All eyes are now on Hurricane Isaias – the first hurricane this season in the Atlantic Basin and the latest first hurricane in more than one hundred years. With favorable environmental conditions headed by very warm sea surface temperatures of around 30 degrees Celsius, Isaias is likely to climb to a strong category 2 status in the near term, and a “major” category 3 classification cannot be completely ruled out. Landfall is likely to occur late Friday somewhere in the region of Mobile Bay and there can be some weakening just before landfall.
Heavy rain, damaging wind gusts and high storm surge will take place along the central Gulf coast and severe weather will become a risk on Friday night and Saturday in the Deep South: especially, to the right of the northward-moving storm track. After landfall, the impact from Isaias is likely to continue well to the north of the northern Gulf with its rain shield likely moving as far north as the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US with some heavy rain on the table around here by later in the weekend.
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The tropics are alive and well and we now have a named tropical storm, Isaias, over the southwestern Gulf of America where water temperatures are near 30 degrees (C)...plenty capable of supporting a late season hurricane. TS Isaias is very likely to become the Atlantic Basin’s first hurricane of the season and can hit the central Gulf coast on Friday night or early Saturday...perhaps as a cat 2 hurricane. While landfall is likely to be in the region between southeast Louisiana and the western part of Florida’s Panhandle, all Gulf residents from Texas to Florida should closely monitor this system.
After landfall, the impact from Isaias is likely to continue well to the north of the northern Gulf with its rain shield possibly moving as far as the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US by later in the weekend. Elsewhere on the tropical scene, Hurricane Rachel over the eastern Pacific is currently churning to the west-northwest; however, it will take a drastic turn to the northeast in coming days and head towards the northern Baja California region with impacts on the way for much of the western US including an added contribution to snow in the Northern Rocky Mountain States.
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The day begins with some of the coolest temperatures so far this season, but they should climb to near 70 degrees during the afternoon hours boosted by copious amounts of sunshine. The next couple of days will feature continued sunshine and comfortably warm conditions with high pressure in control across the eastern states.
Meanwhile, a tropical system in the southwestern Gulf has intensified into named (Isaias) tropical storm status and it is likely to become the first hurricane of the Atlantic Basin tropical season by the end of the week. The likely track would bring this tropical storm into the central Gulf coast region by Friday evening or so…somewhere between SE Louisiana and the western part of Florida’s Panhandle. After that, the remnants of Isaias are likely to push northward towards the Ohio Valley and rain can spread north and east all the way to the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US by the second half of the weekend.
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The day begins with some of the coolest temperatures so far this season and they’ll climb to the middle 60’s for the afternoon hours boosted by copious amounts of sunshine. Another chilly night is on tap with early morning lows on Wednesday in the middle 40’s in many suburban locations. The air mass will modify some during the mid-week and high pressure will assure quiet, dry weather through the remainder of the week. Meanwhile, a tropical system in the southwestern Gulf can become the first hurricane of the Atlantic Basin tropical season by this weekend as it begins to take on a northward track. Still several days to go, but this system could end up hitting somewhere between Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle and could ultimately bring some rainfall to the Mid-Atlantic region by the early part of next week.
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All in all, this looks like a relatively quiet and dry week for the continental US, but tropical systems may change that in a big way by this weekend or the early part of next week. There are not one, not two, but three tropical systems that will have to be closely monitored in coming days...two in the eastern Pacific and one in the Gulf. The only one of the three systems that is currently named is “Rachel” which is a minimal hurricane in the eastern Pacific that is on a seemingly harmless westerly track during the next few days. After that, however, there are signs that “Rachel” will take a drastic turn from a westerly direction to northeasterly, and this could bring its moisture field into the southwestern US and potentially, well up to the north of there.
The second tropical wave in the eastern Pacific should strengthen in the near term to become a named tropical storm and potentially, it can attain classification as a hurricane. This trailing system is likely to turn into Mexico and ultimately, its moisture field can impact the southwestern or south-central states. Meanwhile, a tropical wave now over the very warm waters of the southwestern Gulf of America can intensify into named tropical storm status and potentially into the season’s first hurricane for the Atlantic Basin as it pushes towards the northern Gulf region by the weekend…and potentially, well to the north of there.
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A cold front has pushed farther to the east of the area and high pressure will follow into the northeastern part of the nation. This high pressure system had its origins in Canada and will bring cooler temperatures here through much of the week and dry conditions as well. In fact, the coolest weather so far this season is likely during the next couple of nights with overnight lows in the 40’s.
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A cold front will reach the area early tonight and likely bring with it some shower activity and its passage late tonight will pave the way for a cooler weekend. An area of moisture in the southeastern states will consolidate along the frontal boundary zone and make a push to the north and east later in the weekend. This will likely result in some showers around here on Saturday and then again late Saturday night and Sunday and a thunderstorm or two can be mixed into the picture. The first half of next week looks quite cool with temperatures dropping to well below normal levels by Tuesday and Wednesday and overnight lows in the 40’s.
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After a couple more warm and generally dry days in the Mid-Atlantic region, a cold frontal system will arrive on Friday night and showers are on the table. It’ll turn cooler behind the front for the weekend and we’ll have to watch a low pressure system that is likely to form along the frontal boundary zone in the southeastern states. This system will push to the northeast during the second half of the weekend and it can produce some rain around here on Saturday night and Sunday.
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The next few days should feature plenty of sunshine across the Mid-Atlantic region and warm conditions as high pressure edges into the area. A cold front arrives on Friday night and can produce some scatter shower activity and slightly cooler conditions will follow for the weekend. An area of low pressure will develop along the frontal boundary zone in the southeastern states and it could come close enough on Sunday to produce some shower activity; however, high pressure to the north will try to prevent that from happening.
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The slow-moving nor’easter that plagued the Mid-Atlantic region throughout the weekend is now gone from the picture and some improvement will take place to go along with comfortable temperatures. In fact, the next few days will be rather comfortable as we end September and begin October. A weak cold front arrives at the end of the week and it can bring some shower activity to the Mid-Atlantic region on Friday night and Saturday. Another system comes out of the Gulf states on Sunday and it could produce some rain in our area for the second half of the weekend.
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