All residents from North Carolina to Florida should closely monitor Tropical Storm Dorian over the next few days as it can have a major impact by later this weekend or early next week in any part of this region. Tropical Storm Dorian has strengthened over the past 12-18 hours and has effectively fought off dry air over the Caribbean Sea. In addition, the current track will take the storm over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands in the near term – largely avoiding the island of Hispaniola which could have resulted in substantial weakening given its rugged terrain. Once TS Dorian makes it past the Caribbean islands and into the southwestern Atlantic, it’ll move over very warm waters and encounter more favorable environmental conditions (e.g., low wind shear) for intensification. If TS Dorian doesn’t reach hurricane status in the next several hours, it is very likely to in the next day or two once out over the southwest Atlantic Ocean and “major” (category 3+) hurricane status is certainly on the table in a few days.
Read More
Tropical Storm Dorian has increased slightly in intensity over the past 24 hours and it is now headed towards Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. The overall scituation is looking more ominous as the storm looks likely it'll avoid much interaction with Hispaniola and it has effectively battled the dry air over the Caribbean. Once it passes by the Caribbean islands, it'll move over very warm waters of the southwestern Atlantic and intensification to hurricane status is quite likely. By the weekend, we could very well be dealing with a cat 1 or 2 hurricane closing in on the east coast of Florida, but all residents from the Carolinas to Florida should stay on guard.
Read More
An upper-level trough has set up shop to our west and this has resulted in plenty of moisture for our area and the chance for showers and thunderstorms will continue for another couple of days. On the tropical scene, a tropical system off the east coast will continue to push to the northeast over the next couple days and it could intensify into tropical storm status. Tropical Storm ‘Dorian’ has picked up slightly in intensity during the past 24 hours as it closes in on the eastern part of the Caribbean Sea. It is likely to encounter some dry air over the next couple of days and could take a path near or over Puerto Rico and then the island of Hispaniola.
Read More
After a quiet start to the month in terms of Atlantic Basin tropical activity, the last week of August is beginning with one tropical system over the western Atlantic Ocean and a tropical storm nearing the Caribbean Sea. Tropical Storm Dorian is fast approaching the Windward Islands and it could become a hurricane once over the warm waters of the eastern Caribbean. There is currently some dry air over the Caribbean Sea out ahead of Tropical Storm Dorian which could limit its intensification prospects later in the week and its ultimate track will be quite crucial. A track over the rugged terrain of Hispaniola Island, for example, would likely weaken the system, but that is not a certainty at this point. Finally, the eventual path and intensification of the initial tropical system over the western Atlantic could, in turn, have an impact on TS Dorian depending on its movement and development in coming days.
Read More
An upper-level trough has set up shop just to our west and this has aided in pushing deep moisture into our area and the result is likely to be more in the way of light-to-moderate rain and possibly a thunderstorm or two. In fact, the chances for rain will remain for the next couple of days as we turn quite warm again in northern Alabama. On the tropical scene, a tropical system off the east coast will continue to push to the northeast over the next couple days and it could intensify into tropical storm status. Tropical Storm ‘Dorian’ has picked up slightly in intensity during the past 24 hours as it closes in on the Windward Islands and eastern Caribbean. Its maximum sustained winds are now up to 60 mph with movement to the west at 14 mph.
Read More
A refreshing air mass for this time of year has arrived and the cold front that ushered in this change it is only slowing grinding its way through the region. As a result, occasional showers will continue this afternoon in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor and some of the rain can come down hard at times. There can also be an embedded thunderstorm or two along the frontal boundary zone; primarily, to the south of the PA/MD border.
On the tropical scene, low pressure just east of the Upper Florida Keys at mid-day will slowly drift west over the next day or so which will move it over the Florida Peninsula and this should limit development. After that, this tropical system should push back to the northeast and over the western Atlantic where sea surface temperatures are running at warmer-than-normal levels. Consequently, this system should intensify later in the weekend and into the early part of next week - perhaps becoming the next named tropical storm or even a hurricane.
Read More
A frontal system will drop southeastward into the Tennessee Valley today and it’ll keep it quite unsettled around here with the continuing threat of showers and thunderstorms. The good news is that the excessive heat of earlier this week will be replaced by a more comfortable air mass and highs will generally fall in the mid-to-upper 80’s range during the next several days.
Read More
There is a refreshing air mass headed our way for this weekend and there are signs that there could be a repeat performance for next (Labor Day) weekend as well with both air masses backed up by strong high pressure to the north and west. The transition from today’s warmth and high humidity to below-normal temperatures will likely come with one more round of heavy rainfall and strong thunderstorms as the cold from arrives late this evening. The threat for showers and thunderstorms will continue into Friday as the front grinds its way through the region, but late tomorrow and much of the weekend will feature drier weather and comfortable temperatures and humidity levels.
On the tropical scene, low pressure will meander off the eastern seaboard over the next several days and given the warm waters in that part of the western Atlantic, tropical storm formation is not out of the question. Later next week or during the Labor Day weekend, there are signs for some potential activity over the Gulf of Mexico where sea surface temperatures are quite warm as well.
Read More
A frontal system will drop southeastward over the next couple of days from the northern US towards this area and it’ll keep it quite unsettled around here with the continuing threat of showers and thunderstorms. In fact, a very moist environment will make the chances for showers and thunderstorms quite high during the next couple of days and any rain can be heavy at times. Temperatures will trend downward from highs in the lower 90’s this afternoon to the mid 80’s by early next week as a more comfortable air mass pushes into the Tennessee Valley.
Read More
There is a much cooler air mass headed this way for Friday, Saturday and Sunday and it’ll be an active stretch of weather in the Mid-Atlantic as we make that transition from today’s heat and humidity to the weekend comfort. There is a threat for strong-to-severe thunderstorms later today and tonight in the Mid-Atlantic region and northeast US as a surface low pressure trough will combine with high humidity and upper-level energy to destabilize the atmosphere later in the day. The threat for showers and thunderstorms will continue from Thursday/Thursday night into Friday as a strong cool front only slowly grinds its way through the region. Elsewhere, a minimal tropical storm (Chantal) has formed out over the open Atlantic Ocean and is no threat to the US; however, another system now near the Bahamas will have to be closely monitored in the coming week or so.
Read More
