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Blog

Weather forecasting and analysis, space and historic events, climate information

Filtering by Category: HSV

7:00 AM | *The remains of Cristobal continue to push northward over the Mississippi River Valley*

Paul Dorian

The remains of Cristobal continue to move to the north through the Mississippi Valley and strong moisture advection will once again increase the chances of thunderstorms in the PM hours. A surface cold front will move through the region on Wednesday bringing an additional chance of showers and thunderstorms, but cooler and drier air will push in behind it for the latter part of the week.

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7:00 AM | *Remnants of Cristobal to push north and impact the Tennessee and Mississippi Valleys*

Paul Dorian

The remains of Tropical Storm Cristobal will push northward over the next few days producing heavy rainfall all along the Mississippi Valley from the Gulf of Mexico to the Canadian border. Outer bands of the tropical system will indeed have an impact in this area generating a chance of showers and thunderstorms, but with high pressure just to our east, the impact will be rather limited. By tomorrow morning, the remnants of Cristobal should be centered over southern Missouri and moving rather quickly to the north. The next system to have an impact here will be a cold front that should swing through the Tennessee Valley on Wednesday.

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11:00 AM (Fri.) | **Continued unsettled conditions with additional very heavy rainfall and strong storms…nicer weather Sun/Mon…Cristobal to turn north and approach the north-central Gulf on Sunday**

Paul Dorian

There are two important weather stories here at the end of the work week with continued very unsettled weather conditions in the Mid-Atlantic region and also tropical depression Cristobal which remains just inland over the Yucatan Peninsula region of Mexico at mid-day. The surge of summer-like heat and humidity into the Mid-Atlantic region on Wednesday was accompanied by severe thunderstorm activity and a stalled out frontal boundary zone will remain the focus area for showers and thunderstorms over the next 24 hours or so. Any rainfall in the Mid-Atlantic region can be heavy at times with the potential of localized flash flooding and any thunderstorm that forms can be strong-to-severe with gusty winds.

Meanwhile, tropical depression is parked inland over Mexico, but it is likely to move back out over the open warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico and take a turn to the north this weekend. There is a chance that Cristobal – the third named tropical system of this young tropical season – will close in on the north-central Gulf coastal region by the end of the weekend and all eyes from the Panhandle of Florida to Texas should remained focused on this threat.

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7:00 AM | **Cristobal to turn north this weekend and likely in the vicinity of the north-central Gulf coast by late Sunday**

Paul Dorian

Tropical depression Cristobal remains parked just inland over Mexico this morning, but it should head out over the open warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico by tonight and then move generally in a northward direction over the next couple of days. This kind of a track would bring Cristobal in the vicinity of southern Louisiana by late in the weekend likely as a strong tropical storm, but there is the chance that it reaches minimal hurricane status - all should closely monitor the situation from the Panhandle of Florida-to-Texas.

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9:30 AM (Wed.) | ***Sudden burst of summer to be accompanied by strong-to-severe storms…potential of heavy rain bands on Thursday…Tropical Storm Cristobal could impact the central Gulf coast***

Paul Dorian

There are two important weather stories here at mid-week with a sudden surge of summer-like conditions into the Mid-Atlantic region and the development of a tropical storm in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. The surge of summer-like heat and humidity into the Mid-Atlantic region will be accompanied by some strong-to-severe thunderstorm activity in some spots later today and tonight as a cold front approaches from the northwest. The highest probability of the severe storm activity will be to the north of the PA/MD border with one shot around mid-day and then another shot from later this afternoon into tonight. This front stalls nearby on Thursday and this could result in some heavy rain bands tomorrow and tomorrow night in the Mid-Atlantic region.

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Cristobal has intensified in the overnight hours, but it may very well weaken over the next couple of days as it moves inland over Mexico. However, by the end of the week, TS Cristobal is likely to move back out over the open waters of the Gulf of Mexico and take a turn to the north this weekend. There is a chance that Cristobal – the third tropical storm of this young tropical season – will close in on the central Gulf coastal region by the end of the weekend and all eyes should remained focused on this threat from the Panhandle of Florida to Texas.

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7:00 AM | **All eyes on the Gulf of Mexico**

Paul Dorian

A summer-like weather pattern is in store around here for the rest of the work week and also for the upcoming weekend as well with temperatures not far from the 90 degree mark for highs each day. There will also be the chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms on a daily basis this week, but much of the time will be rain-free. The next chance for these showers and storms will likely come on Thursday and Thursday night as a frontal system moves into the vicinity. Elsewhere, all eyes on the Gulf of Mexico as Tropical Storm Cristobal should head northward over the next few days towards the central/western Gulf coast.

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7:00 AM | *Summer-like weather remainder of the week in the Tennessee Valley and it'll continue this weekend as well*

Paul Dorian

A summer-like pattern is in store for the rest of the week and weekend with temperatures not far from the 90 degree mark for highs each day. There will also be the chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms on a daily basis this week, but much of the time will be rain-free. Elsewhere, all eyes are on the Gulf of Mexico this week as conditions are favorable for potential tropical activity.

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7:00 AM | *Setting up for a nice weekend in the Tennessee Valley following passage of cold frontal system*

Paul Dorian

An unsettled weather pattern will continue across the Tennessee Valley today as a cold front approaches from the northwest and it will result in additional showers and thunderstorms. Some of the morning rain can be heavy at times and any storm that forms later today can produce heavy rainfall, gusty winds and even small hail is a possibility. The cold front will pave the way for a comfortable weekend across the region with highs on both days near or slightly above the 80 degree mark. On the tropical scene, there continue to be signs that a tropical storm or hurricane could form over the Gulf of Mexico late next week or during the second week of the month of June (which begins on Monday) and we’ll continue to monitor those prospects.

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12:00 PM (Thursday) | *Tropical threat on the table for the Gulf of Mexico region from late next week into the following (second) week of June*

Paul Dorian

The “official” Atlantic Basin tropical season begins on Monday, June 1st, but nature itself has, of course, gotten off to an early start. This actually continues a trend for a pre-June 1st start to the tropical season as there has been a named tropical (or sub-tropical) system in each of the last five years. Tropical Storm Arthur brushed the North Carolina coastline about ten days ago and Tropical Storm Bertha became the second storm of this young season and came ashore on Wednesday in South Carolina. There are signs that the active and early start to the 2020 tropical season will continue as we transition into the month of June which begins on Monday. In fact, there are reasons to believe that the Gulf of Mexico region could feature a tropical storm or even a hurricane by late next week or during the following (second) week of June.

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