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Blog

Weather forecasting and analysis, space and historic events, climate information

Filtering by Category: HSV

7:00 AM | *"Eta" impacting the Florida Keys today and the rest of southern Florida*

Paul Dorian

Temperatures will remain above-normal into mid-week across the Tennessee Valley as an upper-level trough to our west produces a persistent southwesterly flow of air around here. Daytime highs through mid-week will average some ten degrees above-normal with temperatures peaking in the mid and upper 70’s across northern Alabama. On the tropical scene, Tropical Storm Eta could reach hurricane status shortly as it impacts southern Florida and the Florida’s Keys. It’ll likely push into the eastern Gulf of Mexico by the middle of the week and perhaps approach the west coast of Florida by later in the week.

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7:00 AM | *An extended stretch of mild weather for the eastern half of the nation*

Paul Dorian

An extended stretch of mild weather has begun in the eastern half of the nation as strong high pressure ridging dominates at all levels of the atmosphere. Given the time of year with increasingly long nights, this mild weather pattern will be quite conducive to the formation of late night and early morning fog. At the same time, much of the western US experiences will experience colder-than-normal conditions in coming days with upper-level low pressure in control. On the tropical scene, the remnants of Hurricane Eta are likely to re-emerge over the Caribbean Sea later today and could pose a threat to Cuba and southern Florida by early next week.

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7:00 AM | *Remains of Eta to re-emerge back out over the Caribbean Sea*

Paul Dorian

High pressure well to our north will keep control of the weather around here for the next several days as it creates dry weather and comfortable temperatures. On the tropical scene, the remnants of Hurricane Eta are likely to re-emerge over the Caribbean Sea by early this weekend and could pose a threat to Cuba and southern Florida by the end of the upcoming weekend.

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7:00 AM | *Hurricane Eta slamming Central America...possible threat to Cuba, southern Florida by early next week*

Paul Dorian

High pressure well to our north will keep control of the weather around here for the next several days as it creates dry pattern with comfortable temperatures. On the tropical scene, Hurricane Eta has come ashore in Nicaragua as a major hurricane and it will likely push back out over the Caribbean Sea by later in the weekend. After that, Eta is likely to become a threat to Cuba and perhaps even to southern Florida by the latter part of the weekend or early part of next week.

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12:30 PM (Tues.) | *Hurricane Eta inches closer to Nicaragua…to pound Central America with tremendous rainfall amounts…threat from Eta likely shifts to Cuba, southern Florida later this weekend*

Paul Dorian

Eta is a “major” hurricane and is edging its way to the northeastern coastline of Nicaragua in Central America. The extreme strength of Hurricane Eta combined with its very slow movement is bad news as it will likely result in catastrophic wind damage, tremendous rainfall amounts of up to three feet in some spots, and landslides in some of the higher terrain sections of Central America. After landfall in northeastern Nicaragua later today, Hurricane Eta will inch slowly westward over the next couple of days and push over Honduras on Thursday. Later in the week, a developing trough over the northern Gulf of Mexico should cause Eta (or its remnants) to turn northward and then to the northeast. This change in course will likely result in a re-strengthening of Eta as it pushes back out over the open waters of the western Caribbean Sea by the early part of the weekend and then the threat from this tropical system will perhaps shift to Cuba and southern Florida by the latter part of the weekend or early part of next week.

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7:00 AM | *Tropical threats not done yet for the Gulf region and SE US*

Paul Dorian

The calendar has flipped to November, but the unfolding weather pattern suggests tropical threats are not over just yet for the Gulf of Mexico and southeast US. Hurricane Eta has strengthened into a strong category 4 storm in the western Caribbean and it is headed for a landfall in Nicaragua early today. After landfall, Hurricane Eta will push westward and likely reach Honduras later in the week and then it may skirt Belize as it heads back out to the open waters of the still very warm western Caribbean Sea. It is at this time that the concern may begin to increase significantly for residents in Cuba, the Gulf of Mexico, and the Southeast US as whatever remains of Eta could re-strengthen and push northward by early next week.

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12:30 PM (Monday) | *Tropical threats not over yet for Gulf of Mexico, southeast US…unfolding weather pattern is favorable for potential impact next week*

Paul Dorian

The calendar has flipped to November, but the unfolding weather pattern suggests tropical threats are not over just yet for the Gulf of Mexico and southeast US. Hurricane Eta has strengthened into a strong category 2 storm in the western Caribbean and it is headed for a landfall in Central America in the near term – likely as a “major” hurricane (i.e., category 3 or higher). In fact, there is a decent chance that Hurricane Eta strengthens into category 4 “major” hurricane status before making landfall early Tuesday in the country of Nicaragua. After landfall, Hurricane Eta will push westward and likely reach Honduras later in the week and then it may skirt Belize as it heads back to the open waters of the still warm western Caribbean Sea. It is at this time that the concern may begin to increase significantly for residents in the Gulf of Mexico and Southeast US as whatever remains of Eta could re-strengthen and push northward towards the US by early next week.

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7:00 AM | **Chilly today and patchy frost possible in the overnight hours**

Paul Dorian

A strong cold front has ushered in colder air for the Tennessee Valley as we begin the new week and highs will be confined to the 50’s this afternoon. It’ll be cold tonight and patchy frost is possible in the late night hours with overnight lows in the middle 30’s. High pressure takes full control at mid-week and the second half of the week will become quite comfortable with the 70’s for highs again as we approach and begin the weekend.

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7:00 AM | *Yet another tropical wave to monitor as we close out the month of October*

Paul Dorian

A cooler air mass has pushed into the Tennessee valley following the passage of a cold front and it’ll remain pretty comfortable through the upcoming weekend. Another cold front will drop through the area on Sunday night and usher in a chilly air mass to start the new work week. On the tropical scene, the remnants of “Zeta” have pushed off the east coast and now there is another tropical wave to monitor over the southeastern part of the Caribbean Sea. If this new tropical wave becomes a named storm – and there is a pretty decent chance of that - then this would create a tie with 2005 for the highest number of named systems (28) in a given Atlantic Basin tropical season.

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11:20 AM (Thurs.) | *Heavy rain with the remains of Zeta…cold tomorrow with snow in parts of the NE US…first freeze tomorrow night…a cold Halloween…another cold blast coming with “lake effect” snow*

Paul Dorian

The remains of Hurricane Zeta are now racing to the northeast and are resulting in a widespread heavy rain event today from the Appalachian Mountains to New England. This system will push off the Mid-Atlantic coastline early tonight, but a second low will form in the same general region by early tomorrow as a vigorous upper-level low arrives from the Tennessee Valley. This second storm will pull in colder air from the northwest by early tomorrow and the rain is likely to change to snow in interior, higher elevations sections of the Northeast US with small accumulations on the table in places like the Poconos (PA), Catskills, and Hudson Valley region of New York State. The first freeze will take place late tomorrow night in many spots of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US and a cold Halloween Day will follow. Another cold blast arrives on Sunday night and the first day of the new work week on Monday will feature windy and cold weather conditions with “lake effect” snows around the Great Lakes and to the western side of the Appalachians.

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