After the severe weather of yesterday, much calmer conditions are coming to the Tennessee Valley as we close out the work week, but the calm will be short-lived. The weekend will become quite unstable with the threat for showers and thunderstorms on Saturday, Saturday night and Sunday morning ahead of the next strong frontal system. Given the heavy rainfall of yesterday, flash flooding will likely be a serious threat over the weekend with the additional heavy rainfall expected. A cold front moves through the region later in the day on Sunday bringing us some relief as we start the new work week, but even that looks to be short-lived.
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The first significant severe weather outbreak of the season took place last week across the Deep South and Tennessee Valley with more than 50 tornadoes recorded and there will be a repeat performance today in much of the same general part of the country. Numerous ingredients are coming together for a widespread severe weather outbreak from later today into tonight extending from the Deep South-to-the Tennessee Valley-to-the Ohio Valley. The focus of the action today will likely be in states like Mississippi, Alabama and Tennessee where severe weather can include large hail, damaging wind gusts and several long-track strong tornadoes. The system that is the main culprit behind today’s severe weather outbreak will push into the eastern Great Lakes by later tonight and winds could gust past 50 mph on Friday in the Mid-Atlantic region.
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*Another dangerous set up for the Deep South*
With a deep moist layer of air in place, widespread showers and thunderstorms are likely from today into tonight. Some of the rain will be heavy at times with localized flooding a threat. There is also a decent chance that some of the thunderstorms today can reach severe levels with downpours, damaging wind gusts, hail and even isolated tornadoes on the table. A strong cool front will clear the area by early tomorrow paving the way for nice weather to end the work week, but there will be a more instability this weekend – and chance of more showers and storms.
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Last week, the first significant severe weather outbreak of the season so far took place in the Deep South/Tennessee Valley with more than 50 tornadoes recorded and tomorrow may bring a repeat performance in the same general region. On Thursday and Thursday night, there is the potential for an outbreak of severe thunderstorms across states like Mississippi, Alabama and Tennessee and the threat will include large hail, damaging wind gusts and several long-track strong tornadoes. Numerous ingredients will come together on Thursday to generate very strong upward motion in the atmosphere needed for a widespread severe weather outbreak. These ingredients will include a strong low-level jet streak, sharp surface temperature gradient, rapidly strengthening surface low pressure, and an influx of low-level very warm and humid air from the Gulf of Mexico into the Deep South/Tennessee Valley. The severe weather threat will shift into the Ohio Valley by late tomorrow night.
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An unsettled pattern set up yesterday across the Tennessee Valley as an upper-level trough of low pressure pushed to the east and it’ll become even more active for tonight, Thursday and Thursday night. With a deep moist layer of air in place, widespread showers and thunderstorms are likely from tonight into tomorrow night and some of the rain can be heavy at times with localized flooding a threat. There is also a decent chance that some of the thunderstorms that form on Thursday afternoon and evening reach severe levels with hail and even isolated tornadoes on the table. A strong cool front will clear the area by early Friday paving the way for nice weather to end the work week, but there will be a little instability in the atmosphere on both weekend days.
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An unsettled pattern sets up today as an upper-level trough of low pressure approaches the region from the west. As a result, the threat of showers will be persistent through the next few days and there can be thunderstorms mixed in. The potential for heavy rainfall is on the table for Thursday with the approach of a strong frontal system. By late in the week, this frontal system will clear through the area and leading to nice weather as we close out the work week and head into the upcoming weekend.
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High pressure will shift to the east of here today and this will result in a southerly flow of air boosting temperatures to 70+ degrees by later in the day. The weather will become more active later tonight and Tuesday as a cold front approaches the region increasing the chances of showers and thunderstorms. After the passage of the frontal system, the weather will remain active again during the second half of the week as another storm system follows in its footsteps. In fact, the pattern looks wet enough later in the week that localized flooding may be on the table with the potential of some heavy rainfall.
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After a very active day and night in the Tennessee Valley, the weather will quiet down some time as upper-level low passes to the north. Noticeably cooler air will move in behind the exiting cold front with temperatures some ten degrees lower than yesterday. Showers may linger early in the day, but drier this afternoon should result in rain-free conditions across northern Alabama. It remains cool on Friday, but a warming trend this weekend will feature high temperatures back in the middle 60’s on Sunday afternoon.
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A very active weather pattern for the eastern half of the nation during the next few days which will include the first significant severe weather outbreak of the season, the first soaking rain event in weeks across the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US, and a changeover of rain-to-accumulating snow in many areas. Severe thunderstorms later today and tonight in the Deep South/Tennessee Valley will be capable of producing torrential rainfall, large hail, damaging wind gusts and tornadoes. A particularly dangerous situation is likely to develop later today in the Mississippi/Alabama region where numerous ingredients are coming together for high probabilities of severe weather. The severe weather threat will shift eastward to the Carolinas and Virginia on Thursday and continue into early Friday. The same storm system that will be contributing to the severe weather outbreak will result in a soaking rain event for the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US on Thursday and Thursday night – the first significant rainfall in weeks in many of those locations. As colder air wraps into the low pressure system later tomorrow night, rain will change to snow in a northwest-to-southeast fashion and there can be snow all the way down into the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor by early Friday.
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A very active day and night is coming to the Tennessee Valley with the chance of numerous severe thunderstorms containing damaging wind gusts and heavy rain. In addition to the threat of damaging winds and heavy rain, hail and even isolated tornadoes are on the table from later this morning through the evening hours. The unsettled weather is being caused in part by a very strong upper-level low pressure system that is now moving east from the middle of the country. Strong surface low pressure will develop over the OK/TX Panhandles later today as this upper-level feature passes overhead. Southwesterly flow aloft in this area will increase moisture levels and - as a warm front pushes to the north - showers and thunderstorms are likely to break out in the Tennessee Valley and they may come in three different waves.
Round 1 may take place in the morning hours as a warm front pushes northward through the region. Later today and following the passage of the warm front, round 2 will take place with scattered convection in a warm and humid air mass. Finally, another line of storms can develop tonight ahead of an advancing cold frontal system. The bottom line…all of northern Alabama and southern Tennessee needs to prepare for the potential of numerous severe storms through the day and evening hours.
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