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Blog

Weather forecasting and analysis, space and historic events, climate information

Filtering by Category: HSV

****TS Debby to move back over water...a second landfall early Thursday...extreme rainfall amounts in South Carolina...Mid-Atlantic gets very heavy rainfall/severe storms later today/tonight****

Paul Dorian

Tropical Storm Debby is about to move back out over the open waters of the Southwest Atlantic Ocean…just off the coast of South Carolina. This system will re-intensify some during the next 24 hours or so with a chance of getting back to category 1 hurricane status and then it’ll likely make a second landfall early Thursday in South Carolina. Whether or not Debby returns to hurricane status, there will be extreme rainfall amounts in portions of the Southeast US during the next couple of days centered on the state of South Carolina.

Farther north, much of the Mid-Atlantic region will experience very heavy rainfall and severe thunderstorms from later today into early tomorrow due to a combination of tropical moisture feeding northward from Tropical Storm Debby and an incoming strong cold frontal system. The remnants of Tropical Storm Debby will finally get kicked to north late in the week with heavy rainfall and potentially even tornadoes a threat in the entire Mid-Atlantic region on Friday/Friday night.

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2:45 PM | **"Debby" to produce tremendous rainfall amounts in the SE US...2nd landfall likely after some re-intensification...enhanced heavy rain threat in Mid-Atl. begins as early as late tomorrow**

Paul Dorian

Debby made landfall this morning in the Big Bend region of Florida’s Gulf coast as a category 1 hurricane. While Debby has weakened to “tropical storm” status, it will likely produce tremendous rainfall amounts in portions of the Southeast US during the next few days as its northward progression is stymied by high pressure ridging building to its north. The remnants of Debby will then push off the Georgia/South Carolina coastline by mid-week and it can undergo some re-intensification over the open waters of the southwestern Atlantic. In fact, there is the chance that Debby returns to category 1 hurricane status depending on its length of time over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean. By Wednesday night or early Thursday, Debby will likely make a second landfall perhaps over the northeastern coastline of South Carolina.

Farther north, tropical moisture associated with Debby can enhance the threat for heavy rainfall in the Mid-Atlantic region as soon as late tomorrow as it interacts with an incoming cold frontal system. Following the frontal passage on Wednesday, it turns much cooler in the Mid-Atlantic region for the second half of the week with afternoon highs generally confined to the 70’s in places like DC, Philly and New York City. There will also be a continuing threat of tropical rainfall later this week as the remnants of Debby finally kick out of the SE US by the end of the week and push to the north…several inches of rain are on the table in the Mid-Atlantic between now and the end of the upcoming weekend.

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6:30 AM | *Lower 90's to start the week with an isolated PM shower or thunderstorm*

Paul Dorian

The weather to start the week will be very warm, humid and there can be isolated afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Tropical Storm Debby will pass by to our east over the next few days and we’ll be under control of high pressure centered to our northeast. this area will be dominated by high pressure ridging centered to our north. Temperatures can peak later today in the lower 90’s and then similar high temperatures are likely into Thursday, but it should get a tad cooler by week’s end.

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8:00 AM (Friday) | ***Tropical threat for the eastern Gulf of Mexico by later this weekend...system may slow down...La Nina revisited...a recent sharp drop in temperatures across central Pacific***

Paul Dorian

The Atlantic Basin tropical scene has been largely quiet during the past few weeks after the dissipation of Hurricane Beryl which reached category 5 status over the Caribbean Sea and then ultimately made landfall in Texas as a category 1 storm. There is now a strong tropical wave that is nearing Cuba and it may spill out over the eastern Gulf of Mexico by later this weekend as an intensifying storm. There are signs that at some point early next week the northward progression of this system may be stymied, and a stalling or even a “looping” storm track is on the table. This possibility could lead to some very heavy rainfall amounts in certain locations…a prospect to monitor closely next few days. In fact, we may be dealing with this tropical storm system as late as at the end of next week or weekend somewhere up along the eastern seaboard.

One of the contributing factors to what should be an active next couple of months in the tropical Atlantic Ocean is the strengthening of La Nina across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Sea surface temperatures in that part of the world’s largest ocean have dropped quite sharply during the past week or so suggesting La Nina may indeed be an important (and favorable) factor for development and intensification of tropical storm systems in the Atlantic Basin during the second half of the tropical season.

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7:00 AM | *Hot, humid and somewhat unsettled across the Tennessee Valley next several days*

Paul Dorian

The weather for the remainder of the week and upcoming weekend look rather typical for this time of year with hot and humid conditions and occasional rounds of showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures can peak later today in the middle 90’s and then repeat this performance from tomorrow through the upcoming weekend to go along with that threat of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

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