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Blog

Weather forecasting and analysis, space and historic events, climate information

Filtering by Category: HSV

7:00 AM | ***Occasional showers and thunderstorms...some of the rain will be heavy...wind gusts to 40+ mph and isolated tornadoes on the table as Francine pushes northward to the west of here***

Paul Dorian

Hurricane Francine made landfall late yesterday in central Louisiana and will bring multiple impacts today and tonight to the Tennessee Valley. There will be occasional showers both today and tonight and possible embedded thunderstorms to go along with cooler and windy conditions with gusts to 40 mph or so. In addition, northern Alabama will be on the right side of the northward-moving tropical storm system, and it is in this sector where isolated tornadoes often develop. Any rain that falls today and tonight can be on the heavy side with flash flooding on the table; especially, in convective rain bands.

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2:30 PM (Wed) - **Hurricane Francine closing in on central Louisiana coastline...northward progression of remnants to grind to a halt...strong low pressure forms along east coast by early next week**

Paul Dorian

Hurricane Francine is closing in on the central Louisiana coastline as a strong category 1 storm and maximum sustained winds of around 90 mph. After landfall later today, Francine will slowly weaken as it pushes in a general northeasterly direction reaching southern Mississippi by early Thursday. From there, the remnants of Francine will become increasingly influenced by very strong high pressure ridging over southern Canada and its northward progression will grind to a halt over the western part of the Tennessee Valley. With the atmospheric blocking still in place later this weekend, new low pressure is likely to form somewhere near the Carolina coastline. This system will have plenty of available tropical moisture and its rain field could push slowly to the north early next week…potentially bringing some beneficial rains to the Mid-Atlantic region.

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7:00 AM | ***Hurricane Francine to strike central Louisiana late today as a "cat 2" or strong "cat 1" system***

Paul Dorian

Hurricane Francine intensified into category 1 hurricane status during the overnight hours and it is headed for a landfall late today in the central coastline section of Louisiana. There is an outside chance that Francine strengthen to category 2 status before making landfall late in the afternoon or early part of tonight. After landfall, Francine will slowly weaken on Thursday as it pushes northward over the southern Mississippi River Valley and just to the west of here. The impact here on Thursday and Thursday night will include occasional showers, possible thunderstorms, wind gusts to 40 mph or so, and even isolated tornadoes are on the table. Its northward progress will grind to a halt by the end of the week somewhere over the middle Mississippi Valley region as it begins to become heavily influenced by very strong upper-level high pressure ridging that will park itself over the eastern part of Canada.

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**Hurricane threat for Louisiana with landfall later tomorrow...possibly as a "cat 2" storm...blocking scenario could result in low pressure near east coast early next week**

Paul Dorian

After a lengthy quiet period in the Atlantic Basin with no named tropical storms, Tropical Storm Francine was born early Monday over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, but it has shown little in the way of additional intensification since then. However, all signs point to significant intensification of Francine from later tonight into the day on Wednesday...first into category 1 hurricane status and then possibly reaching category 2 classification later tomorrow as it approaches the Louisiana coastline. Odds favor Francine making landfall late tomorrow somewhere over the central portion of Louisiana’s coastline and its impact will be high all the way into the New Orleans metro area.

After landfall, Francine will slowly weaken on Thursday as it pushes northward over the southern Mississippi River Valley. Its northward progress will then grind to a halt by the end of the week somewhere over the middle Mississippi Valley region as it begins to become heavily influenced by very strong upper-level high pressure ridging that will park itself over the eastern part of Canada. The ultimate result in this atmospheric blocking scenario could be the formation of another low pressure system somewhere along the east coast in about a week’s time.

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7:00 AM | **A hurricane threat for Louisiana on Wednesday...remnants of "Francine" likely to slide just to our west on Thursday**

Paul Dorian

After a lengthy quiet period in the Atlantic Basin with no named tropical storms, Francine was born on Monday morning over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico and it is likely to threaten the Louisiana coastline as a hurricane by later tomorrow. After landfall, Francine will slowly weaken as it pushes north over the southern Mississippi Valley and likely just to the west of  here on Thursday.

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12:00 PM | **Hurricane threat for Louisiana at mid-week...a couple other systems to monitor out in the Atlantic**

Paul Dorian

After a lengthy quiet period in the Atlantic Basin with no named tropical storms, Francine was born this morning over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico and it is likely to threaten the Louisiana coastline on Wednesday as a hurricane. A tropical wave that has been meandering over the warm waters of the SW Gulf in recent days has now attained named tropical storm status and it is likely to strengthen into a hurricane on Tuesday and then head towards the Louisiana coastline for a possible landfall later in the day on Wednesday. Francine is expected to bring heavy rainfall and the risk of flash flooding all the way from coastal sections of far northeast Mexico to southern Mississippi and an increasing likelihood of storm surge inundation.

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12:00 PM | *Climatological peak of the Atlantic Basin tropical season is just around the corner and there are now several systems to monitor after a very quiet stretch*

Paul Dorian

The climatological peak of the Atlantic Basin tropical season is just around the corner and there are now as many as five systems to monitor in coming days after a very lengthy quiet period. In fact, there has not been a newly named tropical storm in the Atlantic Basin since “Ernesto” first reached that designation on August 12th, and this is the longest such quiet stretch since the late 1960’s. With five separate tropical systems currently showing some life in the Atlantic Basin and near-term changes coming to the overall weather pattern, the absence of named tropical storms is very likely to soon come to an end.

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7:00 AM | *Moderately warm for the remainder of the first week in September*

Paul Dorian

Temperatures should be comfortably warm for the remainder of the week with highs today and Thursday likely in the middle 80’s and then closer to the 80 degree mark on Friday, Saturday and Sunday. In terms of rainfall, it looks rain-free today and tonight and then a slight chance of showers return for Thursday and Friday, but then the weekend should turn out to be rain-free.

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