***Hurricane Helene headed for Florida’s Gulf coast likely as a "major" with landfall early Thursday night...Georgia/southern Appalachians to be hit hard***

September 25, 2024Paul Dorian

Tropical Storm Helene has strengthened during the past 24 hours and is on the verge of attaining “category 1” hurricane status with sustained winds of 74-95 mph. All indications are that Helene will undergo rapid intensification during the next 24 hours or so given the combination of favorable environmental conditions such as low vertical wind shear and ample moisture, and its movement over very warm water with high oceanic heat content. This expected intensification of Helene will likely result in attainment of “major” hurricane classification on Thursday as a category 3 storm system with sustained winds of 111 mph – 129 mph. Helene should begin to accelerate tomorrow in a north-to-northeast direction likely resulting in a landfall early tomorrow night along Florida’s “Big Bend” Gulf coastal region. As is typical of northward moving tropical storms, the storm surge should be most impactful to the right of the landfall location potentially affecting coastal sections down to areas just north of Tampa Bay. In addition, there will be the threat of tornadoes to the right of the storm’s track including portions of northern and eastern Florida, Georgia and South Carolina.

After landfall, the remnants of the hurricane will move along at a pretty good clip in a general northward direction through the state of Georgia where there is likely to be significant impact including hurricane-force wind gusts and excessive rainfall amounts. In fact, excessive rainfall may extend to throughout much of the southern Appalachians where strong upsloping winds will enhance upward motion and increase overall amounts. By mid-day on Friday, the tropical system will become increasingly influenced by very strong “blocking” high pressure to the north and an upper-level trough of low pressure located in the southern Mississippi Valley. The tropical low will “rotate around” this upper-level trough of low pressure for a brief time in a pattern known to meteorologists as the “Fujiwhara effect” before it ultimately dissipates and gets absorbed by the upper-level low.

1:00 PM | ***”Major” hurricane threat continues for Florida’s Gulf coast...landfall possible late Thursday in the "Big Bend" region...Georgia to be hit hard as well***

September 24, 2024Paul Dorian

A strong tropical wave continues to churn over the warm waters of the western Caribbean Sea and it is likely to threaten Florida’s Gulf coast as a “major” hurricane by late Thursday. This system should attain named tropical storm status shortly (minimum winds of 39 mph) and then it should take a track in between the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico and the western tip of Cuba as it heads to the southern Gulf of Mexico. Intensification will then continue as it heads on a general northward track over the warm waters of the eastern Gulf and it could climb to “major” hurricane classification (i.e., category 3 or higher) before a likely landfall late Thursday somewhere near Florida’s “Big Bend” Gulf coast region.  

After landfall, the remnants of the hurricane will push in a general northward direction through Georgia and South Carolina producing powerful wind gusts and significant rainfall along the way. At this point, the tropical system will become increasingly influenced by very strong “blocking” high pressure to the north and an upper-level trough of low pressure dropping southeastward into the south-central states. In fact, the tropical low may “rotate around” this incoming upper-level trough of low pressure for a brief time in a pattern known to meteorologists as the “Fujiwhara effect” before it ultimately gets absorbed by the upper-level low..

12:15 PM | ****Hurricane threat for Florida’s Gulf coast later Thursday and it can become a “major”...changing weather pattern results in enhanced upward motion...the "Fujiwhara effect"****

September 23, 2024Paul Dorian

A strong tropical wave has developed over the northwestern Caribbean Sea during the past day or so and it is likely to threaten Florida’s Gulf coast as a hurricane later in the week...potentially a “major” hurricane of category 3 classification or higher. A significant change to the overall large-scale weather pattern in the Atlantic Basin is now underway and it is much more conducive to the formation and intensification of tropical systems. This change is the result of a re-positioning of a tropical disturbance known as the “Madden-Julian Oscillation” and it is leading to enhanced upward motion over the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico. This more favorable weather pattern for tropical cyclone activity will likely last well into the month of October. In the near-term, all residents from New Orleans to Tampa should continue to monitor this current threat closely over the next couple of days.

12:00 PM (Thursday) - ***”Caribbean Sea-to-Gulf of Mexico” significant tropical storm threat continues for later next week as changing weather pattern will result in enhanced upward motion***

September 19, 2024Paul Dorian

The atmosphere is about to undergo a significant change over the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico which will result in enhanced upward motion in that part of the Atlantic Basin and this, in turn, increases the chance for the development of a hurricane later next week. The change in the atmosphere is largely the result of the re-positioning of a tropical disturbance that propagates eastward along the tropics on a regular basis. This undergoing pattern change with enhanced upward motion in the Atlantic Basin may, in fact, result in additional tropical activity that takes us passed this initial threat and well into the month of October.