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Blog

Weather forecasting and analysis, space and historic events, climate information

Filtering by Category: HSV

***An upcoming active pattern with several signals (MJO, SSW, PNA) pointing to additional Arctic air outbreaks for the central and eastern US***

Paul Dorian

The month of December has started off with a few Arctic air outbreaks into the central and eastern US and while the overall pattern may turn somewhat milder for part of next week, there are multiple signals pointing to additional cold air outbreaks from later next week into the month of January. In addition, the unfolding weather pattern appears to be quite active with numerous storm systems to deal going through the second half of the month of December.

One of the signals for additional cold air outbreaks revolves around an oceanic-atmospheric phenomenon known as the Madden-Julian Oscillation or MJO. A second centers around a phenomenon that features warming over the polar region in the upper part of the atmosphere known as the stratosphere. Finally, a teleconnection index known as the Pacific-North American (PNA) is likely to feature a positive phase for much of the rest of the month and this generally favors high pressure ridging across the western US and Canada which, in turn, is usually favorable for cold air outbreaks to make their way from northern Canada into the central and eastern US.

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7:00 AM | **Very chilly air mass floods the eastern states today on the heels of a strong cold frontal passage**

Paul Dorian

Arctic air has flooded the eastern states on the heels of a cold frontal passage and temperatures around here today will be confined to the middle and upper 30’s for afternoon highs. After a cold night, temperatures on Friday will not do much better than today peaking near the 40-degree mark in the afternoon. It does turn milder this weekend and we’ll likely be dealing with some rain for Sunday and Monday of early next week.

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7:00 AM | **Showers and thunderstorms push into the area for tonight and Thanksgiving Day...extended windy and cold pattern begins this weekend**

Paul Dorian

Low pressure will slide from the middle of the country at mid-week and head towards the northeastern states with an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms here later tonight into Thanksgiving Day. It’ll turn colder and windy to follow this system from Friday right through the upcoming weekend.

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***One of the coldest starts to December in many years with a “Siberian” connection…western US snows…interior Northeast snows…Great Lakes snow machine turns on full throttle***

Paul Dorian

One of the biggest weather stories going forward is the cold wave that is coming to much of the nation beginning late this week and likely continuing for much of the first couple weeks of December. In fact, this will likely be one of the coldest starts to the month of December in many years and it will have a “Siberian” connection.

Before we get to the cold wave, there will be a lot of weather to go through across much of the nation with significant snowfall in some areas. Low pressure is currently pushing eastward across the higher elevations of the western US resulting in substantial snow accumulations from the Sierra Nevada Mountains of eastern California to the Colorado Rockies. Some of these locations will end up with snow totals on the order of 1-2 feet before this low spills out into the middle of the nation at mid-week.

From there, this low pressure system will move rather quickly across the Tennessee Valley on Wednesday night and to the southern New England coastline by mid-day Thursday. As a result, rain is likely to reach the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor by late Wednesday night and continue into Thursday (Thanksgiving Day). Farther to the north, accumulating snow is likely to fall from early Thursday into early Friday across interior, higher elevation locations of northern PA, upstate NY and interior New England with several inches on the table.

Following the departure of the low pressure system to the western Atlantic, a northwesterly flow of air will develop across the northeastern quadrant of the nation bringing much colder-than-normal air from Canada into the Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast US. The “Great Lakes snow machine” will get turned on with the much colder-than-normal air flowing over the still relatively warm waters of the Great Lakes from later Friday into Saturday and there is likely to be much more in the way of “lake-effect” snow activity during this upcoming cold wave.

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