The first half of the week will feature quite mild conditions around here with high temperatures in the middle 60’s on each day. It will also be an unsettled weather pattern with a daily shot at some shower activity. Colder air will return by the end of the week following the passage of a late week cold frontal system.
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The month of December has started off with a few Arctic air outbreaks into the central and eastern US and while the overall pattern may turn somewhat milder for part of next week, there are multiple signals pointing to additional cold air outbreaks from later next week into the month of January. In addition, the unfolding weather pattern appears to be quite active with numerous storm systems to deal going through the second half of the month of December.
One of the signals for additional cold air outbreaks revolves around an oceanic-atmospheric phenomenon known as the Madden-Julian Oscillation or MJO. A second centers around a phenomenon that features warming over the polar region in the upper part of the atmosphere known as the stratosphere. Finally, a teleconnection index known as the Pacific-North American (PNA) is likely to feature a positive phase for much of the rest of the month and this generally favors high pressure ridging across the western US and Canada which, in turn, is usually favorable for cold air outbreaks to make their way from northern Canada into the central and eastern US.
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High pressure edges into the area today on the heels of a frontal passage and brings with it plenty of sunshine and chilly conditions. The overall pattern becomes unsettled by the weekend and slightly milder with an increasing chance of showers.
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It turns noticeably milder today across the northern part of Alabama and unsettled as well with the chance of showers and thunderstorms. This milder, unsettled pattern continues on Tuesday and then it turns colder at midweek following the passage of a cold frontal system.
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Arctic air is still in control in much of the eastern US temperatures on Friday will not do much better than yesterday peaking near the 40-degree mark in the afternoon. It does turn milder this weekend and even warmer early next week and we’ll likely be dealing with showers and thunderstorms through much of the Sunday-Tuesday time period.
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Arctic air has flooded the eastern states on the heels of a cold frontal passage and temperatures around here today will be confined to the middle and upper 30’s for afternoon highs. After a cold night, temperatures on Friday will not do much better than today peaking near the 40-degree mark in the afternoon. It does turn milder this weekend and we’ll likely be dealing with some rain for Sunday and Monday of early next week.
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Large and cold high pressure will dominate the scene today across the Southeast US and temperatures later today are likely to have an upper limit of around 40 degrees. It turns a little bit milder at mid-week with highs near 50 degrees, but only to pull back a bit on Thursday and Friday with highs back in the 40’s.
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A cold pattern across the eastern states during this first full week of December and temperatures here should stay below-normal right into the weekend. High pressure will be in control here on Monday and then a weak low pressure will push nearby by the middle of the week.
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Low pressure will slide from the middle of the country at mid-week and head towards the northeastern states with an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms here later tonight into Thanksgiving Day. It’ll turn colder and windy to follow this system from Friday right through the upcoming weekend.
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One of the biggest weather stories going forward is the cold wave that is coming to much of the nation beginning late this week and likely continuing for much of the first couple weeks of December. In fact, this will likely be one of the coldest starts to the month of December in many years and it will have a “Siberian” connection.
Before we get to the cold wave, there will be a lot of weather to go through across much of the nation with significant snowfall in some areas. Low pressure is currently pushing eastward across the higher elevations of the western US resulting in substantial snow accumulations from the Sierra Nevada Mountains of eastern California to the Colorado Rockies. Some of these locations will end up with snow totals on the order of 1-2 feet before this low spills out into the middle of the nation at mid-week.
From there, this low pressure system will move rather quickly across the Tennessee Valley on Wednesday night and to the southern New England coastline by mid-day Thursday. As a result, rain is likely to reach the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor by late Wednesday night and continue into Thursday (Thanksgiving Day). Farther to the north, accumulating snow is likely to fall from early Thursday into early Friday across interior, higher elevation locations of northern PA, upstate NY and interior New England with several inches on the table.
Following the departure of the low pressure system to the western Atlantic, a northwesterly flow of air will develop across the northeastern quadrant of the nation bringing much colder-than-normal air from Canada into the Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast US. The “Great Lakes snow machine” will get turned on with the much colder-than-normal air flowing over the still relatively warm waters of the Great Lakes from later Friday into Saturday and there is likely to be much more in the way of “lake-effect” snow activity during this upcoming cold wave.
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