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Blog

Weather forecasting and analysis, space and historic events, climate information

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****Strong storm pounds western US...reaches northeastern states this weekend...very cold next week...mid-week east coast major storm threat****

Paul Dorian

A major storm system will pound the western states during the next couple of days and it will then trek across the nation and wreak havoc in the eastern states this weekend. In California, the rainfall in coming days will be heavy all along low-lying coastal sections from Oregon to the Mexican border, and snowfall will be measured by the foot in the Sierra Nevada Mountains. By the early part of the upcoming weekend, this same storm system will bring flooding rainfall to the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys and then significant snow is likely on Sunday across interior New York State and New England.

In the Mid-Atlantic region, there will be plenty of rainfall this weekend; however, it is likely to be preceded on the front-end by snow and accumulations are possible; especially, to the north of the PA/MD border. Cold air will pour into the eastern states following this weekend storm system and next week is indeed looking very cold across the eastern two-thirds of the nation. Low pressure is likely to gather strength in the southern states by the middle of next week aided by an influx of Gulf moisture and it could become a major east coast storm system by later Wednesday or Thursday.

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7:00 Am | **Turns warmer this weekend and quite unsettled with showers and thunderstorms likely...some of the weekend rain can be heavy at times**

Paul Dorian

The next couple of days will be rather quiet across the region with high pressure taking control following the passage of a cold front. An active period of weather returns this weekend with warmer conditions and an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms. Some of the rain can be heavy at times later Saturday into Saturday night before some cooler air returns early next week.

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11:30 AM | ***Active pattern continues...double-barrel weekend storm system with snow or ice possible on the front end...rain to follow...possibly heavy...east coast storm threat later next week***

Paul Dorian

One low pressure system is pulling away this morning and another one is following right on its heels and will end up over the eastern Great Lakes by early Thursday. There will be some snow shower activity in the Mid-Atlantic region during the next several hours and then (light) mixed precipitation late today/early tonight should change to plain rain by late tonight/early tomorrow. Another storm system will hit the Mid-Atlantic region during the weekend and it’ll have an impact on both Saturday and Saturday. At the front end, there can be a burst of snow and/or sleet later Saturday morning or mid-day...perhaps even some accumulations north of the PA/MD border...and then rain is likely on Saturday night and Sunday. In fact, some of the rain can be heavy at times which would raise some flooding concerns given the combination of the rain with melting snow. A strong cold front pushes through the Mid-Atlantic later Sunday ushering in much colder-than-normal air mass for the first half of next week. By the middle of next week, we’ll have to watch for the possibility of an east coast storm system that would have plenty of cold air to work with in the Mid-Atlantic region.

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7:00 AM | **Lots of rain next couple of days along with quite mild conditions***

Paul Dorian

The pattern becomes very unsettled today due to a combination of frontal systems leading to periods of rain that can get heavy at times. The threat of rain will continue tonight, tomorrow, and tomorrow night and rainfall totals can exceed a couple inches in many areas. By mid-day Thursday, a much drier air mass should push into the northern Alabama region and it’ll turn quite chilly again leading into the end of the work week.

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****An active February with multiple winter storms...mid-week ice threat in Mid-Atlantic...possible front end snow...back-end plain rain...similar scenario this weekend...snow threat next week****

Paul Dorian

February is now a few days old, and it looks like it will be a very active month with plenty of cold air around and it is likely to feature a polar vortex “split” and high-latitude blocking. There should be plenty of opportunities for snow, ice and rain in the Mid-Atlantic region as we progress through the month with just the next week or so likely to feature as many as three precipitation events. The first opportunity comes at mid-week, and it may turn out to be the first significant icing event in quite awhile for much of the Mid-Atlantic region with possible snow on the front end and plain rain on the back end. A similar scenario may take place this weekend with frozen precipitation possible on the front-end of the next storm system and plain rain on the back end. A third storm may threaten by the middle of next week and this one should have more cold air to work with raising the chance of accumulating snow in the Mid-Atlantic region.

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7:00 AM | *70+ degrees for highs first half of the week*

Paul Dorian

It turns very mild around here for the next few days as south-to-southwest winds develop on the backside of high pressure pushing well to the east of here. Temperatures can peak each day at 70+ degrees right through the mid-week, but it does become more unsettled as the week progresses with an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms.

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****A look ahead to the month of February…a polar vortex split, plenty of cold air around, and a very active pattern which includes the potential of significant icing in some cases****

Paul Dorian

February is now underway and it looks like it will be a very active month with plenty of cold air around and is likely to feature a stratospheric polar vortex split that can impact US temperatures all the way into March. There should be plenty of opportunities for snow, ice and rain in the Mid-Atlantic region and Northeast US as we progress through the new month with just the next week or so likely to feature as many as three precipitation events. Another player on the field that will have to be monitored this month will be the occasional appearance of the Southeast US high pressure ridge – often seen during La Nina winters – and this enhances the possibility of quite warm conditions across the southern states and also chances for severe weather.

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