Low pressure that has produced accumulating snow today in much of the Mid-Atlantic region will shift to the western Atlantic Ocean during the next hour or so; however, it is not necessarily through with our area just yet. Snow is developing in the northwest sector of this eastward-moving storm system and this “backend” snow will impact the region from DC-to-the-Delmarva-to-southern NJ late today and early tonight and likely up across southern PA as well. In fact, there can be additional snow accumulations in some areas of up to a couple of inches before the precipitation shield finally fully departs the Mid-Atlantic region. On the backside of the storm late tonight and Tuesday, stiff NW winds will develop and can gust past 40 mph or so making it feel even colder than the actual air temperatures.
Looking ahead, this cold and active weather pattern threatens to produce another storm system late this week and weekend. This time, the location of the storm development will be way down south likely over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico by week’s end. As such, there can be an impact in the Deep South and this can even include significant accumulating snow and ice across places like Texas and Arkansas. After that, the low pressure system likely heads towards the eastern seaboard and the timing of its intensification along the coast will be critical in determining how much impact there can be in the Mid-Atlantic region and Northeast US. A quick intensification along the Mid-Atlantic coastline could mean significant accumulating snow in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor or the system may “wait” until it pushes farther to the north and east to intensify which would likely limit any big impact to eastern New England.
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December 1776 was a desperate time for George Washington and the American Revolution. Morale was low, hope for winning the war was diminishing, and the Continental Army led by George Washington was thinning in numbers after many battles lost to the British. December began with lots of rain and muddy travel conditions for the men which did not help with their spirits. After retreating through New Jersey, they set up camp on the Pennsylvania side of the Delaware River where the army was met with very cold weather that led to plenty of ice on the water. All in all, things were not looking good for Washington's army. However, George Washington devised a plan that would change the course of the war and the history of our nation.
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The weather on Oahu, Hawaii in the early morning hours of Sunday, December 7th, 1941 was not at all unusual for the time of year with mild temperatures and mainly clear skies. Unfortunately, the weather conditions on that particular day would play a role in the bombing of the U.S. naval base by Japanese fighter planes at Pearl Harbor near Honolulu, Hawaii. As Japanese fighters crossed the Pacific Ocean, they were given hope that their mission would succeed when the announcement was made of “clouds mostly over the mounts…visibility good”. It is believed that the decision to attack on that particular day had plenty to do with the projected favorable weather conditions.
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The weather in Dallas, Texas had been rainy, and the weather forecast was for more rain on November 22nd, 1963. If the forecast had turned out to be correct with more rain on that fateful day, then that would have likely meant that a plexiglass bubble top would have been used on President John F. Kennedy’s 1961 Lincoln Convertible on a planned motorcade through the Dallas metro region. But the weather cleared unexpectedly, the protective top was removed from the car, and shots rang out in the early afternoon hours at Dealey Plaza killing the 35th President and seriously wounding Texas Governor John Connally.
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Forty-nine years have passed since a major storm over the Great Lakes helped to sink the SS Edmund Fitzgerald on Lake Superior taking the lives of all 29 crew members on November 10th, 1975. When launched on June 7, 1958, it was the largest ship on North America's Great Lakes, and to this day she remains the largest to have sunk there. The Edmund Fitzgerald was in the worst possible location during the worst weather of the ferocious storm. The wind and waves from the west hit the freighter broadside as it tried to flee south to safety in Whitefish Bay. The Edmund Fitzgerald was loaded with about 26,000 tons of taconite pellets on November 9th, 1975, at Superior, Wisconsin and was bound for Detroit, Michigan when the storm hit.
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Rapid changes in weather can be experienced in the northeastern US during the latter stages of October as to the west, cold Canadian air masses begin to regularly drop from Canada into the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest and to the east, the Atlantic Ocean remains relatively warm as it loses its stored summer heat more slowly than the continent. In fact, hurricanes can still form over the still relatively warm waters of the Atlantic Ocean and the contrast between the increasingly frequent cold air masses to the west and the warmth to the east often results in powerful storms just offshore. In late October 1991, several ingredients converged to create an immensely powerful storm that took on a few names including “The Halloween Nor’easter” or the “Unnamed Hurricane”. The most well-known name for this storm, however, is “The Perfect Storm” with a book and subsequent film of the same name.
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The World Series begins on Friday night, October 25th, in Los Angeles, California between the LA Dodgers and the New York Yankees. The weather will likely not be much of a factor for Games 1 and 2 with dry and warm conditions expected in southern California and daytime highs not far from 80 degrees. The World Series could end as late as November 2nd this year if all seven games are required to determine a champion. With the extra playoff round added a few years ago, a November finish to the baseball season is going to be more common and the weather can certainly be impactful. In fact, the weather has had a big impact on several World Series games in recent history ranging from biting cold-to-extreme heat and with respect to snow and rain as well.
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Last week, it was the northern lights and now - for another astronomical treat - a comet should be visible to the naked eye during the next week to ten days or so in the western sky after sunset. Comet Tsuchinshan-ATLAS has now exited the sun’s glare having come closest to the sun in late September. It made its closest approach to Earth this past Saturday, October 11th, passing about 44 million miles away. It is now rising a little bit higher each night in the western sky and remaining visible for a little bit longer period; however, it is also going to lose some its brightness with each passing day.
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Galileo turned his primitive telescope towards Jupiter in the early 1600’s and saw tiny specks of light with no discernable features. What a difference 400+ years can make as today’s backyard telescopes can resolve Europa’s disk surprisingly well. Europa is now considered one of the most complex and fascinating worlds in the solar system. Cracks, ridges, and chaotic terrain on the moon's icy crust may offer access to one of the largest oceans in the solar system--and a possible abode for aquatic life. NASA's Europa Clipper spacecraft, due to launch one week from now on October 10th, will conduct a detailed reconnaissance of the moon's surface to help plan future missions including a lander and perhaps even a submarine. Europa Clipper’s main science goal is to determine whether there are places below the surface of Europa that could support life.
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Hurricane Helene has strengthened during the past 24 hours and is now classified as a category 2 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 100 mph. It should continue to intensify today as it closes in on Florida’s Gulf coast with the likelihood of reaching category 3 hurricane status featuring sustained winds of 111 mph or higher. Landfall is expected early tonight along Florida’s “Big Bend” Gulf coastal region – likely as a “major” – with a significant storm surge; especially, just to the right of the landfalling location where levels can reach 15-20 feet. With some acceleration expected later today, Helene will not have much time to weaken after landfall and, as such, it is likely to reach into southern Georgia as a hurricane during the wee hours of the morning. The lasting strength of Helene and its expected track into the Tennessee Valley assures significant impact inland to include the state of Georgia, and an especially vulnerable region is the southern Appalachian Mountains where upsloping winds can result in massive rainfall amounts of 1-2 feet and serious flash flooding.
By mid-day on Friday, the tropical system will become increasingly influenced by very strong “blocking” high pressure to the north and an upper-level trough of low pressure located in the southern Mississippi Valley. The tropical low will “rotate around” this upper-level trough of low pressure for a brief time in a pattern known to meteorologists as the “Fujiwhara effect” before it ultimately dissipates and gets absorbed by the upper-level low.
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