The 2020 Atlantic Basin tropical season has gotten off to a very active start and a parade of systems is going to keep it busy right into the month of September. There are now two tropical depressions in the Atlantic Basin – both of which are likely to reach tropical storm status in the near-term. A third tropical wave has pushed off the west coast of Africa and there is yet another wave situated over the central part of Africa. The tropical depression over the central Atlantic is of most concern to Florida residents as it is likely to track towards the Straits of Florida over the next few days before potentially spilling out over the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
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The 2020 Atlantic Basin tropical season has gotten off to a very busy start and a parade of systems is going to keep it busy right through the remainder of August. There are now two tropical depressions in the Atlantic Basin which are likely to reach tropical storm status in coming days with the Gulf of Mexico the likely high impact zone by the early or middle of next week. A third tropical wave has reached the west coast of Africa and there is yet another wave situated over the central part of Africa. A “teleconnection” index known as the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) which tracks an eastward-moving tropical disturbance supports the idea for increased tropical activity over the next couple of week. In addition, the latter part of August is a time of year when tropical activity tends to ramp up as sea surface temperatures climb towards their peak supporting the formation and intensification of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Basin.
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The 2020 Atlantic Basin tropical season has gotten off to a very busy start and a parade of systems is going to keep it busy right through the remainder of the month. There are currently two tropical systems in the Atlantic Basin which are being closely monitored and both are likely to reach tropical storm status in coming days. A third tropical wave has reached the west coast of Africa and it looks quite impressive on satellite imagery and there is yet another wave situated over the central part of Africa. A teleconnection index known as the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) that tracks an eastward-moving tropical disturbance supports the idea of increased tropical activity as we progress through the rest of August. In addition, the latter part of August is from a “climatological” point-of-view, a time of year when tropical activity tends to ramp up as sea surface temperatures climb towards their peak supporting the formation and intensification of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Basin.
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The 2020 Atlantic Basin tropical season has gotten off to a very busy start and a parade of systems is going to keep it busy right through the remainder of the month of August. There are currently two tropical systems in the Atlantic Basin which are being closely monitored and both are likely to reach tropical storm status in coming days. A third tropical wave has reached the west coast of Africa and it looks quite impressive on satellite imagery and there is yet another wave situated over the central part of Africa. A “teleconnection” index known as the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) which tracks an eastward-moving tropical disturbance supports the idea for increased tropical activity as we progress through the rest of August. In addition, the latter part of August is from a “climatological” point-of-view, a time of year when tropical activity tends to ramp up as sea surface temperatures climb towards their peak supporting the formation and intensification of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Basin.
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An upper-level trough of low pressure will intensify over the south-central US over the next few days and this will result in a continuation of unsettled weather conditions across the Florida Peninsula for the remainder of the week. As a result, there will be an influx of abundant moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and a daily shot of scattered showers and thunderstorms with the best chance in the afternoon and evening hours. Elsewhere, the Atlantic tropical scene is quite active as we progress well into the second half of the month with a couple different systems to closely monitor in coming days.
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The next couple of days look quite unsettled across central Florida with a relatively high chance of rain in the area as moist, southwesterly flow of air continues. In addition to the moisture, an upper-level trough of low pressure will settle over the Gulf of Mexico and add to the instability across the Florida Peninsula. Any shower or thunderstorm that forms today, tonight and on Wednesday can feature some heavy rainfall and gusty winds. A similar weather pattern is coming for the second half of the week which will result in a daily shot of afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms.
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The overall weather pattern is shaping up to feature cooler weather in the eastern US where temperatures will be well below-normal at times in coming days and very hot weather in the western US where numerous record highs will be challenged. A large upper-level trough of low pressure will extend from eastern Canada to the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week at the same time high pressure ridging will intensify over the Southwest US. The transition to the cooler weather in the eastern US has come about with plenty of rainfall and the buildup of heat in the western US has come with an increase in wildfire activity that often ramps up during this time of year.
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An upper-level trough of low pressure will intensify over the south-central states over the next couple of days and low pressure will form over the Mid-Atlantic region. Both of these systems will help to contribute to humid air remaining in place across Florida and this will result in more scattered showers and thunderstorms as we head through the weekend. Elsewhere, a new tropical storm has formed in the Atlantic (“Josephine”) and it will have to be monitored in coming days as it will head in a general WNW direction and towards the SE US. However, there continues to be signs that this new tropical storm will encounter increasing wind shear before it ever has a chance to make it all the way to the US east coast.
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A similar weather pattern today across Florida with a moist air mass in place, chance of PM showers and thunderstorms, and a high temperature near the 90 degree mark. Any thunderstorm that forms over the next couple of days can feature some heavy rainfall given the high available moisture content in the atmosphere. Elsewhere, a new tropical storm has formed in the Atlantic and it will have to be monitored in coming days as it will head in a general WNW direction and towards the SE US. However, there are signs that this new tropical system will encounter increasing wind shear before it ever has a chance to make it all the way to the US east coast – stay tuned.
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A similar weather pattern for today as recent days with a moist air mass in place, chance of PM showers and thunderstorms, and a high temperature near the 90 degree mark. Any thunderstorm that forms over the next couple of days can feature some heavy rainfall given the high available moisture content in the atmosphere. The next few days will feature high pressure over the north Atlantic which will stretch southwest to the Florida Peninsula and it’ll keep our general wind flow from the south. As a result, the very warm and humid conditions will continue right into the weekend.
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