An upper-level trough dragged a cold front through the Deep South yesterday and it’ll result in slightly cooler conditions for the mid-week across central Florida. Temperatures will generally reach a peak in the low-to-mid 80’s during the next several days and there will continue to be a daily threat of showers and thunderstorms. On the tropical scene, all remains quiet in the Atlantic Basin as the month of September comes to an end.
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An upper-level trough will drag a cold front through the Deep South today and it’ll reach the east-central part of Florida later in the afternoon. This frontal system will enhance chances of showers and thunderstorms around here this afternoon and evening and its passage will usher in a bit cooler air for the mid-week. On the tropical scene, all remains quiet in the Atlantic Basin as the month of September comes to an end.
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The Atlantic Basin has entered a relatively quiet period with respect to tropical activity and it may last for several days. However, there is little doubt that this is just temporary reprieve as sea surface temperatures remain quite warm across the Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico, and the southwestern Atlantic. The upper air pattern across the nation will change next week to one that will feature an intense upper-level trough of low pressure over the central and eastern US and a strong high pressure ridge along the west coast. As a result, colder-than-normal conditions will dominate the central and eastern US by later next week and hot, dry weather is likely in the western states which will increase the chance of wildfires.
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High pressure will remain pretty stationary over the Bahamas during the next couple of days before shifting over Florida late in the weekend. In addition, the remains of Tropical Storm Beta will push up to our northwest and that system combined with the offshore high will bring warm, moist air into our region. As a result, highs will trend well up into the 80’s by the weekend and we’ll have a daily shot at showers and thunderstorms.
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Onshore winds may decrease some today compared to recent days as the pressure gradient relaxes with the retrogression of strong high pressure to our north. Rip currents and boating conditions will remain somewhat hazardous; however, given the persistent high winds of recent days. Onshore flow will tend to become stronger again during the next couple of days as high pressure to our north becomes re-established. Deeper moisture is destined to move into the region this weekend from the Gulf region as south-to-southwest flow develops across central Florida.
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The main story this week continues to be very strong high pressure centered to our northeast along the coastline of the Northeast US/SE Canada. This system will be persistent and provide an onshore flow of air in the area with a chance of showers from time-to-time. The east-to-northeast flow of air will help keep temperatures under control with highs generally in the middle 80’s across central Florida. On the tropical scene, Tropical Storm “Beta” is moving very slowly along the Texas coastline and a wave between Florida’s east coast and the Bahama Islands continues to be monitored.
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The main story this week will be very strong high pressure centered to our north along the coastline of the Northeast US. This system will be persistent and provide an onshore flow in the area with a chance of showers from time-to-time. The east-to-northeast flow of air will help keep temperatures down a bit compared to last week’s heat with highs generally in the low-to-middle 80’s across central Florida. On the tropical scene, Tropical Storm “Beta” is moving very slowly along the Texas coastline and a wave between Florida’s east coast and the Bahamas will have to be monitored in coming days.
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Tropical Storm Wilfred has formed in the eastern Atlantic and that has now exhausted the list of hurricane names for the 2020 Atlantic Basin tropical season. As a result, the Greek alphabet will be used from here on out with the next named system to become “Alpha” and this may be the tropical wave that has been meandering over the western Gulf of Mexico in recent days. The last time the Greek alphabet had to be used for the naming of tropical storms was the very active year of 2005. Meanwhile, Hurricane Teddy has intensified into a category 4 “major” storm over the central Atlantic and it will likely effect Bermuda late in the weekend and then it may have a direct impact on Nova Scotia, Canada as an unfolding blocking pattern in the atmosphere changes its course.
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A trough of low pressure will dip through the eastern US today bringing us a chance for showers and thunderstorms and very warm conditions with highs near 90 degrees. A frontal system will accompany this upper-level trough and begin a cooling trend around here by early next week. In addition to the cool down, the winds will become a big player as pressure gradient tightens between strengthening high pressure over the Northeast US and a tropical system over the Gulf of Mexico and Hurricane Teddy over the Atlantic. In fact, this windy stretch may last several days which will likely result in large, long swells and hazardous boating conditions.
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While the remnants of Hurricane Sally produce heavy rainfall today from the Southeast US to the Mid-Atlantic, attention is shifting to two other tropical systems of concern. One tropical system has been meandering over the warm waters of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico in recent days and it looks like it will continue to do so for the next few days. As a result, it is very likely to soon intensify into named tropical storm status (would be called “Wilfred”) and it could ultimately have an impact pretty much anywhere on the Gulf coast from Texas to Florida. Meanwhile, Teddy has become a major hurricane over the central Atlantic and it is likely headed to near the island of Bermuda over the next few days. After that, the storm track forecast gets more complicated for Hurricane Teddy as it will encounter a blocking pattern in the upper atmosphere with strong high pressure ridging over southeastern Canada and an upper-level trough over the Canadian Maritime Provinces. It is unclear as to whether this interaction will cause a turn to the northwest and perhaps towards northern New England/Southeastern Canada or if Hurricane Teddy will goes harmlessly out into the North Atlantic.
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