“Elsa” is now a tropical storm with maximum sustained winds of 65 mph and will make landfall later this morning on the northern Gulf coast of Florida. It will then cross the northern part of the Sunshine State and reach the Georgia/South Carolina border region by early tomorrow. After that, “Elsa” will turn to the northeast and through the eastern states likely reaching the Delmarva Peninsula region by early Friday enhancing the chance for showers/storms and heavy rainfall in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor. From there, the remains of “Elsa” could move to eastern New England by later Friday and then to near Nova Scotia (Canada) by early Saturday.
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“Elsa” is a strong tropical storm that is on the verge of reaching hurricane status as it pushes slowly northward just off Florida’s southwest coastline. It is having significant impact in the state of Florida and is likely to have an impact later in the week all the way up into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US. In the short-term, a very unstable atmosphere could bring severe thunderstorms to the northern Mid-Atlantic later today and tonight in this hot and humid air mass.
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“Elsa” is a strong tropical storm this morning near the Florida Keys and has slowed down from its rapid movement during the weekend. This system will ride up to the north today just off the west coast of Florida and then cross northern Florida on Wednesday morning after landfall near the Big Bend region. After that, the remains of “Elsa” will likely turn to the northeast and move up along the eastern seaboard – perhaps to a position by later Thursday over the Delmarva Peninsula or southern New Jersey. Impact across east-central Florida from “Elsa” will come in the period from later today into tomorrow morning from strong squalls with outer rain bands containing gusty winds to 50 mph or so and heavy rainfall.
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An upper-level low will drop from the Great Lakes region to a position over the Mid-Atlantic region by the early part of the upcoming weekend, but high pressure off the east coast will remain in control of the weather around here. Elsewhere, “Elsa” has reached hurricane status this morning near the island of Barbados and threatens Hispaniola (especially on the Haiti side), Jamaica and Cuba later this weekend and then the SE US/Gulf of Mexico early next week…stay tuned.
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It’s never easy to break the back of a heat wave in the Mid-Atlantic region and this one will be no different with the formation of strong-to-severe thunderstorms in the transition and there will be torrential rainfall included in the mix. The threat for storms and heavy rainfall will continue into Friday as a slow-moving cold front works its way through the region. It’ll turn noticeably cooler on Friday and Saturday and the weather will stay unsettled as we begin the holiday weekend, but improvement will set in for Sunday and Monday.
Elsewhere, an impressive tropical wave that exited off of the west coast of Africa last week has strengthened into Tropical Storm “Elsa” and it will enter the Caribbean Sea later tomorrow. This system is likely to become an important player for the Caribbean islands of Hispaniola (Haiti/Dominican Republic), Jamaica and Cuba later in the weekend and could threaten southern Florida early next week.
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There was intense heat across the Pacific Northwest earlier in the week and also quite a hot spell in the Mid-Atlantic region with strong upper-level ridging the main culprit in both parts of the nation. The heat in the Mid-Atlantic will transition to much cooler conditions by the time we get to the end of the work week and early part of the holiday weekend. This change will come about with numerous strong-to-severe thunderstorms and torrential rainfall with localized flooding a real threat. The weekend will start off quite a bit cooler-than-normal in the Mid-Atlantic and also very unsettled with deep upper-level low pressure moving directly overhead, but improvement and warming will come later in the weekend.
Elsewhere, an impressive tropical wave exited off of the west coast of Africa last week and it is now churning over the central Atlantic. We certainly could be dealing with a “tropical storm” nearing the Caribbean Sea by the end of the week and this system will have to be closely monitored heading into the first full week of July.
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Surface high pressure over the western Atlantic will continue to pump warm and humid air in to the southeastern states over the next couple of days. At the same time, an upper-level low will drop from the Great Lakes to a position over the Mid-Atlantic region by the early part of the upcoming weekend. As a result, it’ll stay unsettled around here into the weekend with a daily shot at showers and storms. Meanwhile, the tropical Atlantic is quite active with an impressive wave still moving on a WNW track after coming off the west coast of Africa last week. This system may become a player for the Gulf of Mexico/Southeast US later next week.
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High pressure will continue to dominate the scene around here with onshore flow during the next couple of days. As a result, we’ll continue to experience relatively high levels of moisture and a daily shot at showers and thunderstorms. It looks like the unsettled, warm and humid conditions will continue right into the upcoming holiday weekend. Elsewhere, keeping a close eye on the tropical Atlantic with the wave that edged off the west coast of Africa last week...may become an important player by next week.
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High pressure will continue to dominate the scene around here with onshore flow during the next few days. As a result, we’ll continue to experience relatively high levels of moisture and a daily shot at showers and thunderstorms. It looks like the unsettled, warm and humid conditions will continue through into the upcoming holiday weekend.
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High pressure will intensify off the east coast over the next couple of days and this will promote a persistent low-level southeasterly flow of air across Florida. As a result, we’ll continue to experience high levels of humidity and a daily shot at showers and thunderstorms. It looks like the unsettled, warm and humid conditions will continue at least through the first half of next week.
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