While we’ve been enjoying warmer-than-normal weather in the US and Canada in recent weeks, much of Europe and Asia have suffered through sustained bitter cold. In fact, it is likely to get even worse for them later this week as some computer forecast models suggest temperatures could fall an astonishing 50 degrees below normal in Siberia - the coldest air yet this season. In addition to the cold, the month of November began with well above normal snow cover across the Northern Hemisphere with more snow than normal across both sides of the North Pole. All of this cold and snow around the Northern Hemisphere suggests it could indeed turn out to be quite interesting around here in the eastern US between Thanksgiving and Christmas.
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September was well above normal in the Mid-Atlantic region (PHL +4.4°, DC +5.0°, NYC +3.8°), October turned out above-normal as well (PHL +2.9°, DC +3.6°, NYC +1.0°); however, there are signs for a major temperature pattern flip during the middle and latter parts of November that will bring dramatic changes to the DC, Philly and NYC metro regions. In fact, this expected upcoming pattern flip to colder that was discussed in detail in the recently posted Vencore Weather Winter Outlook, may very well stick around for awhile and lead us right into a colder-than-normal winter season in the Mid-Atlantic region. The month of December is likely to be a far cry from the unusually warm weather that we experienced a year ago and the period from Thanksgiving-to-Christmas could be very interesting indeed.
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Philadelphia officially broke a record yesterday as the airport reached 86 degrees which easily bested the old record of 80 degrees set back in 1947. In fact, there has been much record warmth during the past few days in the eastern states, but big changes are coming by the weekend. A strong cold front whips through the region tomorrow night and its passage will usher in a much cooler air mass for the weekend and it’ll generally stay below-normal into the middle part of next week.
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Hurricane Matthew continues churning northwest through the Bahamas and towards the east coast of Florida. It has now been upgraded to a dangerous category 4 classification and should arrive in the vicinity of Cape Canaveral, Florida early Friday morning with an outside chance at reaching category 5 status before its arrival. The eye has become noticeably more visible in recent satellite images indicating strengthening is on-going and as Matthew moves over very warm Gulf stream waters, the central pressure could continue to drop, and it is possible category 5 status may be attained by early tomorrow. If indeed Matthew makes landfall in Florida as a major hurricane, it would end an unprecedented streak in the US without a major hurricane since Wilma came ashore in southwestern Florida during late October of 2005. Since its last encounter with a major hurricane, the population in Florida has grown by the millions and lots of that growth has been near the coast.
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Major Hurricane Matthew continues to be a serious threat for the region from Florida to North Carolina. The storm is currently headed northwest through the Bahama Island chain and towards the east-central coastal region of Florida. It could make landfall there by early Friday and has a shot at ending the on-going streak in the US without a major hurricane (i.e., category 3, 4 or 5). That unprecedented streak (actually 4000 days as of tomorrow) without a major hurricane strike in the US has persevered since October 2005 at which time Wilma came ashore in southwestern Florida. Hurricane Matthew is the 14th Atlantic hurricane since 1950 to be a major hurricane for at least 120 consecutive hours.
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The center of Hurricane Matthew has passed over the western tip of Haiti and is now back out over water on its way towards the eastern tip of Cuba. Its brief encounter with land has obscured the eye from its quite distinct appearance earlier this morning. Some further slight weakening can take place later today and tonight as Matthew briefly encounters the land mass of eastern Cuba, but the overall environment is quite favorable for it to maintain “major” hurricane status during the next couple of days.
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Matthew continues to churn through the central Caribbean as a major hurricane (category 4) with its latest measured max sustained winds at 140 mph and central pressure of 941 millibars (27.29 inches). It is grinding northward at 6 mph, and unfortunately, this slow movement will result in an extended period of high winds and heavy rain for many areas. In fact, there is the threat for as much as 40 inches of rain during the next couple of days in Haiti where this is an especially dangerous situation.
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Matthew has intensified rapidly over the last several hours and is now classified as a major (category 3) hurricane. Matthew becomes the sixth major hurricane in the Caribbean Sea during the month of September since 1990 (Luis, Marilyn 1995, Georges 1998, Ivan 2004, Felix 2007). The latest measured maximum sustained winds of Matthew are 115 mph, central pressure has dropped to 968 millibars, and it is moving WSW at 12 mph. Matthew should continue to move on a general WSW-to-W track during the next 12 hours or so and then make a right turn later in the weekend. By Monday, the island of Jamaica could take a direct hit by Matthew and then the region from central Cuba to Haiti could be directly impacted as Matthew churns slowly to the north.
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The significant rain event that began last night in the Mid-Atlantic region will continue into the weekend and hardest hit areas could end up with several inches. Overnight rain was heaviest in the DC metro region where around two inches fell and flash flooding is a concern there for the next couple of days. In addition, those flash flooding concerns extend from the DC area eastward to the Delmarva Peninsula and New Jersey coastline and northward into southern Pennsylvania. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Matthew continues to churn westward in the Caribbean Sea and it is likely to become classified as a hurricane shortly and perhaps could reach major hurricane status over the weekend. Later this weekend or early next week, Matthew is likely to make a sharp right turn and heads towards Cuba or Hispaniola. After that, there are a wide range of possibilities ranging from a direct hit on the US to an "out-to-sea" solution - all eyes in the eastern US should continue to monitor this intensifying storm.
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“Matthew” has officially been born and has quickly attained tropical storm status as it heads into the Caribbean Sea. This tropical system looks like it’ll be a slow-moving and major impact type of storm for the next week to ten days or so – perhaps even reaching major hurricane status – and the eastern US has to stay on guard. Meanwhile, of more immediate concern, a significant rain event is headed to the Mid-Atlantic region during the next few days and there can be some serious flooding problems and hefty precipitation totals by the time the weekend begins; especially, in the region from southern Virginia to southern Pennsylvania which includes the entire DC and Philly metro regions.
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