At 11am, Irma was moving NNW at 17 mph and classified as a tropical storm with max sustained winds at 65 mph and a central pressure of 975 mb. Irma will move from its current position over north-central Florida into southwestern Georgia and then continue its way on northwest track to western Tennessee. In this location at mid-week, Irma will run into an atmospheric roadblock and tend to stall out and dissipate gradually. While there will not likely be any heavy rain event in the Mid-Atlantic region from the remains of Irma, due to the blocking pattern in the atmosphere, the threat for showers will be rather extended lasting from tomorrow night into the latter part of the week.
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Sat AM update: Irma slammed ashore in northern Cuba last night as a category 5 hurricane – the first such there since 1924. Irma weakened slightly in the overnight hours, but is likely to strengthen again tonight and Sunday before making landfall possibly on the southwest side of Florida after moving over the Lower Keys - perhaps right over Key West. Exact landfall on the Florida peninsula is quite difficult to pinpoint at this time, but there is a chance it ends up somewhere between Naples and Port Charlotte as a category 4 or 5 hurricane. Computer forecast models such as NOAA's GFS have been rather consistently predicting a rapid intensification of Irma in the hours before making landfall.
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Friday PM update: Irma has strengthened slightly in the last few hours with max sustained winds now at 155 mph – just short of category 5 status which begins at 157 mph - and it is moving westerly at 14 mph with a central pressure of 925 millibars (27.32 inches). During the last few hours, Irma has tracked due west and this will likely result in some interaction with the island of Cuba over the next 6-12 hours which would likely generate some weakening due to increased shear. This potential weakening by the interaction with Cuba, however, would be only temporary.
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Irma continues to track west-northwest this morning as a major hurricane - now at category 4 status - and is likely to maintain much of its strength over the next couple of days as it moves over very warm waters. Irma should move to a position quite close to the southern coast of Florida by early Sunday and then it is likely to turn north-to-northwest as deep upper-level troughing digs in over the Northeast US. This likely path will result in virtually the entire state of Florida experiencing hurricane conditions later this weekend and into early Monday as the hurricane crosses from south-to-north roughly over the center of Florida.
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Irma remains a category 5 “major” hurricane with max sustained winds at around 180 mph. It continues to move on a general WNW track and will likely reach the Florida Straits by the early part of the weekend. Strong high pressure ridging over the central Atlantic continues to steer Irma to the WNW, but an upper-level trough digging into the Northeast US this weekend will allow Irma to turn northward and ride up through the state of Florida.
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Hurricane Irma has intensified into category 5 status with max sustained winds at around 175 mph. It continues to move on a general westward track and it is looking increasingly likely that it will approach the Florida Straits by the weekend. Strong high pressure ridging over the central Atlantic continues to steer Irma to the west and it looks like this trend will continue for the next couple of days. While Irma can fluctuate between a category 4 and 5 hurricane over the next few days, unfortunately, there is no reason to believe it can weaken significantly in the near term.
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The climatological peak of the Atlantic Basin tropical season is right around September 10th and that is right around the time the US east coast may be dealing with a big problem named Irma. Irma has strengthened rapidly in the eastern Atlantic to category 2 hurricane status and is likely to reach major hurricane status (i.e., category 3) by tonight or Friday. In fact, there are reasons to believe significant further strengthening will take place over the next several days and Irma could very well reach the highest category 5 status at some point in its lifetime. It is too early to tell if Irma will take a “southern” track towards the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico or more of a “northern” track towards the Bahamas and Southeast US, but in either case, it looks like it’ll become a powerful storm and a major problem.
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Tropical Storm Harvey has made a second landfall in southwestern Louisiana and is now about 30 miles to the north of Lake Charles with sustained winds at 45 mph. Meanwhile, Irma has formed in the eastern Atlantic and it could become a major hurricane in coming days. In fact, in about 10 days or so, Irma could become a big problem to deal with in the region of the Southeast US, Bahamas or northern Caribbean Sea – just too early to say. In about 5 days or so, there are some signs that another tropical system could form in the western Gulf of Mexico – the last thing that is needed in that area. Meanwhile, another very impressive tropical wave lurks right over the breeding grounds region of Africa and it could ultimately become another system to watch as it reaches the Atlantic.
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Harvey is now a strong category 2 hurricane and it is closing in on southeastern Texas near Corpus Christi. Hurricane Harvey will come to a grinding halt over the next couple of days and could very well be “forced” to loop back around over the open warm waters of the western Gulf of Mexico due to a roadblock pattern in the upper atmosphere. As a result, there will be several days of torrential rainfall over southeastern Texas and final amounts are likely to be staggering when all is said and done later next week.
Meanwhile, a second tropical system is getting better organized just to the southwest of Florida. This system could strengthen into Tropical Storm “Irma” over the next few days as it churns northeastward along the Southeast US coastline. In fact, “soon-to-be” Irma could reach hurricane status by the time it reaches the region near the Outer Banks of North Carolina and it could end up throwing some rain and wind back into the I-95 corridor during the early part of next week.
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Two hurricane streaks could come to an end over the next couple of days. First, Texas has not been hit directly by a hurricane since Hurricane “Ike” struck the state in September 2008 as a category 2 storm. This streak appears quite likely to be coming to an end as Harvey appears to be headed towards hurricane status as it closes in on the southeast Texas coastline. Second, there has not been a major (i.e., category 3 or higher) hurricane strike on the US mainland since 2005 – the longest “drought” of major hurricanes in recorded history since the middle 1800’s. The last major hurricane to hit the US was Wilma in October 2005 (southwestern Florida) - 4322 days ago (info courtesy Philip Klotzbach of Colorado State University). This streak has a chance to come to an end since it is not out of the realm of possibility that Harvey strengthens all the way to category 3 status before making landfall in southeast Texas – perhaps somewhere near Corpus Christi.
Elsewhere, a second tropical system is likely to gain strength over the next few days just off the Florida coastline. If this system indeed reaches tropical storm status – quite a realistic scenario – it would become officially named “Irma”. This tropical system is likely to move slowly northeastward in coming days just off the Southeast US coastline producing heavy rainfall from Florida to North Carolina.
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