The tropics remain very active in the Atlantic Basin with Hurricanes Jose and Maria and Tropical Depression Lee. Hurricane Jose is now losing its tropical characteristics, but will still have an impact later tomorrow and tomorrow night on southern New England and eastern Long Island and perhaps as far to the southwest as western Long Island, New York City, and coastal New Jersey. Hurricane Maria is the biggest concern and has just reached “major” hurricane status. Maria is likely to strike Puerto Rico and the US Virgins Islands at mid-week as a "major" hurricane. Tropical Depression Lee is liable to fall apart in the next few days as it faces unfavorable environmental conditions in the far eastern Atlantic.
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Jose is currently classified as a tropical storm with max sustained winds at 70 mph and a central pressure of 989 millibars. Jose is currently moving to the northwest at 9 mph and is likely to continue in this direction over the next couple of days. The latest satellite image of Jose is rather impressive with a “healthy-looking” symmetry to the storm and the possible beginnings of an eye formation. Hurricane status is likely to be regained shortly based on the latest observations and by the middle of next week, Jose could be a real concern for the northeast US; especially, across southern New England.
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Hurricane Jose has weakened to a category 1 storm with max sustained winds at 75 mph and a central pressure of 985 mb. It is currently just crawling along at 7 mph towards the southeast and may actually do a loop over the next several days in the central Atlantic. Beyond that, strong high pressure ridging is likely to form over the north Atlantic and this could halt the advance of Jose and it is not out of the question that Jose then starts creeping back towards the US east coast.
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At 11am, Irma was moving NNW at 17 mph and classified as a tropical storm with max sustained winds at 65 mph and a central pressure of 975 mb. Irma will move from its current position over north-central Florida into southwestern Georgia and then continue its way on northwest track to western Tennessee. In this location at mid-week, Irma will run into an atmospheric roadblock and tend to stall out and dissipate gradually. While there will not likely be any heavy rain event in the Mid-Atlantic region from the remains of Irma, due to the blocking pattern in the atmosphere, the threat for showers will be rather extended lasting from tomorrow night into the latter part of the week.
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Sat AM update: Irma slammed ashore in northern Cuba last night as a category 5 hurricane – the first such there since 1924. Irma weakened slightly in the overnight hours, but is likely to strengthen again tonight and Sunday before making landfall possibly on the southwest side of Florida after moving over the Lower Keys - perhaps right over Key West. Exact landfall on the Florida peninsula is quite difficult to pinpoint at this time, but there is a chance it ends up somewhere between Naples and Port Charlotte as a category 4 or 5 hurricane. Computer forecast models such as NOAA's GFS have been rather consistently predicting a rapid intensification of Irma in the hours before making landfall.
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Friday PM update: Irma has strengthened slightly in the last few hours with max sustained winds now at 155 mph – just short of category 5 status which begins at 157 mph - and it is moving westerly at 14 mph with a central pressure of 925 millibars (27.32 inches). During the last few hours, Irma has tracked due west and this will likely result in some interaction with the island of Cuba over the next 6-12 hours which would likely generate some weakening due to increased shear. This potential weakening by the interaction with Cuba, however, would be only temporary.
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Irma continues to track west-northwest this morning as a major hurricane - now at category 4 status - and is likely to maintain much of its strength over the next couple of days as it moves over very warm waters. Irma should move to a position quite close to the southern coast of Florida by early Sunday and then it is likely to turn north-to-northwest as deep upper-level troughing digs in over the Northeast US. This likely path will result in virtually the entire state of Florida experiencing hurricane conditions later this weekend and into early Monday as the hurricane crosses from south-to-north roughly over the center of Florida.
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Irma remains a category 5 “major” hurricane with max sustained winds at around 180 mph. It continues to move on a general WNW track and will likely reach the Florida Straits by the early part of the weekend. Strong high pressure ridging over the central Atlantic continues to steer Irma to the WNW, but an upper-level trough digging into the Northeast US this weekend will allow Irma to turn northward and ride up through the state of Florida.
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Hurricane Irma has intensified into category 5 status with max sustained winds at around 175 mph. It continues to move on a general westward track and it is looking increasingly likely that it will approach the Florida Straits by the weekend. Strong high pressure ridging over the central Atlantic continues to steer Irma to the west and it looks like this trend will continue for the next couple of days. While Irma can fluctuate between a category 4 and 5 hurricane over the next few days, unfortunately, there is no reason to believe it can weaken significantly in the near term.
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The climatological peak of the Atlantic Basin tropical season is right around September 10th and that is right around the time the US east coast may be dealing with a big problem named Irma. Irma has strengthened rapidly in the eastern Atlantic to category 2 hurricane status and is likely to reach major hurricane status (i.e., category 3) by tonight or Friday. In fact, there are reasons to believe significant further strengthening will take place over the next several days and Irma could very well reach the highest category 5 status at some point in its lifetime. It is too early to tell if Irma will take a “southern” track towards the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico or more of a “northern” track towards the Bahamas and Southeast US, but in either case, it looks like it’ll become a powerful storm and a major problem.
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