The Atlantic Basin tropical season has undergone a relatively quiet spell in recent days, but there are signs that this break will end shortly. An area of showers and thunderstorms has now formed over the southwestern Caribbean Sea and environmental conditions are likely to become quite favorable over the next few days for this to become a tropical depression. In fact, by later in the weekend, we could be dealing with a tropical storm or hurricane somewhere over the central Gulf of Mexico. In addition, there are signs that point to tropical moisture from this system to ride up northeastward through the eastern states on an inland track which would actually be welcome news in the Mid-Atlantic region which has been very dry in recent weeks.
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Typically, “African-wave” tropical systems wane during the latter stages of the Atlantic Basin tropical season and there are often more in the way of “home-grown” systems that form in more nearby locations to the US such as the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea or western Atlantic region near the Southeast US coastline. In fact, there are strong signs that one tropical system may form near the eastern side of Florida over the next few days and then the medium-term (7-14 days out) is likely to feature a tropical system over the western Caribbean Sea/southern Gulf of Mexico which could eventually also have an impact on parts of the Southeast US.
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Hurricane Maria is now just to the east of the southeastern Bahamas and remains a “major” category 3 hurricane at 11 am with max sustained winds at 125 mph. Maria continues to move on a slow northwest track (8 mph) and will begin on a more northerly track this weekend. By the middle of next week, Maria will likely be situated to the east of the Carolinas; however, with very strong high pressure ridging firmly in place across southeastern Canada and the Northeast US, its movement beyond that point is still of concern for the east coast. A shift to the west in Maria's track is not out of the realm of possibility and that could present some problems to the US east coast from the Outer Banks to New Jersey.
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Hurricane Maria made landfall earlier today near Yabucoa Harbor in Puerto Rico as a category 4 storm and the eye has become filled in recent hours as it passed over the mountainous terrain on the island. Maria’s center will move off the northern coast of Puerto Rico this afternoon in a somewhat weakened state and soon its current northwestward direction should become more northerly. Ultimately, Maria is likely to interact with the remains of Jose and it is still unclear as to how this will play out in terms of its chances of ever reaching the US east coast.
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The tropics remain very active in the Atlantic Basin with Hurricanes Jose and Maria and Tropical Depression Lee. Hurricane Jose is now losing its tropical characteristics, but will still have an impact later tomorrow and tomorrow night on southern New England and eastern Long Island and perhaps as far to the southwest as western Long Island, New York City, and coastal New Jersey. Hurricane Maria is the biggest concern and has just reached “major” hurricane status. Maria is likely to strike Puerto Rico and the US Virgins Islands at mid-week as a "major" hurricane. Tropical Depression Lee is liable to fall apart in the next few days as it faces unfavorable environmental conditions in the far eastern Atlantic.
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Jose is currently classified as a tropical storm with max sustained winds at 70 mph and a central pressure of 989 millibars. Jose is currently moving to the northwest at 9 mph and is likely to continue in this direction over the next couple of days. The latest satellite image of Jose is rather impressive with a “healthy-looking” symmetry to the storm and the possible beginnings of an eye formation. Hurricane status is likely to be regained shortly based on the latest observations and by the middle of next week, Jose could be a real concern for the northeast US; especially, across southern New England.
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Hurricane Jose has weakened to a category 1 storm with max sustained winds at 75 mph and a central pressure of 985 mb. It is currently just crawling along at 7 mph towards the southeast and may actually do a loop over the next several days in the central Atlantic. Beyond that, strong high pressure ridging is likely to form over the north Atlantic and this could halt the advance of Jose and it is not out of the question that Jose then starts creeping back towards the US east coast.
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At 11am, Irma was moving NNW at 17 mph and classified as a tropical storm with max sustained winds at 65 mph and a central pressure of 975 mb. Irma will move from its current position over north-central Florida into southwestern Georgia and then continue its way on northwest track to western Tennessee. In this location at mid-week, Irma will run into an atmospheric roadblock and tend to stall out and dissipate gradually. While there will not likely be any heavy rain event in the Mid-Atlantic region from the remains of Irma, due to the blocking pattern in the atmosphere, the threat for showers will be rather extended lasting from tomorrow night into the latter part of the week.
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Sat AM update: Irma slammed ashore in northern Cuba last night as a category 5 hurricane – the first such there since 1924. Irma weakened slightly in the overnight hours, but is likely to strengthen again tonight and Sunday before making landfall possibly on the southwest side of Florida after moving over the Lower Keys - perhaps right over Key West. Exact landfall on the Florida peninsula is quite difficult to pinpoint at this time, but there is a chance it ends up somewhere between Naples and Port Charlotte as a category 4 or 5 hurricane. Computer forecast models such as NOAA's GFS have been rather consistently predicting a rapid intensification of Irma in the hours before making landfall.
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Friday PM update: Irma has strengthened slightly in the last few hours with max sustained winds now at 155 mph – just short of category 5 status which begins at 157 mph - and it is moving westerly at 14 mph with a central pressure of 925 millibars (27.32 inches). During the last few hours, Irma has tracked due west and this will likely result in some interaction with the island of Cuba over the next 6-12 hours which would likely generate some weakening due to increased shear. This potential weakening by the interaction with Cuba, however, would be only temporary.
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