The unfolding weather pattern across North America over the next couple of weeks virtually assures a colder-than-normal month of November for the Mid-Atlantic region and a quick start to the winter season. An initial Arctic blast this past weekend resulted in numerous record low temperatures and it is increasingly likely that a second Arctic blast arrives in the Mid-Atlantic region by Sunday of the upcoming weekend. Beyond that, “high-latitude blocking” in the upper part of the atmosphere is likely to help keep much of the chilly air in place around here during much of Thanksgiving week.
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Let the games begin…it is now snowing in State College and Altoona in upstate Pennsylvania and the look to winter is suddenly upon us in the Mid-Atlantic region. Low pressure today will head towards the Mid-Atlantic coastline and a cold rain in the I-95 corridor may actually end as a mix of sleet or snow tonight to the north and west of the big cities. A powerful cold front will arrive with gusty winds on Thursday night and usher in an Arctic blast for Friday and Saturday with the lowest temperatures of the season so far and possible record-breaking low temperatures in many spots An overall upper-atmosphere pattern with “high-latitude blocking” is looking increasingly likely for later this month and that could result in more cold air outbreaks for the Mid-Atlantic region by the time Thanksgiving week rolls around.
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The week started off on a warm note here in the Mid-Atlantic region, but it’ll turn noticeably colder tomorrow following the passage of a cold frontal system which will stall out over the southern Mid-Atlantic. In fact, low pressure will form along the frontal boundary zone on Tuesday and it’ll spread a chilly rain to many areas and there can even be some snowflakes mixed in tomorrow night in the higher elevations of northwest NJ and northeast/east-central PA. An even stronger (Arctic) cold front will arrive on Thursday night and this will be followed by an intense blast of cold air for Friday and Saturday which should result in the 20’s by early Saturday morning.
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Three important cold air sources for the central and eastern US in the winter season include Canada, Greenland and Siberia and two of these areas have had quite an impressive increase in snowpack in recent weeks and the third is about to receive widespread accumulations. As the snowpack builds up in these particular areas this time of year, cold air masses are very likely to follow as the nights grow longer going into winter season.
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A major coastal storm is still in the works for later Sunday/Sunday night in the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US and it will contain some tropical moisture from “Invest 93L” and cold air will be pouring in on its western flank into the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys. This storm should bring significant rainfall to the DC-Philly-NYC corridor with the highest amounts on the northeast end and the lowest amounts to the southwest. There will likely be two separate periods of strong winds in the Mid-Atlantic from this storm – one in the warm sector and the second following the passage of the strong cold front.
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A major coastal storm is in the works for the Sunday/Monday time frame in the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US and it will likely feature the entrainment of tropical moisture to its south and east and the intrusion of cold, polar air to its west and north. This potential storm could bring several inches of rain to portions of the Northeast US, significant rainfall to the DC-Philly-NYC corridor, and even some accumulating snow to the higher elevations of the Appalachians.
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The wild weather pattern we talked about last week has begun to unfold and the eastern US will have some very interesting weather later this weekend and early next week. A significant rain event is increasingly likely for the Mid-Atlantic region late in the weekend as deep upper-level low pressure forms in the eastern US and strong surface low pressure develops near the coastline. This potential major coastal storm may very well be juiced up by tropical moisture as the western Caribbean Sea is currently showing some life and this particular tropical system may just ride up along the east coast and get entrained into the coastal storm.
In the meantime, cold air will be charging to the southeast by the latter part of the weekend across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. This incoming cold air mass will also get involved in the overall pattern and the result could be some snow accumulation in the higher elevations of West Virginia and southwestern Pennsylvania. The colder-than-normal air that arrives on Monday in the I-95 corridor behind the passage of a strong cold front looks like it’ll stick around for awhile including for Halloween day (Tuesday). In fact, the first half of November is likely to feature multiple cold air outbreaks for the central and eastern US.
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The quiet, dry and warm weather pattern of recent weeks in the Mid-Atlantic region is coming to an end and a soaking rain event is on the way with the possibility for some strong-to-severe thunderstorms as well. The biggest threat from the potential thunderstorms in the I-95 corridor appears to be damaging wind gusts as there will be a rapidly strengthening jet streak at lower levels of the atmosphere tonight and Tuesday and this could translate down to the surface. Following the rain event, cooler air will slide into the Mid-Atlantic region for a few days, but the core of this chilly air mass is headed towards the Southeast US where the difference from normal will be much more noticeable. Looking ahead, another strong cold front will approach the region from our northwest later this weekend and this could lead to another significant rain event on Sunday and which may then be followed by another chilly shot of air early next week.
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This week has been about as quiet as it gets this time of year in the eastern part of the nation with very strong and relatively stationary high pressure dominating the scene for several days. In fact, that same high pressure system will continue to control the weather for the Northeast US/Mid-Atlantic region right through the upcoming weekend. Beyond that, however, a rapidly changing weather pattern will likely result in some wild weather for the eastern states over the next couple of weeks that could include soaking rain, possible severe thunderstorm activity, and occasional impressive cold air outbreaks.
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The coldest air so far this season pushed into the Mid-Atlantic region on Monday and this morning brought many areas their first frost of the season. After another chilly night with frost possible in many areas, temperatures will modify as we progress through the week and into the weekend. There are, however, signs for another cold shot in the East and Midwest by the middle of next week and this next one could be even colder than the current outbreak. In addition to the upcoming chill, there are signs that the mid-week cold shot could be preceded by a significant rain event in the eastern US.
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