The winter has gotten off to a fast start across much of the nation and it looks like the overall cold and stormy weather pattern will continue as we head through the first half of December. Colder-than-normal conditions have been widespread through the month of November so far and snowfall has been unusually early and unusually high in many places. Signs point to more widespread cold across the US during the first couple weeks of December and the next ten days may feature copious amounts of snow in many of the same areas that received snow earlier this month.
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The month of November has been well below-normal in terms of temperatures across a very large portion of the US and Canada and one the weather highlights of this cold month may very well turn out to the coldest Thanksgiving Day ever in the Northeast US and Mid-Atlantic region. A bitter cold Arctic air mass will flood the northeastern quadrant of the nation on Wednesday night and temperatures on Turkey Day (Thursday) may struggle to escape the 20’s in Philly and New York City and to reach the freezing mark in Washington, D.C.
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The first significant winter weather event of the season is on the way for much of the Mid-Atlantic region and Northeast US. Low pressure will intensify along the Mid-Atlantic coastline on Thursday and impact the region from early tomorrow into early Friday. Accumulations of snow and ice are quite likely from this first of the season winter storm – even in the metro regions of DC, Philly and NYC. Be prepared for slippery road conditions both tomorrow and tomorrow night as surface temperatures will not get too far above freezing during much of this upcoming event.
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In what promises to be a cold and snowy winter with a quick start (“2018-2019 Winter Outlook”), the first winter storm of the season for the Mid-Atlantic region and Northeast US is looking increasingly likely for Thursday/Thursday night as low pressure intensifies along the east coast. This coastal storm may end up impacting the region for an extended period of time from early Thursday into Friday as it takes on a “double-barrel” type of structure near the Mid-Atlantic coastline. Accumulations of snow and ice are quite possible from this early season winter storm – even into the metro regions of DC, Philly and NYC - and significant amounts are likely across interior higher elevation locations of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US.
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Our active and cold weather pattern of recent days will continue through this week and there is the real possibility of some wintry precipitation for the first time this season in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor. Moisture associated with a strong coastal storm will arrive in this area on Thursday and cold air will be locked in place and anchored by sprawling high pressure over the Northeast US. As a result, the threat exists in the metro regions of DC, Philly and NYC of sleet, freezing rain and/or snow at the onset of this upcoming late week event with the highest probabilities of something frozen in the northern and western suburbs. Following the passage of the late week storm, yet another cold air mass will drop southeastward from central Canada and into the Mid-Atlantic region during the upcoming weekend.
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Much colder-than-normal air has already infiltrated much of the northern US and soon it will extend to the east coast. This change to colder-than-normal conditions will stick around for awhile as a reinforcing shot of Arctic air will plunge southward into the Northern Plains by early next week and then spread eastward to the east seaboard on Tuesday night and Wednesday. In terms of precipitation, another soaking rain event is coming to the Mid-Atlantic region on Friday with the heaviest and steadiest rain likely to fall during the PM hours. Once this system passes by to the northeast of here late tomorrow night, winds will intensify and cold air will pour in from the northwest just in time for the weekend. A second storm is likely to pull out of the Gulf states early next week and produce more soaking rain here in the I-95 corridor on Monday night and Tuesday as it intensifies into a powerful system. This system will be followed by very strong - and potentially damaging - NW winds on Tuesday night and Wednesday and the influx of another very cold air mass for this time of year.
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The active weather pattern that we have been experiencing during the past several weeks in the Mid-Atlantic region is showing no signs of letting up and will take on a winter-like look in coming days with two cold shots and two storms. The first storm will arrive on Friday with more soaking rain for the already waterlogged DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor and this system will be followed by a cold shot for the weekend with temperatures way below-normal for this time of year. Another storm is likely to pull out of the Gulf of Mexico region early next week and head right towards the Mid-Atlantic coastline and this system will have some cold air in place before its arrival. As a result, while more soaking rain is likely in the immediate I-95 corridor on this storm’s front end in the Monday night/Tuesday time frame, there may be enough entrenched cold air for snow across interior higher elevation locations of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US. This second storm system will then usher in a second cold air mass by the middle of next week and as the cold air pours in, there is the chance for a rain-changing-to-snow scenario in some areas.
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The active weather pattern that we have been experiencing in the eastern US during the past several weeks will continue through this week with a strong cold frontal passage later today and then another low pressure system to deal with on Friday. That late week low pressure system will usher in a much colder-than-normal air mass for the weekend, but that “initial” cold shot looks pale in comparison to what might arrive in the eastern US by the middle of next week. An Arctic air mass that originates in Siberia looks like it will push across the North Pole this weekend and then drop southward through Canada early next week. At the same time, low pressure is likely to push out of the Gulf of Mexico and towards the Mid-Atlantic coastline and potentially generate yet another soaking rain event in the Monday night/Tuesday time frame. The passage of this storm system will become the mechanism to allow the Arctic air mass to spread to the east coast in the Tuesday night/Wednesday time frame.
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The active weather pattern that we have been experiencing in the eastern US during the past several weeks will continue through this week with a coastal low pressure system to deal with today, a strong cold front on Tuesday, and then another low pressure system to end the work week on Friday. That late week low pressure system will usher in a colder-than-normal air mass for much of the eastern half of the nation for the upcoming weekend and it looks like there will be reinforcing winter-like air mass early next week - likely the coldest air mass so far this season. There is an outside chance that a storm forms near the Mid-Atlantic coastline early next week with the initial cold air mass already in place and a second blast of cold air on the way. This scenario could even lead to some snow in interior sections of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US during the first half of next week.
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A strong cold front will slowly push across the nation over the next few days and it’ll have an important impact on a wide area from the Rockies to the eastern seaboard. A powerful digging jet stream in the upper atmosphere will help to carve out a deep upper-level trough by late in the week and the result of this overall unfolding weather pattern will be heavy snow across the Rockies, heavy rain in the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, and a severe weather threat across much of the southern US. Rain will spread into the eastern US by Thursday night as the front continues to slide slowly to the east. The rain will likely continue into Friday night in the eastern US - possibly heavy at times - as low pressure forms along the frontal boundary zone.
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