A major ice storm will unfold over the next few days for much of the country from northern Texas to Ohio and by Saturday, some icing can take place right here in the Mid-Atlantic region though not nearly on the same scale as to our west. The main culprit will be building Arctic high pressure to our north and this will produce shallow, but very cold, low-level air in the DC, Philly and NYC metro regions following on the heels of a cold frontal passage early tomorrow. This frontal system will stall out in the southern Mid-Atlantic region by the weekend and multiple disturbances will ride along its boundary zone bringing us the potential for some snow and ice. The greatest potential for problems this weekend in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor could very well turn out to be across the DC metro region as higher precipitation amounts are likely down there as compared with places farther to the northeast.
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Today will be the warmest day of the week with afternoon highs climbing into the 60's and perhaps even record-breaking. A strong cold front, however, will cross the region early tomorrow and much colder conditions will return for the weekend as strong Arctic high pressure builds to our north. A frontal system will stall out to our south this weekend and a disturbance will ride along its frontal boundary zone and the result could be some light snow here late in the day. At this time, the expected precipitation amounts for this weekend’s event appear to be on the light side aound here with higher amounts to the south. Looking ahead, the much coveted “January thaw” looks like it may head our way next week and last for several days, but a cold pattern is likely to return later this month.
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Our topsy-turvy temperature pattern will continue over the next several days here in the Mid-Atlantic region. Temperatures on Thursday will climb to the highest levels of the week with 60+ degrees likely for highs in the I-95 corridor from DC-to-Philly-to-NYC, but then a cold front slides through on Friday, Arctic high pressure builds to our north, and the weekend will turn out much colder. This same front will stall out nearby this weekend allowing for a couple of disturbances to ride along its boundary zone bringing us the chance for some snow and/or ice – depending on location. At this time, this early weekend event appears to be on the light-to-moderate side in terms of total precipitation amounts. Once the Arctic high pressure system pushes to the east early next week, much warmer weather will return to the Mid-Atlantic region and it could turn out to be the much coveted “January thaw” that we hope for every winter lasting several days. A colder pattern is likely to return later this month.
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Much milder weather is in store for the region during the next couple of days, but strong Arctic high pressure will build to our north this weekend and bring us a return to much colder weather conditions and there could be a period of snow late Saturday/Saturday night. Temperatures today should climb to near the 50 degree mark for highs and then a warm front will arrive by early tonight bringing us more rain. Behind the warm front, temperatures on Thursday will soar to near 60 degrees, but then a cold front slides through early Friday as Arctic high pressure begins to expand eastward to our north from the Great Lakes region. As a result, the weekend will turn out much colder and there can be a period of snow later Saturday into Saturday night. Looking ahead, it looks like it'll turn much warmer again here next week, but that will be a temporary "January thaw". Elsewhere, much of Europe has already experienced severe cold this winter and the next few weeks are likely to feature newsmaking cold and snow.
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While we’ll get noticeably milder on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday in the Mid-Atlantic region, building Arctic high pressure to our north at the end of the week will result in much colder conditions for the weekend. A frontal system will pass through the region on Friday and this will set off some drastic changes around here as we head into the weekend. To make matters worse, moisture will head our way from the south-central US and the combination of this moisture with strong surface Arctic high pressure to our north may result in a prolonged period of ice and/or snow.
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Much milder weather is in store for the region during the second half of the week, but the transition from the current cold conditions may be accompanied by some frozen precipitation later today; especially, in the northern and western suburbs of the NYC metro region before an eventual changeover tonight to plain rain. Snow or sleet could arrive this afternoon and then any wintry mix should change to plain rain in the overnight hours. There can be a small accumulation of snow and/or ice before the changeover. The milder air will finally win out on Wednesday and temperatures could reach the 50 degree mark for highs. By Thursday, temperatures are likely jump well up into the 50’s as a strong southwest wind develops and the mild weather should last right into Friday. After that; however, strong Arctic high pressure will build to our north this weekend and this will lead to much colder conditions again and perhaps even a period of ice or snow as moisture heads our way from the Midwest.
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Brutal cold greets the new work week this morning and the good news is that it will retreat over the next couple of days, but the bad news is there may be some frozen precipitation in that transition to milder conditions. Arctic high pressure will push of the coast over the next day and a series low pressure systems will track across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. Precipitation could arrive here from one such system later tomorrow and it could still be cold enough for snow with small accumulations possible before an eventual transition to plain rain. Looking back at the Saturday snowfall, Central Park officially came in with 5.1 inches and there was more than 8 inches measured at JFK Airport. Looking ahead to the upcoming weekend, building Arctic high to our north could present problems for us in terms of increasing the potential for some ice or snow.
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A healthy environment is allowing for quick intensification of a coastal storm today and heavy small-scale (a.k.a., mesoscale) snowbands are forming on the storm’s northwestern flank. One such heavy snow band is moving into the DC metro region (arrows) right around the noon hour and this same type of banding should reach SE PA early this afternoon and then NYC by mid-to-late afternoon. Certainly, it is best to avoid driving during snowfall associated with these bands as visibility will drop quickly and accumulations on the roadways will be rapid. This banding will mean snowfall rates will be quite variable from one place to another and from one time to another. Another area of interest on radar is across southwestern Virginia (circled area). It is this area that holds some potential for additional bands of snow to reach DC, Philly and NYC later in the day and it will be monitored for its radar echo movement and (potential) expansion.
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Latest satellite and radar images confirm the precipitation field of the developing coastal storm is rapidly expanding. In addition, a look at lightning strikes over the Gulf of Mexico shows a very dynamic atmosphere with copious amounts of thunderstorm activity and this will aid in the rapid intensification of this storm system. All of this leads me to believe there will be a greater push to the northwest on Saturday of the accumulating snow field associated with the developing coastal storm and accumulations in the big city metro regions of DC, Philly and NYC could reach 1-3 inches. Just to the south and east of the big cities the snowfall could reach the 3-6 inch range (e.g., interior southern New Jersey, southern Maryland), and near the coastline a foot of snow is possible (e.g., Cape May, NJ, Atlantic City, NJ, Ocean City, MD, eastern Long Island).
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A wall of cold has swept over the nation and, earlier in the day, every state in the union except for Florida had temperatures below the freezing mark somewhere within its borders. In addition, 25 states had temperatures below zero and 6 states actually had locations with temperatures below -20°F. The cold is not the only weather problem for the nation – soon there will widespread regions experiencing significant snow or ice. In fact, there will be frozen precipitation over the next 24 hours extending from Texas to New England and this includes many unusual areas in the Deep South and Southeast US. The DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor will also be under the influence of this developing major storm system and snow will return here by early tomorrow. Following the Saturday storm, brutal cold air will flood into the eastern US from the north and there may be some all-time record lows in portions of the Carolinas helped along by the expected fresh and deep new snowpack.
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