Scattered showers and thunderstorms continued to plague the Mid-Atlantic region on Wednesday, but today will present only a slight chance of rainfall as we have a brief break in the action. Attention now turns to the Outer Banks of North Carolina as low pressure over that region is likely to push to the northeast later today and then move in a more northerly direction reaching the southern part of the Delmarva Peninsula by early tomorrow. With this expected move out over the warm waters of the western Atlantic, there is a chance for intensification and a possible "naming" of the storm by NOAA's National Hurricane Center as it potentially reaches tropical storm status (it would be "Fay"). Whether or not "naming" of the storm takes place, heavy rainfall is on the table for Friday across the Delmarva Peninsula, eastern PA, New Jersey and the New York City metro region and there can be gusty winds as well; especially, along coastal locations. This storm is also likely to generate strong rip currents in the ocean on Friday which could stick around into the weekend. The departure of this coastal storm on Saturday will not be the end of the wet weather pattern in the eastern US. An impressive upper-level trough should form by later in the weekend likely leading to more rainfall around here during the first half of next week.
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Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to plague the Mid-Atlantic region at mid-day and this threat will continue into tonight. On Thursday, attention will turn to the Outer Banks region of North Carolina as this is where low pressure is likely to be located early in the day. This system is then likely to push to the northeast out over the warm waters of the western Atlantic and then make a move northward reaching a position near the southern part of the Delmarva Peninsula by early Friday. There is a chance when this system moves over the open waters of the western Atlantic, it’ll intensify enough to become a “named” tropical storm by NOAA’s National Hurricane Center. Whether or not it becomes a "named" storm (it would be “Fay”), it has the potential to produce very heavy rainfall on Friday in the eastern part of the Mid-Atlantic region along with gusty winds and strong rip currents in the western Atlantic Ocean. The departure of this coastal storm on Saturday will likely not be the end of the wet weather pattern in the eastern US. An impressive upper-level trough should form by later in the weekend likely leading to more rainfall into the first half of next week.
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The threat for scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue today and tonight in the Mid-Atlantic region and then attention will turn to the Southeast US as low pressure pushes through the Carolinas and heads toward the warm waters of western Atlantic Ocean. This low pressure system is likely to take a turn to the north later in the week and ride up along the Mid-Atlantic coastline or just to its east. There is a chance that if the low pressure system spends considerable time out over the water, it could actually intensify and become a "named" tropical system. Whether or not it becomes a "named" storm, it has the potential to bring some heavy rainfall on Friday to the eastern part of the Mid-Atlantic and rip currents in the western Atlantic Ocean. The departure of this coastal low on Saturday will likely not be the end of the wet weather pattern in the eastern US. An impressive upper-level trough should form by later in the weekend likely leading to more rainfall around here into the first half of next week.
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There was significant rainfall in the Mid-Atlantic region on Monday with as much as 4-8 inches just to the southeast of Washington, D.C. and grounds are very well-saturated in many spots. While there can be some shower and thunderstorm activity later today, it should not be nearly as widespread nor as intense as to what took place late yesterday. The threat for scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue on Wednesday and then attention will turn to the Southeast US as low pressure slowly pushes through the Carolinas and heads toward the western Atlantic Ocean. This tropical/sub-tropical low pressure system is likely to then take a turn to the northeast and ride up over or just to the east of the the Mid-Atlantic coastline. The result could be some heavy rainfall on Friday - likely along and to the east of Route I-95 - and strong rip currents are likely to form in the ocean as well with gusty winds. The departure of this coastal low on Saturday won’t be the end of the wet weather pattern for the eastern states as an impressive upper-level trough is likely to develop by later in the weekend leading to more rainfall into the early part of next week.
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Summer-like weather will continue this week with quite warm and humid conditions and additional chances for showers and thunderstorms. While it may be hard for the atmosphere to rebound from yesterday's "hard work", there is the chance for more showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening and any shower or storm that forms can produce heavy rainfall. It won't be quite as hot today as it was on Monday, but high humidity levels will make it uncomfortable once again. Later this week, a storm will pull out of the Southeast US and ride up along the eastern seaboard. This scenario could bring heavy rainfall to at least portions of the Mid-Atlantic region along and east of I-95 from late Thursday night into early Saturday - something to closely monitor given the already well-saturated grounds in many spots. More showers and storms are possible around here later this weekend and into the early part of next week.
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A summer-like week is in store for the metro region with hot, humid conditions and multiple chances for showers and thunderstorms. In fact, there is a good chance of showers and thunderstorms later this afternoon and evening as a weak front arrives and some of the late day/evening storms can be on the strong-to-severe side with torrential downpours. Temperatures today are likely to climb into the low-to-mid 90's for highs and it'll stay hot and uncomfortable for much of the week. Later this week, a storm will pull out of the Deep South and potentially ride up along the eastern seaboard. If so, this system would enhance chances for heavy rainfall in the Mid-Atlantic region on Thursday night and Friday.
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Low pressure in the upper part of the atmosphere is shifting off the coast of the Northeast US today and this should reduce chances here for afternoon showers and thunderstorms. There will be plenty of sun today and afternoon temperatures should peak near the 90 degree mark. It’ll get hotter on Friday with temperatures likely to climb into the lower 90’s and there is the chance for afternoon/evening shower and thunderstorm activity as a back door cool front approaches the area. The passage of the back door cool front should knock off several degrees for the weekend highs with temperatures likely peaking in the low-to-mid 80's on both days. There should be some sunshine on both weekend days, but an afternoon or evening shower or thunderstorm cannot be ruled out on either Saturday or Sunday.
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An upper-level low continues to meander over the Northeast US and showers and thunderstorms will again “pin wheel” around this system during the afternoon and evening. Some of the thunderstorms will reach strong-to-severe levels with highly unstable conditions given the cool air aloft combined with warm lower levels of the atmosphere. Any thunderstorm that forms today can include heavy downpours and perhaps small hail as the freezing level is rather low in this pattern. The upper-level low will finally slide to the southeast by tomorrow and this will reduce the chances for showers and thunderstorms.
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It stays unsettled in the region today as an upper-level low continues to meander over the Northeast US. This feature will drop southeastward by the end of the week and a weak cold front will arrive in the area on Friday night. High pressure should push in behind the front as we begin the weekend with another cold frontal system pushing towards us by Sunday night.
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An upper-level low is spinning over the Northeast US and showers and thunderstorms are pin wheeling around this system. Some of the thunderstorms will reach strong-to-severe levels over the next few hours with highly unstable conditions given the chilly air aloft combined with the rather warm lower levels of the atmosphere. Any thunderstorm can contain gusty winds, heavy downpours and small hail as the freezing level is rather low in this scenario. The best chance for the shower and thunderstorm activity will be north and east of the PA/MD border to northern New England, but a few storms can make it all the way down into northern Maryland, northern Virginia, and the Washington, D.C. metro region.
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