An unstable atmosphere and an approaching frontal system are raising the chances for strong-to-severe thunderstorm activity late today and tonight in the I-95 corridor region from DC-to-Philly-to-NYC. There is already one line of strong storms pushing eastward into central PA and central NY and other lines are likely to develop during this threat time period which could continue until midnight or so. The storms are moving quickly enough to reduce somewhat the chances of torrential rainfall amounts like we experienced last week; however, damaging wind gusts, hail and even isolated tornadoes are severe weather threats with this particular setup all the way from Washington, D.C. to New York City.
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The week will start off with comfortable temperatures in the NYC metro region, but an approaching cold front will result in scattered showers this morning and mid-day and possible PM thunderstorms...some of the storms can be on the strong side. Another cold front will pass through at mid-week ushering in more comfortable air for the northeastern part of the nation. At the same time the Northeast US/Great Lakes enjoys comfortable weather conditions, much of the western US will experience excessive heat as upper-level high pressure ridging expands and intensifies over that part of the nation. Elsewhere, it looks like the Gulf of Mexico will feature a tropical system by late this week or early this weekend and it may ultimately head towards Louisiana.
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A cold front grudgingly pushed through the region yesterday and its passage has ushered in noticeably cooler air to end the work week. This frontal passage, however, has not ended our rain threat completely as it has stalled-out just to the south and low pressure has formed along its boundary zone generating additional showers for the Mid-Atlantic region. The weekend will start off with pretty decent weather as high pressure returns, but the next cold front should generate some shower and thunderstorm activity for late Sunday and Sunday night. Looking ahead, a rather refreshing and cooler-than-normal air mass will push into the Northeast US by the middle of next week at the same time the Southwest US experiences some extreme heat. This pattern change will be the result of a vigorous upper-level low that will drop southeastward from Canada into the Northeast US at the same time strong high pressure ridging builds into the southwestern states. In addition, there is likely to be the first tropical activity of the young Atlantic Basin season by later next over the Gulf of Mexico.
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A cold front will work its way through the region this morning and then stall out across Virginia by tomorrow. There will enough drying today in the NYC metro region to eliminate the chances for showers and thunderstorms and it is likely to remain rain-free on Friday and turn a bit cooler. The weekend starts off with decent weather and then the next cold front could bring some shower and thunderstorm activity to the area late Sunday/Sunday night.
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The combination of a very moist air mass, a southward-advancing cold front, and an unstable atmosphere is resulting in more shower and thunderstorm activity for the Mid-Atlantic region. Any shower or thunderstorm that hits a given area later today/early tonight can produce flash flooding conditions given the general slow movement and the abundance of available moisture. Late yesterday and early last night, the “bulls eye” of the heaviest rainfall took place in Chester County, PA, but today’s threat will extend southward to southern New Jersey, the Delmarva Peninsula, and the DC metro region.
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It’ll remain very humid today in the NYC metro region and there will again be the chance for PM showers and thunderstorms. Any shower or thunderstorm later today can produce heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding as they will be slow movers and there is a tremendous amount of available low-level moisture. A cold front will cross the region later tonight and usher in slightly cooler and drier air for the late week and at least part of the upcoming weekend is looking rather promising from this mid-week vantage point.
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It’ll remain very humid today in the NYC metro region and there will be the chance for showers and thunderstorms. Any shower or thunderstorm later today can produce some heavy rainfall as they will likely be slow movers and there is an abundance of available low-level moisture. A cold front will cross the region tomorrow night and usher in slightly cooler air for the late week; however, it will stall just to our south. As low pressure systems move across the stalled out frontal boundary zone later in the week, the chance of showers and thunderstorms will continue in the Mid-Atlantic region.
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Our first extended stretch of very warm and humid weather will continue for the next few days with high temperatures generally between 85 and 90 degrees on a daily basis. The main weather maker is a strong high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean which is pumping in the very warm and humid air mass from the southeastern states into the Mid-Atlantic region. The chance of showers and thunderstorms will exist through this very warm period given the high levels of low-level moisture with the highest chance for rain coming during the PM hours. It turns somewhat cooler later in the week following the passage of a cold front.
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An upper-level trough of low pressure remains to our west this morning and it’ll help to keep it unsettled around here today with additional showers and thunderstorms possible. High pressure will build into the eastern states early this weekend and then move to a classic summertime “Bermuda high” location by early next week. As a result, hot, increasingly humid, and downright summer-like weather is likely here from the weekend through the middle of next week with daily highs at or above the 90 degree mark.
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The combination of a moist air mass, surface frontal systems, and a slow-moving upper-level trough is bringing more rainfall to the Mid-Atlantic region and there can be downpours later in the day and again tonight which could result in some localized flash flooding. In addition, there is the potential for strong-to-severe thunderstorm activity ahead of an advancing cold frontal system. The upper-level trough will still be to the west of the I-95 corridor on Friday leading to an unsettled day and the possibility of additional showers and thunderstorms. High pressure builds across the eastern states this weekend and a classic summertime “Bermuda high” setup is likely to result in hot, increasingly humid and summer-like weather for the period from Sunday-to-Wednesday with daily high temperatures at or above the 90 degree mark in the I-95 corridor.
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