Stratospheric temperatures have risen noticeably during the past couple of weeks in parts of the polar region in the Northern Hemisphere and indications are there will be changes of location of the polar vortex 10-15 days out. In addition, stratospheric warming looks like it could become centered right near or over the North Pole by the time we get into the early part of February. A stratospheric warming event such as this being forecasted could very well result in the displacement of cold air masses from the high latitudes into the middle latitudes sometime later in February.
In the short term, two storm systems are on the way for the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US in the early and middle parts of next week. As has been the case in January, sufficient cold air for the generation of accumulating snow in the immediate I-95 corridor will be a struggle with both of these upcoming storms. Having said that, it looks like a close call in terms of at least some snow and/or ice in the I-95 corridor during either of these storms and any small change in the overall pattern can make an important difference. Odds do favor accumulating snow in the interior, higher elevation locations of the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US during each of these storms next week.
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Low pressure will push to our northwest today bringing us periods of rain and it’ll drag a cold front through the region by later tonight. High pressure will return on Friday and take control of the weather through the first half of the weekend. The next low pressure system will then push in this direction from our southwest and it should produce a chilly rain around here from late Sunday into Monday.
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While the western US may experience an extended quieter weather pattern beginning later this week, it’ll remain quite active across the central and eastern US. The break in the action in the western US will be due to the development of an upper-level ridge of high pressure that will ultimately extend from the eastern Pacific Ocean northward into Alaska. In response to this ridge, an upper-level trough of low pressure will form over the central US and Canada by later next week. The combination of the eastern Pacific-to-Alaska ridge and the trough over the central US/Canada will result in upper-level winds that can easily transport cold air masses from northern Canada into the US. In fact, signs point to widespread colder-than-normal conditions across most the nation by late next week. Nationwide colder-than-normal weather in late January is quite impressive considering this is when climatological averages are close to their lowest levels of the year.
Meanwhile, the southwestern Atlantic Ocean will feature a ridge of high pressure in coming days that will intensify at times and the corridor region between the upper-level low (cold) over the central states and the Atlantic Ocean ridge (warm) will become a “battle zone” region with multiple storms riding through it from southwest-to-northeast. Accumulating snow has been virtually non-existent so far this winter season in the immediate DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor, but this active pattern will at least be able to raise hope for snow lovers in that part of the country with a couple of storm systems next week.
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After a milder day with some sunshine, clouds will increase this evening and rain is likely to return late tonight and continue Thursday. Low pressure will push to our northwest tomorrow bringing us a decent rainfall and a front will swing through by later tomorrow night. High pressure will return on Friday and take control of the weather through the first half of the weekend. The next low pressure system could throw some precipitation our way late in the weekend and during the early part of next week.
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Another storm will impact California later Wednesday, but this system looks like it will be the last in a series of storms to roll off the Pacific Ocean and into the Golden State. An upper-level ridge of high pressure will build over the eastern Pacific Ocean in coming days and ultimately expand northward into Alaska. This ridge will act as a “protective barrier” to oceanic storms resulting in welcome relief to the waterlogged state.
While the western US may experience a quieter overall weather pattern beginning later this week, it’ll remain quite active across the central and eastern US. In a reaction to the developing ridge over the eastern Pacific Ocean, an upper-level trough of low pressure will form over the central US and Canada. In addition, a ridge of high pressure will intensify over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean in coming days. The corridor region between the upper-level low over the central states and the ridge over the SW Atlantic will become a “battle zone” region likely with multiple storms riding through it from southwest-to-northeast. Snow has been virtually non-existent so far this season in the immediate I-95 corridor region from DC-to-Philly-to-NYC; however, I do believe that the chances will likely increase markedly next week and beyond given the large-scale pattern change that is expected across North America.
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A weak system will push into the region today with some shower activity, however, it will not be a significant event. After a milder day on Wednesday, a stronger system will produce a more significant rain event in the Mid-Atlantic region from late Wednesday night into Thursday. High pressure will arrive at week’s end and it’ll stick around as we begin the upcoming weekend.
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An active weather pattern continues across the nation on Monday with three different storm systems impacting the country. One storm has developed an “eye-like” feature over the western Atlantic Ocean and it is contributing to snow and ice today across much of eastern New England. A second system now over the middle of the country is generating rain on its warm side and accumulating snow in the cold sector. Meanwhile, California is getting pounded once again by a strong storm system and a weaker one is likely at mid-week. However, welcome relief is likely beyond that time as a large-scale pattern change unfolds across North America.
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The week will start off on the breezy and chilly side in the Mid-Atlantic region and there will be a couple of systems to deal with over the next few days. The first system will be rather weak and it can bring us a bit of rain on Tuesday and then a stronger system is likely to bring us a more significant rainfall on Thursday. Temperatures this afternoon will peak in the mid-to-upper 40’s and should touch 50 degrees on Wednesday ahead of the second and stronger system coming this way for later in the week.
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A cold front crosses the area this morning with additional lingering showers possible and then gusty W-NW winds will develop and usher in colder air through the remainder of the day. The weekend will be quite chilly with a noticeable breeze making it feel even colder than the actual air temperature. Temperatures on Saturday will be confined to the 30’s for afternoon highs, drop well down into the 20’s on Saturday night, and then peak around 40 degrees on Sunday afternoon.
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A strong storm will pull to the northwest of here today pushing a warm front through the region this morning and then dragging a cold front across the area early Friday. Showers will generally be scattered through mid-afternoon, but steadier rain is possible by day’s end and is likely tonight. Some of the rain tonight can come down hard for a brief time and a thunderstorm can mix in as well with gusty winds. It turns colder later tomorrow behind the front and the weekend should turn out to be moderately cold and dry.
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