A potent system will cross the Great Lakes later today at the same time a front to our south begins to advance northward as a warm front. The combination of these systems - along with loads of available low-level moisture - will result in an increasing unstable atmosphere from later tonight into Friday. While there can be an isolated shower or thunderstorm late today or early tonight, the main action time period, I believe, will be from about the wee hours of the morning into mid-day or early afternoon on Friday when showers and thunderstorms are likely to become more numerous. Any late night and early-to-mid Friday storm can be strong and downpours are on the table…watch out for the possibility of flash flooding. High pressure will then begin to build into the region later Friday night and there is reasonable hope that the weekend actually features back-to-back rain-free days in the Mid-Atlantic region along with comfortably warm temperatures.
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The active weather pattern experienced in the Mid-Atlantic region in recent weeks remains fully intact as we head towards the end of this week. Heavy showers and embedded thunderstorms passed through much of the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor in the overnight and early morning hours and additional showers and thunderstorms are possible from later today through the day on Thursday. Any one of these showers or thunderstorms during the next 24 hours can produce heavy rainfall in what is an already well saturated part of the country. The threat of heavy rain does not end with sunset on Thursday evening. In fact, perhaps the biggest threat of additional heavy rainfall in the Mid-Atlantic region will come on Thursday night as a potent system impacts the region.
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A weak frontal system will be close enough in proximity today to generate scattered showers and thunderstorms in the NYC metro region. Another and even more potent system will push across the Great Lakes on Thursday and this one can result in widespread afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. The threat of rain can linger into Friday, but there is a chance for a decent weekend following the passage of this late week frontal system to the western Atlantic.
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A frontal system approaches the region later today and it will likely produce scattered mid-day and afternoon showers and thunderstorms. This same stays close by on Wednesday maintaining a threat here of afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms and then another frontal system approaches later Thursday in this still on-going active weather pattern. The late week front could result in more numerous showers and thunderstorms and, hopefully, it will clear the coast by week’s end and pave the way for a decent weekend.
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More than ten inches of rain has fallen during the past 30-days in virtually every state from Florida-to-Maine. These excessive rainfall amounts are quite impressive considering the fact that tropical moisture has not really been involved in the overall weather pattern other than perhaps across Florida earlier in the tropical season. In fact, the heart of the Atlantic Basin tropical season lies ahead beginning typically during the month of August and continuing into October with the climatological peak right around the middle of September. There is nothing yet on the horizon for the eastern US in terms of tropical activity; however, there is a concern that should a tropical system impact this region in coming weeks, the currently very well saturated grounds could set the stage for some flooding issues.
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After an unsettled second half of the weekend, the weather will settle down some today in the Mid-Atlantic region as weak high pressure pushes into the area. With plenty of sunshine today, temperatures should climb to 90 degrees for afternoon highs and the humidity will remain on the high side. A frontal system heads this way on Tuesday increasing the chances of showers and thunderstorms. The second half of the week will feature temperatures peaking out in the mid or upper 80’s and additional frontal systems will renew the threat of daily showers and thunderstorms.
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Heavy showers and strong storms have formed early today across east-central PA and they will impact the NYC metro region and northern NJ between 7 and 8AM…
An unsettled weather pattern has returned to the Mid-Atlantic region and the threat of severe weather and heavy downpours is on the table. A spinning upper-level low over the south-central part of Canada will send multiple waves of energy in coming days around the base of the large-scale trough keeping it quite active in much of the eastern US. One such short-wave will enhance upward motion later today in the Mid-Atlantic region and this will, in turn, increase the chance for some strong-to-severe PM thunderstorm activity…any shower or storm that forms can result in heavy downpours. The threat of showers and thunderstorms will continue late Saturday and Sunday as well with temperatures on both days peaking in the 80’s.
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Many parts of the Mid-Atlantic region and Northeast US were hit by downpours this past weekend and during the first part of this week and another extended period of unsettled weather is about to begin in these same areas. Similar to this last stretch, this upcoming unsettled weather period will include the chance of heavy downpours, localized flooding and strong-to-severe thunderstorms...something not particularly welcomed in many parts of the northeastern quadrant of the nation.
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An unsettled weather pattern returns to the Mid-Atlantic region later today and heavy downpours/strong-to-severe storms will be on the table during this extended active time period. High pressure will push to the east of here this morning opening the door for more humid air to flow back into the region from the Gulf of Mexico. With the increase in moisture, there will be an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms by later today/early tonight and this renewed threat of rain is likely to continue right through the upcoming weekend.
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High pressure will produce another rain-free day around here with very warm conditions and temperatures likely reaching into the 90’s. This same system will push to the east by tomorrow opening the door for more humid air to push back into the Mid-Atlantic region from the Gulf of Mexico. With the increase in moisture, there will be an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms on each day from Thursday through Sunday. This upcoming unsettled weather period in the Mid-Atlantic region could very well include more bursts of heavy rainfall.
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