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Weather forecasting and analysis, space and historic events, climate information
Filtering by Category: NYC
A weak cool front crossed the area on Wednesday and high pressure will follow into the Mid-Atlantic region for the next couple of days. The weekend is shaping up quite nicely for both Saturday and Sunday likely to feature plenty of sunshine and comfortable temperatures. Another cool front arrives by Monday and it’ll turn slightly cooler behind it on Tuesday with highs likely confined to the 60’s.
Read MoreThe weather pattern will change today with the passage of a weak cool frontal system which will kick out the maritime air mass that has been entrenched in the area for the past several days. Temperatures have been limited in recent days by an abundance of clouds and a persistent onshore flow of air; but they’ll return to comfortably warm levels on Thursday and Friday with the return of partial sunshine. The weather will stay quite nice in the Mid-Atlantic region for the upcoming weekend with plenty of sunshine expected on both days.
Read MoreThe next couple of days will remain somewhat unsettled with an upper-level trough hanging nearby and the continuation of a moist, low-level onshore flow of air. The pattern will change at mid-week with the passage of a cool frontal system that will kick the moist, maritime air mass out of here, and sunshine should return for the latter part of the week and upcoming weekend. Temperatures will remain on the cool side during the next couple of days limited by an abundance of clouds and the persistent onshore flow of air; however, they’ll return to comfortably warm levels later in the week with the return of abundant sunshine.
Read MoreHurricane Helene made landfall on Thursday night as a category 4 “major” hurricane near Florida’s Gulf coast town of Perry and then pushed north through Georgia before grinding to a halt over the Tennessee Valley. Tremendous rainfall fell over the southern Appalachians as the result of strong and persistent upsloping winds associated with Hurricane Helene with as much as two feet in some spots and flooding was extreme. The month of September comes to an end with plenty of tropical activity to monitor in the Atlantic Basin and another system is destined for the Gulf of Mexico by this weekend or early part of next week. The tropical season in the Atlantic Basin has now resulted in 11 named tropical storms with four hurricanes having made landfall in the US, and there certainly may be other opportunities to add onto those numbers.
Read MoreThe first half of the week remains somewhat unsettled with an upper-level trough hanging nearby, a continuation of moist low-level onshore flow, and a daily threat of showers. The pattern will change at mid-week with the passage of a cool frontal system that will kick the moist, maritime air mass out of here and sunshine should rule later in the week. Temperatures in general will remain on the cool side limited by an abundance of clouds and persistent onshore flow during the next few days and will return to comfortably warm levels later in the week with the return of abundant sunshine.
Read MoreHurricane Helen came ashore last night near Perry, Florida as a category 4 “major” hurricane and is now pushing through Georgia as a downgraded “tropical storm”. While the remnants of Hurricane Helene will never make it this far north, some of its tropical moisture field will combine with an upper-level low to produce occasional showers around here during the next few days and some of the rain can be heavy at times. In fact, the upper-level low will be such a slow-mover that the unsettled weather conditions in the Mid-Atlantic region will continue all the way through the first half of next week with the threat of showers on each day.
Read MoreHurricane Helene has strengthened during the past 24 hours and is now classified as a strong category 2 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 110 mph. It should continue to intensify today as it closes in on Florida’s Gulf coast with the likelihood of reaching category 3 hurricane status featuring sustained winds of 111 mph or higher and category 4 designation is still on the table. Landfall is expected early tonight along Florida’s “Big Bend” Gulf coastal region as a “major” with a significant storm surge; especially, just to the right of the landfalling location where levels can reach 15-20 feet. With some acceleration expected later today, Helene will not have much time to weaken after landfall and, as such, it is likely to reach into southern Georgia as a hurricane during the wee hours of the morning. The lasting strength of Helene and its expected track into the Tennessee Valley assures significant impact inland to include the state of Georgia, and an especially vulnerable region is the southern Appalachian Mountains where upsloping winds can result in massive rainfall amounts of 1-2 feet and severe flash flooding.
By mid-day on Friday, the tropical system will become increasingly influenced by very strong “blocking” high pressure to the north and an upper-level trough of low pressure located in the southern Mississippi Valley. The tropical low will “rotate around” this upper-level trough of low pressure for a brief time in a pattern known to meteorologists as the “Fujiwhara effect” before it ultimately dissipates and gets absorbed by the upper-level low.
Read MoreHurricane Helene has strengthened during the past 24 hours and is now classified as a category 2 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 100 mph. It should continue to intensify today as it closes in on Florida’s Gulf coast with the likelihood of reaching category 3 hurricane status featuring sustained winds of 111 mph or higher. Landfall is expected early tonight along Florida’s “Big Bend” Gulf coastal region – likely as a “major” – with a significant storm surge; especially, just to the right of the landfalling location where levels can reach 15-20 feet. With some acceleration expected later today, Helene will not have much time to weaken after landfall and, as such, it is likely to reach into southern Georgia as a hurricane during the wee hours of the morning. The lasting strength of Helene and its expected track into the Tennessee Valley assures significant impact inland to include the state of Georgia, and an especially vulnerable region is the southern Appalachian Mountains where upsloping winds can result in massive rainfall amounts of 1-2 feet and serious flash flooding.
By mid-day on Friday, the tropical system will become increasingly influenced by very strong “blocking” high pressure to the north and an upper-level trough of low pressure located in the southern Mississippi Valley. The tropical low will “rotate around” this upper-level trough of low pressure for a brief time in a pattern known to meteorologists as the “Fujiwhara effect” before it ultimately dissipates and gets absorbed by the upper-level low.
Read MoreAll eyes today on the Gulf of Mexico where Hurricane Helene will intensify as it pushes to in a north-to-northeast direction putting it on a collision course with Florida’s Gulf coast. Hurricane Helene should make landfall early tonight in the “Big Bend” region of Florida’s Gulf coast likely as a category 3 “major” storm; however, climbing to a category 4 designation is on the table.
After landfall, Hurricane Helene will initially push in a northward direction bringing its hurricane-force winds and heavy rainfall to the state of Georgia. Ultimately, the remnants of Hurricane Helene will be forced to turn north and west and towards the Middle Mississippi Valley region due to very strong “blocking” high pressure to the north over Canada. Excessive rainfall amounts can spread throughout much of the southern Appalachians as upsloping winds will enhance upward motion and likely result in some tremendous amounts of rainfall.
In the Mid-Atlantic, there is a good chance of showers today with isolated thunderstorms as a warm frontal system pushes through the region…some of the rain can come down hard at times. After that, there is a good chance that some of the tropical moisture field associated with Hurricane Helene will make it this far north for the Friday/Saturday time period. As a result, showers will be a threat as we end the work week and begin the upcoming weekend.
Read MoreTropical Storm Helene has strengthened during the past 24 hours and is on the verge of attaining “category 1” hurricane status with sustained winds of 74-95 mph. All indications are that Helene will undergo rapid intensification during the next 24 hours or so given the combination of favorable environmental conditions such as low vertical wind shear and ample moisture, and its movement over very warm water with high oceanic heat content. This expected intensification of Helene will likely result in attainment of “major” hurricane classification on Thursday as a category 3 storm system with sustained winds of 111 mph – 129 mph. Helene should begin to accelerate tomorrow in a north-to-northeast direction likely resulting in a landfall early tomorrow night along Florida’s “Big Bend” Gulf coastal region. As is typical of northward moving tropical storms, the storm surge should be most impactful to the right of the landfall location potentially affecting coastal sections down to areas just north of Tampa Bay. In addition, there will be the threat of tornadoes to the right of the storm’s track including portions of northern and eastern Florida, Georgia and South Carolina.
After landfall, the remnants of the hurricane will move along at a pretty good clip in a general northward direction through the state of Georgia where there is likely to be significant impact including hurricane-force wind gusts and excessive rainfall amounts. In fact, excessive rainfall may extend to throughout much of the southern Appalachians where strong upsloping winds will enhance upward motion and increase overall amounts. By mid-day on Friday, the tropical system will become increasingly influenced by very strong “blocking” high pressure to the north and an upper-level trough of low pressure located in the southern Mississippi Valley. The tropical low will “rotate around” this upper-level trough of low pressure for a brief time in a pattern known to meteorologists as the “Fujiwhara effect” before it ultimately dissipates and gets absorbed by the upper-level low.
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