A cold front cross the region on Tuesday, but the air behind it will not be all that cold and temperatures later today should peak near 50 degrees. Low pressure from the Tennessee Valley will move northeast later today and spread rain into our area from later tonight into Thanksgiving Day. Temperatures on Thursday are likely to spend most of the day in the 40’s and it turns colder by the upcoming weekend as a broad northwesterly flow of air forms on the backside of the departing low pressure system. The cold air outbreak that reaches the Mid-Atlantic region this weekend will be the opening salvo of what looks like an extended colder-than-normal stretch of weather that likely lasts through the first couple of weeks of December.
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One of the biggest weather stories going forward is the cold wave that is coming to much of the nation beginning late this week and likely continuing for much of the first couple weeks of December. In fact, this will likely be one of the coldest starts to the month of December in many years and it will have a “Siberian” connection.
Before we get to the cold wave, there will be a lot of weather to go through across much of the nation with significant snowfall in some areas. Low pressure is currently pushing eastward across the higher elevations of the western US resulting in substantial snow accumulations from the Sierra Nevada Mountains of eastern California to the Colorado Rockies. Some of these locations will end up with snow totals on the order of 1-2 feet before this low spills out into the middle of the nation at mid-week.
From there, this low pressure system will move rather quickly across the Tennessee Valley on Wednesday night and to the southern New England coastline by mid-day Thursday. As a result, rain is likely to reach the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor by late Wednesday night and continue into Thursday (Thanksgiving Day). Farther to the north, accumulating snow is likely to fall from early Thursday into early Friday across interior, higher elevation locations of northern PA, upstate NY and interior New England with several inches on the table.
Following the departure of the low pressure system to the western Atlantic, a northwesterly flow of air will develop across the northeastern quadrant of the nation bringing much colder-than-normal air from Canada into the Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast US. The “Great Lakes snow machine” will get turned on with the much colder-than-normal air flowing over the still relatively warm waters of the Great Lakes from later Friday into Saturday and there is likely to be much more in the way of “lake-effect” snow activity during this upcoming cold wave.
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A cold front will cross the region early today and there will be occasional showers this morning and then some clearing later in the afternoon. It’ll be chilly on Wednesday with partly sunny skies and then attention turns to a low pressure system that will approach the region from the southwest. This system will likely push rain into the area from late Wednesday night into Thursday and then it should turn out to chilly and breezy on Friday with clearing skies. The weekend looks windy and cold in the Mid-Atlantic region and the colder-than-normal pattern that sets up this weekend is likely to last through at least the first full week of December.
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Low pressure will push eastward across the higher elevations of the western US during the next few days resulting in significant snow accumulations on the order of 1-2 feet from the Sierra Nevada Mountains of easter California to the Colorado Rockies. This same low pressure system will then spill out into the middle of the nation at mid-week and move rather quickly across the Tennessee Valley on Wednesday night and to the Mid-Atlantic coastline by mid-day Thursday. As a result, rain is likely to reach the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor by late Wednesday night and continue into Thursday (Thanksgiving Day) morning. Farther to the north, accumulating snow may fall from Thursday into Friday across interior, higher elevation locations of upstate PA and upstate NY to New England.
Following the departure of the low pressure system to the western Atlantic, a northwesterly flow of air will develop across the northeastern states bringing much colder-than-normal air from Canada into the Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic and NE US. The “Great Lakes snow machine” will turn on with the much colder-than-normal air flowing over the still relatively warm waters of the Great Lakes. Looking ahead, the influx of much colder-than-normal air into the eastern states by this weekend will begin a cold pattern that is likely to last well into December... one of the coldest starts in many years to the month of December and it will have a “Siberian connection”.
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A cold front will cross the region on Tuesday and it is likely to bring some rain to the area from late tonight into early Thursday. After the frontal passage, it’ll be chilly on Wednesday with partly sunny skies and then attention turns to a low pressure system that will approach the region from the southwest. This system will likely push rain into the area from late Wednesday night into Thursday and then it should turn out to chilly and breezy on Friday with clearing skies. The weekend looks windy and cold in the Mid-Atlantic region and the colder-than-normal pattern that sets up this weekend is likely to last through at least the first full week of December.
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Colder air has wrapped into our slow-moving storm system and there will be plenty of moisture to deal with today throughout the Mid-Atlantic region. As a result, snow or a mix of rain and snow is likely this morning across many of the northern and western suburbs and there can be small grassy accumulations. Any snow that falls this morning is likely to change back to rain this afternoon as the overall upward motion in the atmosphere weakens. Significant snowfall is likely across the higher elevation locations of northwestern New Jersey and across the Catskills and Adirondacks in upstate NY where early season skiing conditions should be quite good. Any snow that falls will be of the “wet” variety as low-level temperatures will be “borderline” throughout this event.
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A strong cold front passed through in the overnight hours with a band of heavy rainfall and gusty winds and colder air has followed into the Mid-Atlantic region. Surface low pressure has formed along the northern Mid-Atlantic coastline, and instead of pushing to the north, it will be “forced” to rotate around as it becomes increasingly influenced by strong blocking high pressure to the north. As such, an area of moisture now over the northern Mid-Atlantic will loop back around and impact the entire region by later tonight and through the day on Friday.
As the atmosphere turns colder, the precipitation will mix with snow and/or ice pellets by later tonight in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor and then likely to all snow for awhile on Friday in much of the area. In fact, small accumulations are possible on Friday across many of the northern and western suburbs along the I-95 corridor. Significant snowfall of at least 6-12 inches is coming to much of the Appalachian Mountain chain including in the region from West Virginia to the Laurel Highlands of southwestern PA, and from the Poconos in northeastern PA to the Catskills and Adirondacks of upstate NY.
Looking ahead, there are signs for multiple cold air outbreaks to make their way from northern Canada into the central and eastern US as we push through the remainder of November and into the early part of December...quite a wintry look to the unfolding weather pattern that will include additional threats of snow for the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US.
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With a deepening upper-level trough overhead and a developing surface low pressure system, “wraparound” rain showers will continue today in an unstable environment and they’ll continue off and on right through tomorrow evening. The surface low pressure system will, in fact, be “forced” to rotate around for a period of time as it becomes increasingly influenced by the strong blocking high pressure system stationed to the north of here over northeastern Canada.
As colder air wraps into the system, the rain can mix with snow later tonight and perhaps can change to all snow for awhile on Friday. In fact, small accumulations are even possible on Friday across some of the northern and western suburbs of the NYC metro region. There will significant snowfall across some of the higher elevation locations of upstate NY from the Catskills to the Adirondacks where some early season skiing looks quite possible.
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If you are a skier in the northeastern part of the country then this upcoming storm system will be quite good news as early season significant accumulating snow is likely in much of the Appalachian Mountain chain including in the region from West Virginia to the Laurel Highlands of southwestern PA and from the Poconos in northeastern PA to the Catskills and Adirondacks of upstate NY. In fact, snow is quite possible during this event all the way into the I-95 corridor and small accumulations are possible on Friday in some of the northern and western suburbs; especially, to the north of the PA/MD border.
A deepening trough of low pressure in the upper atmosphere will slide south and east to a position over the Mid-Atlantic by tomorrow night and this will help to spawn a (secondary) low pressure system near the northern Mid-Atlantic coastline. This system will become a slow-mover thanks to intense blocking high pressure to the north that will be parked over northeastern Canada. In addition to the threat for the first snows of the season, the northeastern states will experience very beneficial rainfall on the storm’s front end as a cold front pushes through from late today into early Thursday…and that won’t be the end of the precipitation.
Looking ahead, there are signs for multiple cold air outbreaks to make their way from northern Canada into the central and eastern US as we push through the remainder of November and into the early part of December.. It is quite a wintry look to this unfolding weather pattern that will include additional snow threats…perhaps one late next week right around Thanksgiving Day.
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A developing storm system will begin to impact the region with rainfall from early tonight into Thursday and it is likely to turn out to be the highest rainfall totals that we’ve seen in quite awhile with 0.75” to 1.25” possible by morning. This developing storm system will be a slow mover due to strong blocking high pressure to the north and its impacts here will continue through Friday with “wraparound” showers and persistently strong winds. From tomorrow afternoon through Friday, instability rain showers are likely and enough cold air can wrap into the system for a mixing with or even a changeover to snow; especially, in the far northern and western suburbs. Significant snow is likely across some interior, higher elevation locations across northwestern NJ and upstate NY to include the Catskills and Adirondacks...an early season delight for skiers.
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