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Blog

Weather forecasting and analysis, space and historic events, climate information

Filtering by Category: NYC

Sunday mid-day | ****Winter storm to impact southern Mid-Atlantic region…snow arrives in DC near midnight…before daybreak in Philly…little impact in NYC…a look ahead to more cold and storm threats****

Paul Dorian

Low pressure will intensify today as it treks eastward through the Tennessee Valley and reaches the coastal waters of the southern Mid-Atlantic by Monday evening. This system will continue to produce significant snowfall along the way with a foot in many areas and there will be a swath of disruptive ice immediately to the south of the heavy snow zone. In addition, there will be an enhanced risk of severe weather later today and early tonight in the storm’s warm sector centered over the Lower Mississippi Valley region.

Snow should arrive in the DC metro region around midnight and into the Philly metro just before daybreak. The heaviest snow in both places will likely be on the front end meaning late tonight and during Monday morning. In fact, there can be a lull in the precipitation on Monday afternoon and then some areas will receive “backend” snow on Monday evening; especially, in the region from DC to the Delmarva to southern NJ. The advance of the snow shield to the north will be inhibited by very dry air stationed over the Northeast US. As such, the storm’s effects will be more limited in places like Philadelphia compared to Washington, D.C. and virtually nonexistent up across New York City. Looking ahead, all indications point to plenty of cold weather left in January – potentially some extreme cold – and multiple storm threats including the possibility of one by the weekend.

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****Major winter storm from central Plains to Mid-Atlantic with significant snow, disruptive ice…watch for “cold conveyor belt” snow on the backend...late week/weekend storm threat****

Paul Dorian

Low pressure will intensify over the central Plains on Sunday and it will become a major winter storm with widespread impact as it treks eastward reaching the coastal waters of the Mid-Atlantic region by Monday night. This system will produce significant snowfall along the way with more than a foot in many areas and there will be a swath of disruptive ice immediately to the south of the heavy snow zone. In addition, there will be an enhanced risk of severe weather on Sunday in the storm’s warm sector over the Lower Mississippi Valley region. The storm arrives in the Mid-Atlantic region late Sunday night and precipitation can last all the way into Monday night in some sections thanks in part to the likely development of “cold conveyor belt” snow on the back end.

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6:15 AM | **A cold weekend shaping up...a chance of accumulating snow late Sunday night and Monday**

Paul Dorian

An Arctic cold front will approach the region today and it can produce a couple of snow showers in the area from later this afternoon into early this evening. The weekend will be quite cold with Arctic high pressure in control limiting our temperatures to the low-to-middle 30’s for afternoon highs on both days.

By the latter part of the weekend, low pressure will begin to intensify over the middle of the nation and it’ll have quite a bit of cold air to work with resulting in plenty of accumulating snow on its north side. This system will slide from west-to-east by Sunday night and Monday producing a significant snowfall along the way across the Midwest. There is a chance for snow here on Monday, but the heaviest amounts may stay just to our south…stay tuned on that. This system will then slide off the east coast by Tuesday of next week and more Arctic air will follow encompassing a wide part of the nation.

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****A couple of snow events in the Mid-Atlantic…a burst of snow later Friday…an important snow threat for late Sunday night and Monday with several inches on the table****

Paul Dorian

A colder and active weather pattern is indeed unfolding for the central and eastern US and it is likely to bring two threats of snow to the Mid-Atlantic region during the next several days. First, an upper-level wave will rotate around the base of a large-scale trough of low pressure later tomorrow and it can produce snow showers in the area and maybe even a period of steadier snow; primarily, in the region from DC/northern Delmarva-to-southeastern PA/southern NJ…small accumulations are on the table. A surge of Arctic air will follow the system later tomorrow night setting us up for a cold weekend in the Mid-Atlantic region. A more important threat of snow comes for late Sunday night and Monday as low pressure moves eastward from the Midwest with significant accumulations on the table in portions of the Mid-Atlantic region including the DC-to-Philly corridor.

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6:15 AM | **Colder and windy today and then even colder this weekend...chance of snow on Monday**

Paul Dorian

It turns colder today and then even colder this weekend following the passage of a cold front on Friday night that will usher in Arctic air for Saturday and Sunday. The cold front can produce a couple of snow showers around here late tomorrow and Arctic high pressure will take control by the weekend.

By the latter part of the weekend, low pressure will begin to organize over the middle of the nation and it’ll have quite a bit of cold air to work with resulting in plenty of accumulating snow on its north side. This system will slide east by Sunday night and Monday producing a significant snowfall in the Midwest and there is a chance for some snow here on Monday. This system will then slide off the east coast by Tuesday of next week and Arctic air will encompass a wide part of the nation.

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6:15 AM | *2025 begins with very windy weather conditions...gusts up to 40 mph on the back side of departing low pressure*

Paul Dorian

The passage of a cold front will usher in cooler air for today and winds can gust to 40 mph on the backside of departing low pressure. It turns progressively colder later this week and weekend as the pattern change to much colder-than-normal kicks into full gear. There will also be the chance for snow shower activity on Friday as we transition to the colder conditions with the passage of a cold front.

By the latter part of the weekend, low pressure will begin to organize over the middle of the nation and it’ll have quite a bit of cold air to work with resulting in plenty of snow on its north side. This system will slide east by Sunday night and Monday likely producing a decent snowfall in the Midwest and there is a chance for some snow to make its way into at least portions of the Mid-Atlantic with the southern half of the region likely having the highest probabilities (e.g., DC, Baltimore). This system will then slide off the east coast around Tuesday of next week and Arctic air will encompass a wide part of the nation.

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****Very cold and active pattern setting up with staying power...extreme cold on the table...snow threats begin this weekend/early next week...big impact coming to the southern states****

Paul Dorian

A much colder-than-normal weather pattern is about to commence for the central and eastern US and it looks like it’ll be one with some staying power. In fact, this upcoming cold stretch for much of the nation may feature some extreme cold and very cold conditions may penetrate all the way into the southern states from Texas-to-Florida. In addition, there are likely to be multiple snow threats in this developing weather pattern that can impact much of the central and eastern US to go along with the expected much colder-than-normal temperatures. Next week looks particularly interesting in a period that may feature some extremely cold air and multiple threats of snow including one in the Sunday/Monday/Tuesday time frame for the Midwest and at least portions of the Mid-Atlantic.  Numerous teleconnection indices support the notion of a much colder-than-normal weather pattern, and an unfolding stratospheric warming event enhances the idea that the much colder-than-normal temperature pattern can be sustained well into the month of January.

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6:15 AM | ***A very wet end to 2024...colder for Thursday and Friday...even colder this weekend...snow chance early next week***

Paul Dorian

Low pressure will bring more rain to the region from later today into tonight and there can be a strong thunderstorm mixed into the picture. Moderately cold air will follow for Thursday and Friday on the heels of a mid-week cold frontal passage. It’ll turn even colder this weekend as our long anticipated pattern change to much colder-than-normal conditions becomes better established. This pattern change to colder weather for the central and eastern states will be quite active as well and there may be some snow in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor by early next week. Bitter cold Arctic air could be in the cards across much of the nation by later next week and a second storm threat is possible as well.

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9:45 AM (Monday) | ****Very cold and active pattern to set up in early January with some staying power…may feature extreme cold and multiple snow threats…next week looks particularly interesting****

Paul Dorian

A much colder-than-normal weather pattern will set up for the central and eastern US during early January and it looks like it’ll be one with some staying power. In fact, this upcoming cold stretch for much of the nation may feature some extreme cold and very cold conditions may penetrate all the way into the Deep South from Texas-to-Florida. In addition, there are likely to be multiple snow threats in this developing weather pattern that can impact much of the central and eastern US to go along with the expected much colder-than-normal temperatures. Next week looks particularly interesting in a period that may feature multiple snow and ice threats and potentially some extremely cold air. Numerous teleconnection indices support the notion of a much colder-than-normal weather pattern, and an unfolding stratospheric warming event enhances the idea that the much colder-than-normal temperature pattern can be sustained well into the month of January.

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6:15 AM | ***An important pattern change begins at mid-week to one that looks very cold and active for much of January***

Paul Dorian

The beginning of the week will remain on the mild side with some sunshine later today and then the next low pressure system will bring us more rain from later tomorrow into early Wednesday, New Year’s Day. Moderately cold air will push into the Mid-Atlantic region at mid-week and it turns even colder during the upcoming weekend. In fact, a much colder-than-normal weather pattern will set up for much of the central and eastern US and it looks like it’ll be one with some staying power. This upcoming cold stretch may feature some extreme cold and very cold conditions may penetrate all the way into the Deep South from Texas-to-Florida. In addition, there are likely to be multiple snow threats in this developing weather pattern that can impact much of the central and eastern US to go along with the expected much colder-than-normal temperatures. Next week looks particularly interesting that may feature multiple snow threats and some extreme cold may get mixed into the picture.

Get ready…January might just be a wild month of weather.

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