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Blog

Weather forecasting and analysis, space and historic events, climate information

Filtering by Category: NYC

6:00 AM | **Very hot and humid today with late day/evening showers and thunderstorms possible...some of the storms can be strong**

Paul Dorian

Temperatures will climb well up into the 90’s today ahead of an approaching cold frontal system that’ll then stall in close proximity this weekend. The threat of showers and thunderstorms will increase later in the day, continue this evening, and some of the storms can be strong. With the front hanging nearby this weekend, it’ll be somewhat unsettled with additional showers and thunderstorms possible; especially, during the day on Sunday. It stays very warm and humid during the first half of next week, but a pattern change late next week could bring us a pleasant end to July and start to August.

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*Hot, humid pattern from Friday into mid-week...next week’s pattern conducive to "MCCs"...an August preview...pleasant start...ramp up in tropical activity...MJO update*

Paul Dorian

Heat and humidity will increase today in the Mid-Atlantic region and temperatures should reach well into the 90’s on Friday along the I-95 corridor. It stays very warm and humid this weekend and through the first half of next week. In terms of prospects for rain, an approaching frontal system late tomorrow will increase the chance of showers and thunderstorms; especially, on the NW side of I-95. This front stalls out this weekend nearby and the result will be the threat of showers and thunderstorms from time-to-time.

Looking ahead, the pattern changes noticeably by later next week across the northeastern states with an upper-level trough of low pressure intensifying over southeastern Canada. Comfortable air is likely to drop south and east from Canada into the Northeast US and Mid-Atlantic region late next week and the first several days of August might be rather pleasant. It is at this time that conditions might change in the tropical Atlantic Ocean which can lead to a ramp up in activity by the middle of the new month and a teleconnection index (MJO) supports this notion.

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6:15 AM | *High heat and humidity on Friday with temperatures reaching the mid-to-upper 90's...showers and thunderstorms possible late Friday and some of the storms can be strong*

Paul Dorian

Heat and humidity will begin to climb today in the Mid-Atlantic region and temperatures will soar on Friday with afternoon highs likely in the mid-to-upper 90’s. A cold front approaches the area by tomorrow night and then stalls out in close proximity this weekend. This slow-moving frontal system will bring us the chance of showers and thunderstorms late tomorrow and some of the storms can be strong…weekend looks somewhat unsettled as well.

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*Unsettled weather returns this weekend and next week’s pattern with northwest flow aloft could produce “mesoscale convective complexes”...a pleasant start to August is on the table*

Paul Dorian

The last few days have been relatively quiet in the Mid-Atlantic region with dry and warm conditions dominating the scene. Heat and humidity will build up later in the week and an approaching frontal system could lead to showers and thunderstorms by Friday night. That front will stall-out nearby this weekend and likely result in a shower and thunderstorm threat on both weekend days.

The upper-level pattern next week will feature strong high pressure ridging over the south-central states and a northwest flow of air from the Great Lakes to the Northeast US. This kind of pattern sometimes produces complexes of thunderstorms that travel in the northwest flow from the Great Lakes/Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US...something to monitor during the next several days. Looking ahead, there are signs that a strong upper-level trough may become positioned over southeastern Canada at the end of next week potentially bringing a pleasant start to the month of August.

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6:15 AM | *Buildup of heat and humidity on Thursday and Friday...shower/thunderstorm threat late Friday and on both days this weekend*

Paul Dorian

High pressure that had been positioned to our northwest during the past couple of days will shift offshore today and then even farther out to sea on Thursday. This re-positioning of the high pressure system will open the door for a buildup of heat and humidity in the Mid-Atlantic region during Thursday and Friday with temperatures likely peaking on Friday afternoon in the mid-to-upper 90’s. In terms of rainfall, a cold front approaches the area late in the day on Friday and then hangs nearby through the upcoming weekend. As a result, unsettled weather conditions will make a return with the chance of showers and thunderstorms late Friday and again on both weekend days.

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6:15 AM | *Comfortable warmth today with low humidity...hot and humid weather returns by the end of the week*

Paul Dorian

The week started off with improving weather conditions on Monday featuring comfortably warm conditions and it should turn out even better today following the passage of a secondary cold frontal system. Humidity will be low today and the comfortable temperature pattern will continue and there should be plenty of sunshine though an isolated afternoon shower cannot be completely ruled out; especially, over parts of New Jersey. As high pressure shifts from our northwest today to our east later this week, the heat and humidity will make a dramatic return to the area. In fact, temperatures by Friday are likely to reach the low-to-mid 90’s ahead of the next frontal system which will increase chances for showers and thunderstorms around here this weekend.

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6:15 AM | *A great first half of the week in the Mid-Atlantic region*

Paul Dorian

A strong cold front moved through the Mid-Atlantic region on Sunday night paving the way for a great start to the new work week, and a secondary cold front will follow later today. As a result, it will be comfortably warm with low humidity values through the first half of the week, and there will be plenty of sunshine on each day as well. High pressure pushes off the coast for the late week time period and heat and humidity will make a dramatic return to the region. The next frontal system approaches by the end of the week and it’ll increase the chances for showers and thunderstorms on Friday night and Saturday.

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6:00 AM | *The end of the work week brings us a nice break in the humidity*

Paul Dorian

A cold front will clear the coast this morning and its passage will usher in more comfortable air to end the work week with lower humidity levels. The weather becomes unsettled again for the weekend with showers and thunderstorms from time-to-time and high temperatures in the 80’s. A strong cold front comes through on Sunday night paving the way for nice weather on Monday and Tuesday with comfortably warm conditions and low humidity.

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6:15 AM | **Hot and humid today and becoming quite breezy...much more comfortable conditions on Friday, Friday night, and the bulk of the day on Saturday**

Paul Dorian

A stalled-out frontal system has turned around and pushed northward through the region as a warm front paving the way for a hot and humid afternoon and high temperatures in the lower 90’s. A cold front approaches the area late today and crosses by early Friday and its passage will usher in much more comfortable conditions with lower humidity for tomorrow, tomorrow night, and much of the day on Saturday. The humidity does build back up again on Saturday night and Sunday and the chance of showers and thunderstorms will also make a return. Another cold front is likely to cross the region by Sunday night paving the way for a dry and comfortably warm start to next week.

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Wed. PM - **Atmosphere about to "re-ignite"...another round of showers and thunderstorms on the way with flooding downpours on the table (again)...break in the humidity from Friday into Saturday**

Paul Dorian

The combination of a tropical air mass, a stalled-out frontal boundary zone, and an upper-level disturbance will “re-ignite” the atmosphere this afternoon and the result is very likely to be yet another round of heavy showers and strong thunderstorms for much of the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor. With the likelihood of flooding downpours and the well saturated grounds, flash flood watches have been issued throughout the Mid-Atlantic region by the National Weather Service. This stalled-out front system will turn around by tomorrow and push to the north as a warm front and the heat and humidity should reach a peak in the afternoon with highs up in the 90’s in many places. A cold front then pushes through the northern Mid-Atlantic region later Thursday night into early Friday and it then stalls out across the southern Mid-Atlantic later in the day. As a result, the corridor from Philly to New York City will see a big break in the humidity on Friday, Friday night, and much of Saturday, but the stalled-out front will keep it unsettled and moderately humid in and around the DC metro area. The humidity does build back up again throughout the Mid-Atlantic region for the second half of the weekend and the chance of showers and thunderstorms will also make a return.

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