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Blog

Weather forecasting and analysis, space and historic events, climate information

Filtering by Category: NYC

6:00 AM | *Another unsettled day in the Mid-Atlantic region with showers and possible thunderstorms...nice, comfortable stretch likely Thursday through Monday*

Paul Dorian

It stays on the unsettled side for another day in the Mid-Atlantic region with mainly cloudy skies, occasional showers, and maybe a thunderstorm…some of the rain can be briefly on the heavy side. High pressure from the Great Lakes will head this way for the late week and dominate the weather picture into early next week and it’ll turn noticeably drier compared to recent days. Temperatures will be cooler-than-normal, but that is on the comfortable side given the time of year and there should be an abundance of sunshine each day from tomorrow through Monday.

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*El Nino continues to unfold across the equatorial Pacific...signs point to a strong event with implications on the upcoming tropical season and potentially next winter as well*

Paul Dorian

El Nino is on the way, and it looks like it will be a strong event...

The equatorial Pacific Ocean is transitioning into El Nino conditions (i.e., warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures) and signs point to a strong event by the summer and fall seasons with big implications on tropical activity in the Atlantic Basin. Looking ahead, it appears this El Nino event may even last into the upcoming winter season of 2026-2027 which no doubt would have some implications across the continental US.

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7:00 AM | *Unsettled pattern continues with showers today mainly south of PA/MD border and in all areas of the Mid-Atlantic later tonight and Wednesday*

Paul Dorian

After our damp and chilly weekend, the weather will turn warmer today across the Mid-Atlantic region and there will be some shower activity in many areas to the south of the PA/MD border. The unsettled weather pattern can bring showers to all areas of the Mid-Atlantic later tonight and on Wednesday, but then it turns drier again for the late week, and the weekend is looking quite nice from this vantage point.

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6:00 AM | *A nice day today following the passage of a frontal system...shower threat returns for the midweek*

Paul Dorian

In the wake of a cold frontal passage, today will turn out to be mainly sunny, dry, and mild, but the unsettled weather pattern will bring us another shower threat on Wednesday and there can be a PM thunderstorm as well. The upper-level trough of low pressure that will generate our unsettled weather conditions at mid-week will hang around until the end of the week, but important changes will then take place this weekend. Upper-level ridging of high pressure that has been stuck over the western states in recent days will move eastward and reach the northeastern part of the nation by later in the weekend. In fact, this high pressure system will intensify markedly early next week and this can result in 90+ degree afternoon highs in the Sunday, Monday, Tuesday time period across some portions of the I-95 corridor. The big-time warm up is likely to be a 3-day affair and temperatures should return to more seasonal levels during the middle of next week.

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*Cool and unsettled weather dominates this week across the northeastern states...overall pattern flips by early next week with 90+ degrees on the table for Sunday, Monday and Tuesday*

Paul Dorian

Much of the week ahead will be rather cool and unsettled across the northeastern part of the nation with a persistent upper-level trough of low pressure sitting nearby. This upper air pattern will keep temperatures generally suppressed to below-normal levels in the Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US and there will be a shower threat from time-to-time. By the weekend, important changes will take place as the upper-level trough over the northeastern US retreats off to the northeast and an upper-level ridge of high pressure edges its way into the area from the western states. This ridge will intensify early next week, and the result could be 90+ degrees in the Sunday/Monday/Tuesday time period in places along the I-95 corridor. Looking beyond, it appears that the big-time warm up early next week will not last too much longer as a frontal system next mid-week is likely to return temperatures to more seasonal levels.   

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6:00 AM | *Front clears through the region this morning allowing for clearing tonight and a nice day on Tuesday*

Paul Dorian

A cold front clears through the region today and after the chance of early day showers, partial sunshine should return in the afternoon across the area. It looks dry on Tuesday and there can be another shower threat at mid-week as an upper-level trough settles over the eastern states. Temperatures remain mild through much of the week and then turn quite warm as we head into the upcoming weekend.

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6:00 AM | *Chance of showers on Saturday...maybe a PM thunderstorm...another shot at showers from later Sunday into Monday and next mid-week*

Paul Dorian

After a dry day to end the work week, an unsettled pattern will return on Saturday bringing the Mid-Atlantic region a chance of showers, maybe even an isolated thunderstorm. Another system has an even better shot at producing showers around here from Sunday night into Monday...sandwiched in between these two systems we’ll try to squeeze out a decent Mother’s Day with sun followed by late day clouds, but late day showers are possible. Yet another shower threat could reach the Mid-Atlantic by mid-week.

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6:00 AM | *Next opportunity for showers comes on Saturday and a second one on Sunday night/Monday and next mid-week*

Paul Dorian

There was some beneficial rainfall on Wednesday in the Mid-Atlantic as a cold front approached the region and there will be other opportunities for showers in coming days. After a dry day to end the work week on Friday, the next disturbance will arrive on Saturday and occasional showers are likely in the area. By Sunday night and Monday, another system will increase the chance of showers as the unsettled weather pattern continues into the early part of next week.

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6:00 AM | **Beneficial rainfall on the way...showers today and tonight...threat again on Saturday....threat again on Sunday night and Monday**

Paul Dorian

A cold front approaches the region today and it will bring us some beneficial rainfall with a shower threat from later this morning on through the evening hours. The front stalls out on Thursday and low pressure will form along the boundary zone; however, the best chance for showers will be just to our south and east. High pressure takes back control of the weather to close out the work week on Friday and then the next disturbance can produce some shower activity around here on Saturday and yet another system on Sunday night and Monday.

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6:00 AM | *Cold front approaches at mid-week bringing occasional showers...maybe a thunderstorm*

Paul Dorian

Becoming quite breezy and warm today in the Mid-Atlantic region on the backside of a high pressure system which is located to the east of here and afternoon temperatures should reach the lower 80’s. A cold front will approach the area at mid-week and low pressure will then form along the slow-moving frontal boundary zone on Thursday. As a result, occasional showers are likely here tomorrow and tomorrow night - maybe a thunderstorm as well - and there can be a few lingering showers on Thursday. High pressure takes back control of the weather to close out the work week on Friday and then a weak disturbance can produce some shower activity here at the beginning of the upcoming weekend.

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