Three different low pressure systems will threaten at least parts of the Mid-Atlantic region over coming days and this active weather pattern is currently featuring a powerful storm in California. The precipitation shield from the first wave of interest for the Mid-Atlantic region looks like it will have its northern extent stretching from around the DC metro region to Atlantic City, NJ. The second system is likely to be rather weak and could result in light rain and/or snow from Sunday night into early Monday. The third threat to monitor in coming days looks like it will have more moisture available to it and may result in another snow-to-ice-to-rain scenario in the Mid-Atlantic come late Tuesday night or Wednesday. Meanwhile, in California, heavy rain continues to fall along coastal sections and heavy snow continues to pile up over the Sierra Nevada Mountains with some incredible snow amounts.
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An active weather pattern will result in three different systems to monitor over the next several days for possible impact in the Mid-Atlantic region. Today will be a quiet and seasonably cold day and then temperatures will climb to the 50's on Friday ahead of a strong cold frontal system and there can be a few showers to end the work week. Colder air moves in behind the front for the weekend and low pressure is likely to head towards the Carolinas on Saturday. This system is likely to produce some snow in areas south of the PA/MD and not result in any significant impact across southern Pennsylvania. A second system is likely to bring snow or a wintry mix to much of the Mid-Atlantic region on Sunday night/early Monday and then a third system could do the same on Tuesday night and Wednesday.
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There is ample empirical evidence that environmental phenomena in one part of the world can have a causal connection to another part of the world and several of these “climate anomalies” are tracked by meteorologists through teleconnection indices. Several of these teleconnection indices are currently suggesting that a cold and stormy stretch of weather is coming to the Mid-Atlantic region which may result in numerous winter storm threats beginning as early as this weekend and perhaps continuing into the month of March.
The teleconnection indices analyzed here include the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Arctic Oscillation (AO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The MJO is related to a tropical disturbance that propagates around the global tropics on a regular basis. The SOI provides us with information on pressure differences across the Pacific Ocean and on the “El Nino Southern Oscillation” (ENSO) state. The AO and NAO indices provide us with information on the pressure and temperature patterns across the North Atlantic/Arctic region. All of these indices are heading into territory which suggests that a cold and stormy weather pattern is unfolding for the Mid-Atlantic region and it could last awhile.
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High pressure will build into the Mid-Atlantic region today and a strong pressure gradient will develop between this incoming high and the departing low pressure system now over southern Canada. As a result, winds will pick up in intensity by mid-day and could gust past 40 mph to go along with the partly sunny skies and possible snow showers. A heavier snow squall is also possible this afternoon which would likely result in a quick drop in visibility and a small snow accumulation. A cold frontal system is likely to bring a few showers here late in the work week and then it'll turn colder for the upcoming weekend. The influx of colder air this weekend could play an important role as one or possibly two low pressure systems have a chance of impacting the Philly metro region...stay tuned.
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Arctic high pressure centered over southeastern Canada continues to funnel cold air down the Northeast US coastline and into the Mid-Atlantic region. This cold, dense air is holding its ground in many suburban spots along the Philly-to-NYC corridor and warmer air advancing northward along the eastern seaboard is being forced up into the upper part of the atmosphere. As a result, low-level temperatures remain at or below freezing in many suburban locations and precipitation-type is bouncing back-and-forth between sleet and freezing rain depending on intensity and snow is even falling in some spots. As the wintry mix continues this afternoon, slick road conditions will persist and ice can build up on untreated surfaces.
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An extended and significant winter weather event that began on Sunday night will continue today with a mixture of snow, sleet and freezing rain ultimately changing to plain rain as temperatures slowly climb above freezing. There can be some ice buildup on untreated surfaces and slick spots on the roadways. Winds will also become a factor today as they’ll noticeably increase in a generally easterly direction. A cold front will sweep through the region later tonight and there is a chance that any leftover precipitation could change to sleet and/or snow before winding down completely by early Wednesday.
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“Round 1” of our extended winter weather event is winding down and “round 2” is about to get underway. The first part of this long event brought some accumulating snow to the Philly metro region and a combination of snow and ice to the DC area while NYC stayed precipitation-free. “Round 2” will result in heavier overall precipitation amounts with accumulating snow and ice in Philly and NYC and an icing threat for some of the suburbs to the north and west of DC.
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An extended and significant winter weather event that began last night will continue into tomorrow, but there may be a lull in the precipitation during today’s mid-day and afternoon hours. Copious amounts of moisture will flow northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic region later today and snow is likely to re-develop by late in the day or early tonight after the possible lull. Snow should continue into the overnight hours and then mix with or change to sleet and freezing rain. A wintry mix on Tuesday will then change to plain rain late as winds pick up and temperatures climb above freezing. New snow and ice accumulations between this morning and early tomorrow should be on the order of 2-5 inches and road conditions could be impacted right through early Tuesday. More frozen precipitation is possible late tomorrow night for a brief time as the storm winds down.
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A couple of systems will bring an extended wintry weather event to the Mid-Atlantic region resulting in significant snow and/or ice. The first system will generate precipitation in the region from later this evening into early Monday morning and, with little down time in between, a second and stronger system will bring heavier precipitation amounts from later tomorrow into late Tuesday. Given the expected combination of snow and ice and very cold ground-level conditions, travel may become hazardous for commutes on both Monday and Tuesday in much of the region.
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A couple of systems will bring wintry weather to the Mid-Atlantic region and while neither may be major snow producers, they both can be quite impactful. It appears each of these two systems may bring some snow and ice to the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor in the period from Sunday night into late Tuesday. One disturbance will arrive on Sunday night with precipitation mainly in the form of snow north of the PA/MD border and a mix of snow and ice south of the Mason-Dixon Line. A second and stronger system with more moisture will bring snow, ice and rain to the Mid-Atlantic region from late Monday afternoon into late Tuesday. Given the expected combination of snow and ice and the cold ground-level conditions, roads may become an issue for commutes on both Monday and Tuesday in much of the region. Accumulations of up to a few inches of snow and ice are possible with each event north of the PA/MD border and from a coating to an inch or two south of the PA/MD border.
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