Following a frontal passage in the overnight hours, less humid air will move into the region and we’ll have a return of mainly sunny skies. High pressure will continue to maintain control of our weather on Friday and the holiday weekend is looking pretty decent with rather comfortable temperatures for the end of August. Meanwhile, on the tropical scene, Hurricane Dorian has become a major threat for the SE US and especially the Florida Peninsula as it will encounter favorable atmospheric and oceanic conditions over the next few days which could result in the attainment of “major” hurricane status for the storm.
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All residents from North Carolina to Florida should closely monitor Tropical Storm Dorian over the next few days as it can have a major impact by later this weekend or early next week in any part of this region. Tropical Storm Dorian has strengthened over the past 12-18 hours and has effectively fought off dry air over the Caribbean Sea. In addition, the current track will take the storm over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands in the near term – largely avoiding the island of Hispaniola which could have resulted in substantial weakening given its rugged terrain. Once TS Dorian makes it past the Caribbean islands and into the southwestern Atlantic, it’ll move over very warm waters and encounter more favorable environmental conditions (e.g., low wind shear) for intensification. If TS Dorian doesn’t reach hurricane status in the next several hours, it is very likely to in the next day or two once out over the southwest Atlantic Ocean and “major” (category 3+) hurricane status is certainly on the table in a few days.
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It’ll turn warmer today ahead of an approaching cool front and there will be an increase in humidity. A couple of showers are likely this afternoon and a late day or evening thunderstorm is possible as well. Following the front, humidity will lower on Thursday and temperatures will again be cooler-than-normal for this time of year and quite comfortable. High pressure looks like it’ll control the weather through much of the upcoming Labor Day weekend and temperatures will remain pretty comfortable for the end of August and beginning of September on Sunday.
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It’ll remain quite comfortable today and then turn warmer and more humid on Wednesday ahead of the next cool front. That front can result in a couple of showers tomorrow afternoon and maybe a late day or evening thunderstorm. It'll turn less humid again on Thursday following the frontal passage and high pressure should ensure us a pretty decent end to the work week and start to the long, holiday weekend.
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After a quiet start to the month in terms of Atlantic Basin tropical activity, the last week of August is beginning with one tropical system over the western Atlantic Ocean and a tropical storm nearing the Caribbean Sea. Tropical Storm Dorian is fast approaching the Windward Islands and it could become a hurricane once over the warm waters of the eastern Caribbean. There is currently some dry air over the Caribbean Sea out ahead of Tropical Storm Dorian which could limit its intensification prospects later in the week and its ultimate track will be quite crucial. A track over the rugged terrain of Hispaniola Island, for example, would likely weaken the system, but that is not a certainty at this point. Finally, the eventual path and intensification of the initial tropical system over the western Atlantic could, in turn, have an impact on TS Dorian depending on its movement and development in coming days.
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High pressure moving off the New England coastline will continue to provide us with comfortable temperature and humidity levels as we begin the new work week along with mainly sunny skies. After a decent day on Tuesday, it’ll turn warmer on Wednesday ahead of another cold frontal system and there will be an increased chance of showers and thunderstorms. Meanwhile, a tropical system off the east coast will continue to push to the northeast over the next couple days and it could intensify into tropical storm status. Tropical Storm ‘Dorian’ has picked up slightly in intensity during the past 24 hours as it closes in on the Windward Islands and eastern Caribbean. Its maximum sustained winds are now up to 60 mph with movement to the west at 14 mph.
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A refreshing air mass for this time of year has arrived and the cold front that ushered in this change it is only slowing grinding its way through the region. As a result, occasional showers will continue this afternoon in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor and some of the rain can come down hard at times. There can also be an embedded thunderstorm or two along the frontal boundary zone; primarily, to the south of the PA/MD border.
On the tropical scene, low pressure just east of the Upper Florida Keys at mid-day will slowly drift west over the next day or so which will move it over the Florida Peninsula and this should limit development. After that, this tropical system should push back to the northeast and over the western Atlantic where sea surface temperatures are running at warmer-than-normal levels. Consequently, this system should intensify later in the weekend and into the early part of next week - perhaps becoming the next named tropical storm or even a hurricane.
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A much more refreshing air mass will arrive today in the Mid-Atlantic region and it’ll stay comfortable right into the early part of next week. As the cold front only slowly grinds its way through the area today, there will additional showers and perhaps an embedded thunderstorm or two. Highs today will be confined to the 70's and it’ll turn refreshingly cool by early tomorrow morning with many spots recording lows in the upper 50’s. On the tropical scene, low pressure near the Bahamas this morning will meander off the eastern seaboard over the next couple of days. Given the warm waters in that part of the western Atlantic Ocean, tropical storm formation is on the table by early next week and it would be named 'Dorian'.
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There is a refreshing air mass headed our way for this weekend and there are signs that there could be a repeat performance for next (Labor Day) weekend as well with both air masses backed up by strong high pressure to the north and west. The transition from today’s warmth and high humidity to below-normal temperatures will likely come with one more round of heavy rainfall and strong thunderstorms as the cold from arrives late this evening. The threat for showers and thunderstorms will continue into Friday as the front grinds its way through the region, but late tomorrow and much of the weekend will feature drier weather and comfortable temperatures and humidity levels.
On the tropical scene, low pressure will meander off the eastern seaboard over the next several days and given the warm waters in that part of the western Atlantic, tropical storm formation is not out of the question. Later next week or during the Labor Day weekend, there are signs for some potential activity over the Gulf of Mexico where sea surface temperatures are quite warm as well.
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A much more refreshing air mass will arrive here on Friday and it'll stay around all weekend with comfortable temperatures and humidity levels. The transition to the below-normal temperatures will come with more rain perhaps late in the day, but more likely holding off until tonight and some of it can be heavy at times. As the cold front grinds its way through the region on Friday, there still can be a few showers or storms around early, but some sun is likely later tomorrow and refreshingly cool conditions will be felt tomorrow night. The weekend will feature sunshine on both days to go along with the comfortable temperatures and humidity values, but a shower or two cannot be ruled out.
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