Temperatures reached the 60’s this past weekend and this will be just a fond memory by the time we reach the upcoming weekend as a significant pattern change will begin that will return winter weather to the central and eastern US after an extended hiatus. In fact, an Arctic outbreak at the end of the work week will be backed up by strong, high pressure to the north and this will set the stage for a potential accumulating snow event for the DC, Philly and NYC metro regions on Saturday. This initial blast of Arctic air does not look like it will be the last. Indeed, it appears more and more likely that the latter part of January and perhaps much of the month of February will feature multiple cold air outbreaks from Canada into the central and eastern US and, no doubt, this will lead to additional snow threats.
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High pressure will build to our north today and it’ll turn cooler than Sunday, but still above-normal for the middle of January. Weak low pressure will head in this direction on Tuesday and increase the chance for showers, but should be nothing significant. Another low pressure system and its associated cold front can throw another shower our way on Thursday before ushering in an Arctic air mass at week’s end (and an overall colder weather pattern will get underway). This cold air outbreak is likely to set the stage for snow, ice and rain on Friday night and Saturday and front end accumulations are on the table.
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Temperatures have averaged well above normal across the eastern two-thirds of the nation for the first ten days of January, but all signs point to a flip in the overall pattern in about a week or so. While we have had cold air outbreaks in the eastern US during the past couple of weeks, they have not been sustained and milder conditions have returned rather quickly. In fact, after a couple of cold days in the eastern US this week, the weekend will feature a noticeable jump in temperatures with the 60’s possible on both weekend days in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor. The warm up will back down some as we start the new work week, but temperatures should remain above-normal on average for much of next week. After that, however, colder air will likely press in the eastern US and it may have more staying power than recent outbreaks.
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High pressure will shift off the coast today and a southwesterly flow of air will develop in the eastern US on its backside. A warming trend will begin today and then will intensify noticeably on Saturday along with a stiffening SW wind. Highs on Saturday afternoon are likely to be in the lower 60’s which is well above normal for this time of year. A powerful storm will trek towards the eastern Great Lakes on Saturday and wind up over New England by early Sunday. It’ll drag a cool front through the region on Saturday night with the likelihood of showers, perhaps even a strong thunderstorm. It turn a bit cooler early next week, but still warmer-than-normal for mid-January.
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A major storm is going to become a multi-hazard event for much of the eastern half of the nation during the next few days. The storm will begin to unfold on Friday in the south-central US and then trek northeast to a position near the Great Lakes by Saturday evening and then over New England on Sunday. Heavy rain and severe weather is likely to take place south and east of the storm track and significant snow and ice is likely to its north and west. The impact in the I-95 corridor will be to bring unusually warm conditions this weekend with highs generally in the 60’s and there will be some rainfall, stiff winds, and perhaps a heavy thunderstorm or two.
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It’ll remain quite cold today, but the winds will be a non-factor as high pressure moves overhead and relaxes the pressure gradient in the Mid-Atlantic region. This same high pressure system will shift off the east coast on Friday and this will begin a warming trend that will intensify on Saturday. In fact, temperatures are likely to reach 60+ degrees on Saturday as a SW wind stiffens on the backside of the high. A strong storm will pull out of the south-central US on Saturday and head towards the Great Lakes region. This weekend storm will become a news maker in much of the eastern half of the nation as it’ll generate significant snow and ice on its north and west sides and potential severe weather to its south and east. Rain is likely here on Saturday night and it can be accompanied by a thunderstorm to go along with the strong SW winds and unusually mild conditions.
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A major storm system this weekend is going to become a multi-hazard event for much of the eastern half of the nation. The storm will begin to unfold later Friday in the south-central US and then trek northeast to a position near the eastern Great Lakes by Saturday evening and then it’ll end up in New England by early Sunday. Heavy rain and severe weather is likely to take place on Saturday south and east of the storm system and significant snow and ice is likely to its north and west. The I-95 corridor region from DC-to-Philly-to-NYC will experience unusual warmth on Saturday afternoon (e.g., 65 degrees in DC) and then some rainfall and possible thunderstorms on Saturday night and Sunday.
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A cold air mass will pour into the region today follow yesterday’s fast-moving low pressure system with NW wind gusts to 40 mph or so. There is also the good chance for snow shower activity as the atmosphere will stay somewhat unstable along with the possibility of a heavier snow squall or two which could cause a quick drop in visibility and slick driving conditions. High pressure will drift closer in the overnight hours and winds will diminish, but temperatures by morning should be near the 20 degree mark. It stays cold on Thursday although less harsh with little to no wind and then a warm up begins on Friday. That warm up will intensify dramatically on Saturday as high pressure shifts off the east coast and temperatures are likely to soar into the 60’s with some rain possible for Saturday night and Sunday.
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Low pressure is intensifying at this hour as it takes a path from the Tennessee Valley to the coastal waters of New Jersey and it will produce accumulating all along the I-95 corridor. Snow is closing in on the DC metro region and it should reach the Philly area during the mid-to-late afternoon hours and then into NYC by early tonight. While there can be rain mixed in at times in the initial stages of this event, the bulk of the precipitation in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor should be in the form of snow. General accumulations of 1-3 inches are expected from DC-to-Philly with isolated 4 inch amounts possible…slightly lesser snowfall totals are expected in NYC and Boston. Watch for slick road conditions this afternoon and tonight as the snow is likely to come down quite hard at times. In the wake of the storm, it’ll be cold and windy on Wednesday with gusts past 40 mph and snow showers and squalls are quite likely in much of the Mid-Atlantic region. The cold air mass that arrives in the wake of the storm will give way to a big warm up this weekend with the 60’s possible in the I-95 corridor.
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Low pressure will pull out of the Tennessee Valley early today and head towards the coastal waters of New Jersey by early tonight. Snow or a mix of rain and snow is likely to develop here during the mid-to-late afternoon hours. If the precipitation begins as a mixture, it would likely change to all snow shortly thereafter and stay as snow in the evening. Total snow accumulations of 1-3 inches are on the table for the Philly metro region and surrounding suburbs. The low will push away from the Mid-Atlantic coastline later tonight and another cold air mass will follow on Wednesday riding in on strong NW winds. Snow shower activity is likely on Wednesday in the Mid-Atlantic and there can even be heavier snow squalls. It stays cold on Thursday, but the winds die down and then a warm up begins at the end of the week. In fact, temperatures could reach the 60 degree mark on Saturday afternoon and it’s likely to rain for awhile before cooler, drier air returns late in the weekend.
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