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Blog

Weather forecasting and analysis, space and historic events, climate information

Filtering by Category: PHL

7:00 AM | *High pressure in control as we head into the weekend*

Paul Dorian

High pressure has pushed into the northeastern part of the nation and will control our weather into the weekend.  A cold front heads our way later Sunday and it can bring some rain to the region.  This front stalls out to our south next week and a series of low pressures may ride along the frontal boundary zone bringing us the chance for rain, ice and/or snow.

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7:00 AM | **Becoming quite windy today on the back side of departing low pressure**

Paul Dorian

The storm that impacted the Mid-Atlantic region on Wednesday continues to intensify as it moves northeastward towards the Canadian Maritime provinces. The pressure gradient between the departing low and an incoming high pressure system will tighten today and the result here can be gusts of up to 40 mph or so.   High pressure will then take control for the end of the week and upcoming weekend with a continuation of moderately chilly conditions.

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7:00 AM | **Some snow likely at the onset by late morning or mid-day, but then a changeover to rain**

Paul Dorian

A significant winter storm will impact the Mid-Atlantic region today with snow likely to break out here late this morning or at mid-day. The snow will then mix with sleet for a brief time before precipitation changes to rain later in the afternoon. Accumulations of a coating to an inch or are possible before the transition to rain in some of the far northern and western suburbs. Some of the rain later today and early tonight can fall heavily at times.  On the back side of the storm, NW winds will increase markedly on Thursday with gusts to 50 mph possible, and it’ll be a moderately chilly day with high pressure headed in this direction.

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10:50 AM | ***Some snow is possible at the onset on Wednesday north of PA/MD border, but it turns into a rain event...some of the rain can get heavy...some amazing cold in China, Russia***

Paul Dorian

A significant winter storm is developing today over Texas and this moisture-laden system will push northeastward over the next 24 hours bringing significant snowfall all the way from Texas to the Midwest.  In the Mid-Atlantic region, snow is likely to break out on Wednesday morning in areas to the north of the PA/MD border and there can be some minor accumulations before a changeover to rain later today as milder air surges northward along the coast.

Looking ahead, widespread colder-than-normal air is going to push into the northern and western US early next week and it’ll likely spread into the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US by late next week.  Whether or not this change to colder-than-normal conditions is sustained in the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US after next week will largely depend on the stubborn high pressure ridge aloft over the southwestern Atlantic/Southeast US. Elsewhere, there has been some amazing cold on the other side of the North Pole with the lowest temperature ever recorded in China on Monday and this follows some tremendous cold last week in Russia (Siberia). This frigid air is now spreading to the Korean Peninsula and on the way to Japan where there can also be some all-time low temperatures.

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7:00 AM | ***Next storm brings us snow-to-rain on Wednesday with some accumulations possible before the changeover***

Paul Dorian

The active weather pattern will bring us another storm system to deal with on Wednesday and this one may feature some accumulating snow at the onset.  Low pressure will develop today over Texas and abundant moisture will feed into the system from the Gulf of Mexico.  On Wednesday, this surface low pressure system will push northeastward with its large moisture field advancing to the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic. Another key player in the upcoming mid-week event will be strong high pressure that forms over southeastern Canada. This high will anchor an air mass that will be cold enough for widespread accumulating snow across the Midwest, interior Mid-Atlantic and much of the Northeast US. In the local area, there is likely to be some snow at the onset with a coating to an inch or two possible before any changeover to rain. To the north of here, 2-4 inches of snow can fall tomorrow in the Lehigh Valley and Pocono Mountains, but even those areas will see a changeover to rain.

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10:45 AM | ***Active pattern brings next storm to the Mid-Atlantic region at mid-week…accumulating snow at the onset in parts of the area***

Paul Dorian

As one storm continues to impact the Mid-Atlantic region with lingering rain and snow, the seeds for the next system are rolling through the southwestern states in the form of a vigorous upper-level low. This feature will drift into Texas on Tuesday and help generate surface low pressure and abundant moisture will feed into the system from the Gulf of Mexico.  On Wednesday, this surface low pressure system will push northeastward with its large moisture field advancing to the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic. Another key player in the upcoming mid-week event will be strong high pressure that forms over southeastern Canada. This system will anchor an air mass that will be cold enough for widespread accumulating snow across the Midwest, interior Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US. There is likely to even be some accumulating snow at the onset in portions of the I-95 corridor of the Mid-Atlantic on Wednesday before the precipitation ultimately changes to plain rain.  

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7:00 AM | ***Snowflakes here later today...next storm arrives on Wednesday...should be some accumulating snow initially before a changeover to plain rain***

Paul Dorian

As low pressure pulls away to the northeast of here today, some rain will continue to fall at times and it can mix with or change to snow later in the morning with small grassy accumulations possible. Winds will intensify this afternoon from a northwesterly direction and can gust to 30 mph or later in the day. High pressure returns to the area for a brief time on Tuesday and then the next storm in this active weather pattern arrives on Wednesday. It should be cold enough for some accumulating snow at the onset on Wednesday - perhaps a couple of inches - but an eventual changeover to plain rain is expected. High pressure will return on Thursday following the passage of the mid-week storm system along with the return of strong NW winds.

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7:00 AM | *Active pattern brings us next low pressure system later Sunday into Monday...another at mid-week*

Paul Dorian

High pressure will take control of the weather around here today bringing us some sun, dry conditions, and a gusty wind through Saturday.  The next low pressure system pushes this way later Sunday and it’ll likely produce rain here into the day on Monday.  There is an outside chance that enough cold air will be around to allow for some snow in areas to the north and west of I-95 for part of this event.  Another storm looks likely by the middle of next week in the Mid-Atlantic region bringing us rain and/or snow.

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1:30 PM | ***Stratospheric temperature update…upcoming storm threats for the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US***

Paul Dorian

Stratospheric temperatures have risen noticeably during the past couple of weeks in parts of the polar region in the Northern Hemisphere and indications are there will be changes of location of the polar vortex 10-15 days out.  In addition, stratospheric warming looks like it could become centered right near or over the North Pole by the time we get into the early part of February. A stratospheric warming event such as this being forecasted could very well result in the displacement of cold air masses from the high latitudes into the middle latitudes sometime later in February.   

In the short term, two storm systems are on the way for the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US in the early and middle parts of next week.  As has been the case in January, sufficient cold air for the generation of accumulating snow in the immediate I-95 corridor will be a struggle with both of these upcoming storms.  Having said that, it looks like a close call in terms of at least some snow and/or ice in the I-95 corridor during either of these storms and any small change in the overall pattern can make an important difference. Odds do favor accumulating snow in the interior, higher elevation locations of the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US during each of these storms next week.

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7:00 AM | *Chilly rain today in the Mid-Atlantic region...next system arrives for later Sunday into Monday*

Paul Dorian

Low pressure will push to our northwest today bringing us periods of rain and it’ll drag a cold front through the region by later tonight. High pressure will return on Friday and take control of the weather through the first half of the weekend. The next low pressure system will then push in this direction from our southwest and it should produce a chilly rain around here from later Sunday into Monday. 

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