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Weather forecasting and analysis, space and historic events, climate information
Filtering by Category: PHL
It looks a relatively quiet and dry week in the Mid-Atlantic region that will become increasingly warm. High pressure shifts to a position off the coast over the next day or so and southwesterly winds on its back side will pump in warmer air to the eastern states. Temperatures this afternoon will reach the low-to-mid 60’s and are likely to climb to well up into the 80’s by later in the week.
Read MoreA few showers cannot be ruled out today following the passage of the strong cold frontal system and it turns noticeably cooler than yesterday. In fact, temperatures should bottom out in the low-to-mid 30’s during each of the next few nights with this incoming chilly air mass. High pressure that originated in Canada will take control of the weather as we head into the weekend and there may still be plenty of clouds on Saturday, but more in the way of sunshine for Easter Sunday. Looking ahead, a pattern change will likely result in a warm air surge across the eastern states by the mid and latter parts of next week.
Read MoreIt’ll remain warm today ahead of an approaching cold front and the chance of showers will increase in the afternoon…maybe even a late day/early evening strong-to-severe thunderstorm. The best chance for a strong-to-severe thunderstorm will likely end up being across southern New Jersey and the Delmarva Peninsula. It’ll turn cooler on Friday following the passage of the cold frontal system with a chilly air mass moving into the northeastern states. High pressure with its origins in Canada will take control of the weather and there may be only limited sunshine on Saturday, but plenty on Sunday.
Read MoreA line of thunderstorms extends this morning all the way from Texas to the central Great Lakes and tornado watches as issued by the National Weather Service encompass this entire zone. This severe weather outbreak represents just the latest in a series of recent “clashes” in the atmosphere between cold, dry air to the west charging into warm, humid air to the east. Strong surface low pressure over the northwestern Great Lakes is generating blizzard conditions across the Dakotas and a powerful surface cold front extends from the center all the way south into the northern Gulf region. This same cold front reaches the eastern seaboard later Thursday and while certainly not as widespread of a threat as today, there is the chance for some strong-to-severe thunderstorm activity near the coast. Following the passage of the cold front, a chilly Canadian-borne air mass will push into the Great Lakes/Northeast/Mid-Atlantic for the upcoming Easter weekend.
Read MoreIt’ll stay warm today in the Philly metro region, but there will be some cloudiness and fog through the morning and a late day shower cannot be ruled out. The weather becomes more unsettled on Thursday with the approach of a strong surface cold front edging this way from the Ohio Valley. It’ll remain warm tomorrow with a gusty SW wind and afternoon/evening showers are likely…maybe even a strong-to-severe thunderstorm. The best chance for a strong-to-severe thunderstorm will likely end up being across New Jersey and the Delmarva Peninsula. It’ll turn cooler on Friday following the passage of the cold frontal system with a chilly air mass moving into the northeastern states. High pressure with its origins in Canada will take control of the weather and there should be some sunshine on both weekend days; however, it’ll feel quite cool in the shade and during nighttime hours.
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One of the key ingredients in this upcoming severe weather outbreak will be the intensification of an upper-level jet (300 mb) which will combine with an low-level jet (850 mb) to generate deep-layer wind shear in the atmosphere. Map courtesy ECMWF, Pivotal Weather
Overview
There have been back-to-back weeks with severe weather outbreaks in the US and another one is on the way. Severe weather including the threat for tornadoes is likely from later today into the overnight hours across the Mississippi Valley and then the risk shifts to the Ohio Valley on Wednesday. One of the key ingredients for the severe weather outbreak will be a strong surface cold front and it reaches the east coast later Thursday and there can be strong-to-severe storms in that region as well. Other ingredients include multiple jet streaks in the atmosphere which will enhance the chance for rotation and tornadic activity. In the cold sector of the storm, significant snow is going to fall during the next couple of days from the Rockies to the Dakotas/northern Minnesota. Looking ahead, this may be the end of the severe weather outbreaks for awhile warm air may finally flood the central and eastern states later next week.
One of the key ingredients in this upcoming severe weather outbreak will be the intensification of a low-level jet (850 mb) which will combine with an upper-level jet (300 mb) to generate deep-layer wind shear in the atmosphere. Map courtesy ECMWF, Pivotal Weather
Details
There is a risk of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes from later today into the overnight hours across the Mississippi Valley region from Iowa/Illinois to the north and eastern Texas/Louisiana in the south. In much the same manner as with recent severe weather outbreaks, a vigorous upper-level trough will help to spawn cyclogenesis in the middle of the nation at the same time high-level ridging intensifies over the eastern states. An intensifying upper-level jet streak (southwesterly) will push into the Great Plains and then the Mississippi Valley region and a low-level jet (southerly) will become involved as well. The combination of these two jet streaks will lead to deep-layer wind shear in the warm sector of the surface low pressure system potentially leading to supercells capable of producing tornadoes. In addition, torrential rain and hail will be on the table with this severe weather outbreak.
Severe weather is a threat from later today into the overnight hours across much of the Mississippi Valley region and this risk will shift to the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes/Midwest on Wednesday. Map courtesy NOAA/Storm Prediction Center
By tomorrow, the threat of severe weather will shift slightly to the east with thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes extending from the Great Lakes to the Ohio Valley and southwestward back into the Lower Mississippi Valley. As the cold front pushes to the east on Wednesday, the cold and dry air mass on its backside will clash with warm and humid air all the way up into the Great Lakes region from the Gulf of Mexico. This same front will push towards the eastern seaboard on Thursday and there can be strong-to-severe thunderstorms in the I-95 corridor later in the day or early Thursday night.
The cold front clears the east coast by Friday and sets the stage for quieter weather in the northeastern states on Friday and through the upcoming Easter weekend. It will turn cooler on Friday with a chilly air mass moving into the Northeast US/Mid-Atlantic anchored by high pressure with its origins in Canada. There should be plenty of sunshine on both days; however, it’ll feel quite cool in the shade or during the nights. Looking ahead, there are signs for a widespread warm air surge later next week into the central and eastern US - eliminating that “battleground” region in the middle of the country - and this could very well make this upcoming severe weather outbreak the last one in an extended period of time.
There will be significant accumulating snow over the next couple of days in the cold sector of this storm from the Rockies to the Dakotas/northern Minnesota. Map courtesy ECMWF, Pivotal Weather
One final note, this unfolding weather pattern will not only produce numerous tornadoes from later today into Wednesday in the latest in a series of severe weather outbreaks, it is likely to also result in significant accumulating snow. Specifically, the region from the Rockies to the Dakotas/northern Minnesota will see some substantial snowfall during the next 72 hours or so with as much as 1-2 feet in some locations. Ultimately, the accumulating snow will reach the northern part of New England with Maine, for example, likely to receive several inches by late in the week.
Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Arcfield
arcfieldweather.com
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Warmer air on the south side of a warm front will dominate the scene here today and on Wednesday as well and then a cold front will push towards the region from the Ohio Valley. Ahead of the front, the chance of showers will rise later tomorrow and tomorrow night and the passage of the system on Thursday may be accompanied by a strong to potentially severe thunderstorm. It’ll turn cooler on Friday following the passage of the frontal system with a chilly air mass moving into the northeastern states. High pressure with its origins in Canada will take control of the weather for the weekend and there should be some sunshine on both days; however, it’ll feel quite cool in the shade or during the nights.
Read MoreThere have been back-to-back weeks with severe weather outbreaks in the US and it looks like another one is on the way from later tomorrow into Wednesday. The areas of concern include the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys and the ingredients that will come together to destabilize the atmosphere include jet streaks at multiple layers, cold, dry air mass charging to the south and east, and warm, humid air flowing northward from the Gulf of Mexico. Tornadoes are running at above-normal levels across the nation so far this season thanks in large part to the recent two outbreaks and, unfortunately, many more are likely from later tomorrow into Wednesday. Meanwhile, in the cold sector of the storm system, the air will be cold enough for accumulating snow all the way from the Rockies to the Dakotas and, in some spots, this could amount to as much as 1-2 feet.
Read MoreHigh pressure will stay in control of the weather around here today and it’ll become breezy and much milder after a frosty start to the new work week. Warmer air on the south side of a warm front will dominate the scene on Tuesday and Wednesday and then a cold front arrives on Thursday. It’ll turn somewhat cooler on Friday following the frontal passage and - at this vantage point - it appears high pressure may be in control around here for the upcoming Easter weekend.
Read MoreStrong low pressure over the eastern Great Lakes this morning continues to wreak havoc across the nation. Last night, tornadoes broke out from the Mississippi Valley to the Ohio Valley and, in the cold sector of the storm, accumulating snow fell across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Snow continues today across the Great Lakes region this morning and powerful potentially damaging winds have reached the Mid-Atlantic region to along with rain, scattered strong thunderstorms, and very mild conditions. A dry slot should result in some sunshine this afternoon in the I-95 corridor which will only boost chances for late day/evening severe weather with damaging wind gusts, hail and even isolated tornadoes on the table.
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