February is now a few days old, and it looks like it will be a very active month with plenty of cold air around and it is likely to feature a polar vortex “split” and high-latitude blocking. There should be plenty of opportunities for snow, ice and rain in the Mid-Atlantic region as we progress through the month with just the next week or so likely to feature as many as three precipitation events. The first opportunity comes at mid-week, and it may turn out to be the first significant icing event in quite awhile for much of the Mid-Atlantic region with possible snow on the front end and plain rain on the back end. A similar scenario may take place this weekend with frozen precipitation possible on the front-end of the next storm system and plain rain on the back end. A third storm may threaten by the middle of next week and this one should have more cold air to work with raising the chance of accumulating snow in the Mid-Atlantic region.
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A warm front lifted through the region last night and today will become milder with afternoon temperatures likely reaching into the lower 50’s for highs. A colder air mass pushes in by mid-week and it’ll be supported by a strong high pressure system situated over New England. This is likely to set the stage for some frozen precipitation around here from late Wednesday into early Thursday including a period of sleet and freezing rain. On Thursday, temperatures should climb to warm enough levels for plain rain in most of the Mid-Atlantic region. Looking ahead, there may be a similar scenario to deal with this weekend with the possibility of some frozen precipitation later Saturday/Saturday night and then likely plain rain on Super Bowl Sunday. Yet another system could threaten us with snow by the middle of next week as the overall pattern looks very active for the month of February.
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February is now underway and it looks like it will be a very active month with plenty of cold air around and is likely to feature a stratospheric polar vortex split that can impact US temperatures all the way into March. There should be plenty of opportunities for snow, ice and rain in the Mid-Atlantic region and Northeast US as we progress through the new month with just the next week or so likely to feature as many as three precipitation events. Another player on the field that will have to be monitored this month will be the occasional appearance of the Southeast US high pressure ridge – often seen during La Nina winters – and this enhances the possibility of quite warm conditions across the southern states and also chances for severe weather.
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The month of January has been a dry one in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor, but it will end on a wet note with rainfall today; primarily, focused on the PM hours. Moderately cold conditions will follow for the weekend likely with clouds giving way to sun on Saturday and sun giving way to clouds on Sunday. There can be some snow in the area on Sunday night from a low pressure system passing by to our north. A warm front should lift northward across the area by early Monday paving the way for milder conditions to start the new work week and then a cold front arrives by early Tuesday of next week.
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February can feature quite active weather across the nation with increasingly warm and humid air down across the southern states and some very cold Arctic air remaining up to the north. In fact, this kind of clash in the atmosphere appears to be setting up for next week which may lead to a storm system that features a wide range of precipitation types at mid-week from rain/thunderstorms in its warm sector to snow and ice in the cold sector. Eventually, it appears the cold air will “win” this battle and overspread the eastern half of the nation in about ten days or so. By the way, Sunday is Groundhog Day and - if I were Phil - I might be apt to see my shadow as it looks like there is plenty of cold air left in the tank for 6 more weeks of winter. Meanwhile, in the short-term, the month of January will end on a wet note in the Mid-Atlantic region with primarily a rain event from late tonight through Friday; however, accumulating snow is likely from interior New York State to New England where at least a few inches are on the table.
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It’ll be colder today in the Philly metro region on the back side of a frontal passage and sun will give way to late day clouds as low pressure organizes over the Upper Midwest. A warm front will extend well to the east of the low pressure system and it’ll push in our direction later tonight spreading rain into the area that will last through much of the day on Friday. Rain has been a rare commodity in the Mid-Atlantic region during the month of January which has been much drier-than-normal in the local area with a deficit of 2.43 inches. At the onset of the rainfall late tonight, it may be just cold enough for the rain to freeze on some surfaces; especially, across the far northern and western suburbs. Temperatures during the day on Friday will climb to well above freezing levels (into the upper 40’s) assuring “plain” rain as we close out the work week, and then it turns moderately cold again to begin the weekend.
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A strong cold front will approach from the northwest today – the second such system in two days – and winds will pick up in intensity possibly gusting to 50 mph or so. There is the chance for a couple of afternoon rain showers as the cold front comes through the area and it’ll turn milder with afternoon highs near 50 degrees. However, it turns colder on Thursday and clouds will increase later in the day as low pressure strengthens over the Upper Midwest. A warm front will extend well to the east of the low pressure system and it can spread rain into the area for late Thursday night and Friday. At the onset of the precipitation, it may be just cold enough for a brief time for the rain to freeze on some surfaces across the northern and western suburbs. Temperatures during the day on Friday will climb to well above freezing levels (into the upper 40’s) assuring “plain” rain as we close out the work week.
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Winds will be rather strong for much of today in the Mid-Atlantic region with gusts up to 35 mph or so; however, a more intense and longer-lasting wind event is in store for late tonight and Wednesday associated with the next strong cold frontal system. That next cold front will be trailing a “clipper” low pressure system that passes by to the north on Wednesday, and it can help to generate 50 mph wind gusts from late tonight into late Wednesday. In terms of precipitation, there can be some snow shower/snow squall activity on Wednesday afternoon as this next cold front arrives and, as with today’s frontal system, most of the activity will be limited to the northern Mid-Atlantic.
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A couple of strong cold frontal systems dropping southeastward from Canada will impact the northeastern states both today and on Wednesday. The first of these fronts can cause strong winds around here today and there can be some snow shower activity...perhaps even a heavier snow squall. The second front can produce more strong winds here on Wednesday with gusts past 45 mph and some rain or snow shower activity as well as it passes through the region. Low pressure to our west will try to push a warm front through the area later this week and there can be some rain from late Thursday into Friday.
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After a cold, dry and quiet weekend, high pressure will remain in control as we start the new work week and westerly winds will strengthen as the pressure gradient tightens between low pressure to the north and high pressure building in from the southwest. A couple of strong cold frontal systems dropping southeastward from Canada will impact the northeastern states on both Tuesday and Wednesday. The first of these fronts can cause strong winds on Tuesday and some snow shower activity; primarily, focused on the morning hours…there can even be a heavier snow squall. The second front can produce more strong winds at mid-week and some rain or snow shower activity as well as it passes through the region. At the end of the work week, low pressure to our west will try to push a warm front through the area and there can be a mixed bag of precipitation around here from later Friday into Saturday to possibly include rain, ice and snow.
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