All the ingredients are coming together for rapid intensification today of low pressure as it pulls out of Colorado and moves into western Kansas. In fact, the central barometric pressure of this intensifying low pressure system could bottom out near 28.67 inches later today and some spots may very well reach record low levels; especially, across Colorado and Kansas. The combination of a strong “negatively-tilted” wave of energy in the upper atmosphere, sharp low-level temperature gradient, and powerful jet streaks in the atmosphere will help generate this powerhouse storm system that will have wide ranging impacts from blizzard conditions to its north and west to extreme winds and potential severe thunderstorms on its south and east side.
Wind gusts are likely to surpass hurricane-force levels later today in a wide part of the nation from New Mexico/Texas to southern Nebraska and perhaps even to 90+ mph in places like Colorado and Kansas. These extreme wind gusts are unfortunately likely to result in widespread power outages, downed or damaged trees and very difficult travel conditions. Blizzard warnings have been posted all the way from Colorado to Minnesota/North Dakota for the expected heavy snowfall and extremely strong winds.
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Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley: A classic pattern for severe weather in March is setting up for Saturday in the Mississippi Valley and potentially the Ohio Valley with cold, Arctic air to the north and west and warm, humid air to the south and east. In this “battle zone” region, severe thunderstorms are likely to break out on Saturday across portions of Tennessee, Mississippi and Alabama and this threat includes large hail and perhaps a few tornadoes. There is also a chance this severe weather threat on Saturday extends as far north as the Ohio Valley region including southern Illinois, southern Indiana and western Kentucky. Strong low pressure will head northeast on Saturday towards the Great Lakes and strong upper-level energy will support the outbreak of severe weather in the Mississippi Valley and perhaps as far north as the Ohio Valley.
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Mid-Atlantic: A powerful storm over southeastern Canada is combining with strong high pressure over the Upper Midwest to create a tight pressure gradient field and this is leading to high winds gusts across the Mid-Atlantic. Winds can gust into the 50-60 mph range today, but will begin to diminish later tonight as high pressure edges closer to the region. The air mass is quite chilly as we begin the new work week and it’ll feel much colder with the strong winds. After a calmer and sunny day on Tuesday, a couple of weak disturbances could throw some clouds our way at mid-week and perhaps a few snow or rain showers.
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Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US/Midwest: A storm that has already been a news making event in the Southwest US for its unusual snowfall will undergo explosive intensification this weekend and continue to make news as it’ll have major ramifications across much of the rest of the nation. Low pressure is heading northeastward today from the southern Plains and towards the Great Lakes and it will generate blizzard conditions all along the way. This system has the potential to strengthen over a 36-hour period from around 999 millibars this morning to near 971 millibars by late Sunday and it can result in monthly record low pressure readings in parts of the Great Lakes region.
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Mid-Atlantic/Midwest/Northeast US: A storm that has already been a news making event in the Southwest US for its unusual snowfall will undergo explosive intensification this weekend and continue to make news as it’ll have major ramifications across much of the rest of the nation. Low pressure will pull out of the Southwest US early Saturday and begin to rapidly intensify as it starts a push to the northeast and towards the Great Lakes region where it will become an all-out blizzard. This system has the potential to strengthen over a 36-hour period from around 995 millibars (29.38 inches) early Saturday morning to near 973 millibars (28.73 inches) by late Sunday and it can ultimately result in monthly record low pressure readings in the Great Lakes region.
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Mid-Atlantic: A major winter storm will impact the Mid-Atlantic region on Wednesday and Wednesday night with significant accumulating snow on the front end in many areas before a changeover to ice and rain. An initial low pressure system will head towards the western Great Lakes on Wednesday and a secondary low pressure will form near the Mid-Atlantic coastline. Another key player will be strong cold high pressure that will be situated to our north at the beginning of this mid-week event and it will anchor cold, dense low-level air that will be reluctant to give up its ground. Snow should break out in the early morning hours on Wednesday in the DC metro region, around mid morning in Philly, and then during the mid-day or early afternoon hours in NYC.
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Midwest (Auburn Hills, MI): A major ice event is in the offing for Auburn Hills, MI which could result in a dangerous Wednesday morning commute. High pressure over central Canada is drifting to the east today and is a source of low-level cold air which will play a major role in potential icing late tonight and early Wednesday as moisture arrives in the region. A southern stream of energy will ride along a temperature boundary zone on Wednesday and stay just south of the Michigan state line allowing for the low-level cold air to stand its ground. Warm and moist air from the south will ride up and over the entrenched cold air mass at the surface and the bulk of the precipitation from this system will fall as freezing rain in a 6-hour period from around 3AM to 9AM.
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