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Blog

Weather forecasting and analysis, space and historic events, climate information

7:00 AM | **Hot pattern to continue...an increased chance later today/early tonight for scattered showers and storms...even better chance for some rain early next week**

Paul Dorian

The main weather story continues to be the high heat across the region and wildfire smoke and haze are continuing factors as well. Temperatures will peak later today in the mid-to-upper 90’s and similar highs are likely right through the weekend and into the early part of next week. Rain chances today will increase some during the late afternoon and early evening hours and reduce on Saturday only to rise again on Sunday and Monday when locally heavy rain will be back on the table.

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6:15 AM | ***Good chance of showers and thunderstorms later today and tonight...some of the storms can be strong-to-severe with very heavy rainfall...an unsettled weekend as well***

Paul Dorian

An intensifying upper-level trough of low pressure will slide towards the Mid-Atlantic region from later today into tonight and it’ll actually play a role in the weather around here right through the upcoming weekend. Specifically, this system will enhance upward motion in the area raising the chance of showers and thunderstorms - possibly strong-to-severe - and that threat of rain will continue on each weekend day. In addition, a southwesterly flow of air out ahead of this incoming trough will push very moist air into the area suggesting any shower or thunderstorm that does form during the next few days can produce some very heavy rainfall amounts in an impacted location.

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6:15 AM | ***Good chance of showers and thunderstorms later today and tonight...some of the storms can be strong-to-severe...an unsettled weekend as well***

Paul Dorian

An intensifying upper-level trough of low pressure will slide towards the Mid-Atlantic region from later today into tonight and it’ll actually play a role in the weather around here right through the upcoming weekend. Specifically, this system will enhance upward motion in the area raising the chance of showers and thunderstorms - possibly strong-to-severe - and that threat of rain will continue on each weekend day. In addition, a southwesterly flow of air out ahead of this incoming trough will push very moist air into the area suggesting any shower or thunderstorm that does form during the next few days can produce some very heavy rainfall amounts in an impacted location.

Read More

6:15 AM | ***Good chance of showers and thunderstorms later today and tonight...some of the storms can be strong-to-severe with heavy rainfall...an unsettled weekend as well***

Paul Dorian

An intensifying upper-level trough of low pressure will slide towards the Mid-Atlantic region from later today into tonight and it’ll actually play a role in the weather around here right through the upcoming weekend. Specifically, this system will enhance upward motion in the area raising the chance of showers and thunderstorms - possibly strong-to-severe - and that threat of rain will continue on each weekend day. In addition, a southwesterly flow of air out ahead of this incoming trough will push very moist air into the area suggesting any shower or thunderstorm that does form during the next few days can produce some very heavy rainfall amounts in an impacted location.

Read More

8:00 AM (Friday) | ***Tropical threat for the eastern Gulf of Mexico by later this weekend...system may slow down...La Nina revisited...a recent sharp drop in temperatures across central Pacific***

Paul Dorian

The Atlantic Basin tropical scene has been largely quiet during the past few weeks after the dissipation of Hurricane Beryl which reached category 5 status over the Caribbean Sea and then ultimately made landfall in Texas as a category 1 storm. There is now a strong tropical wave that is nearing Cuba and it may spill out over the eastern Gulf of Mexico by later this weekend as an intensifying storm. There are signs that at some point early next week the northward progression of this system may be stymied, and a stalling or even a “looping” storm track is on the table. This possibility could lead to some very heavy rainfall amounts in certain locations…a prospect to monitor closely next few days. In fact, we may be dealing with this tropical storm system as late as at the end of next week or weekend somewhere up along the eastern seaboard.

One of the contributing factors to what should be an active next couple of months in the tropical Atlantic Ocean is the strengthening of La Nina across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Sea surface temperatures in that part of the world’s largest ocean have dropped quite sharply during the past week or so suggesting La Nina may indeed be an important (and favorable) factor for development and intensification of tropical storm systems in the Atlantic Basin during the second half of the tropical season.

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7:00 AM | *Hot for the next couple of days with afternoon highs up in the 90's...watching the tropics*

Paul Dorian

An upper-level ridge builds into the Mid-Atlantic region for the next couple of days and this will lead to hotter conditions with afternoon highs well up in the 90’s in most spots along the I-95 corridor. A few shortwaves will keep it unsettled around here right through the upcoming weekend with rounds of showers and thunderstorms; primarily, focused on the afternoon and evening hours. Any thunderstorm that forms during the next few days can produce heavy rainfall amounts given the high amounts of available moisture and the likely slow-moving nature of the storm cells. Elsewhere, the tropical scene is alive and well in the Atlantic Basin as we flip the calendar to August and there could be an intensifying tropical system to deal with over the eastern Gulf of Mexico by early next week.

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7:00 AM | *Hot for the next couple of days with afternoon highs well up in the 90's...watching the tropics*

Paul Dorian

An upper-level ridge builds into the Mid-Atlantic region for the next couple of days and this will lead to hotter conditions with afternoon highs well up in the 90’s in most spots along the I-95 corridor. A few shortwaves will keep it unsettled around here right through the upcoming weekend with rounds of showers and thunderstorms; primarily, focused on the afternoon and evening hours. Any thunderstorm that forms during the next few days can produce heavy rainfall amounts given the high amounts of available moisture and the likely slow-moving nature of the storm cells. Elsewhere, the tropical scene is alive and well in the Atlantic Basin as we flip the calendar to August and there could be an intensifying tropical system to deal with over the eastern Gulf of Mexico by early next week.

Read More

7:00 AM | **Hot weather pattern continues into next week...elevated wildfire risk continues**

Paul Dorian

The main weather story continues to be the high heat across the region and wildfire smoke and haze are on-going factors as well. Temperatures will peak later today in the mid-to-upper 90’s and similar highs are likely right through the weekend and into the early part of next week. Rain chances today will be minimal, but they should be higher on Friday and again early next week when locally heavy rain will be back on the table.

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