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Blog

Weather forecasting and analysis, space and historic events, climate information

7:00 AM | ***All eyes on the Caribbean Sea/Gulf of Mexico...hurricane threat for Florida's Gulf coast by Thursday...potentially as a "major"***

Paul Dorian

A strong tropical wave over the northwestern Caribbean Sea is likely to threaten Florida’s Gulf coast as a hurricane on Thursday...potentially as a “major” hurricane of category 3 classification or higher. A significant change to the overall weather pattern in the Atlantic Basin is now underway and is much more conducive to the formation and intensification of tropical systems. This change is the result of a re-positioning of a tropical disturbance known as the Madden-Julian Oscillation and it is leading to enhanced upward motion over the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico. This more favorable pattern for tropical cyclone activity will likely last well into the month of October.

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7:00 AM | *Cool, unsettled next few days..."major" hurricane threat for Florida's Gulf coast with a possible late Thursday landfall*

Paul Dorian

The next few days will remain on the cool side around here as high pressure centered over southeastern Canada continues to have an influence on the weather in the Mid-Atlantic region. These next few days will also remain unsettled with multiple frontal systems to deal with and the threat of showers from time-to-time. Elsewhere, a tropical system now over the Caribbean Sea will intensify as it moves northward in coming days over the very warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico. This system should make landfall later in the day on Thursday - perhaps as a “major” hurricane of category 3 status or higher - likely somewhere along Florida’s Gulf coast (Big Bend region).

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7:00 AM | *Cool, unsettled next few days..."major" hurricane threat for Florida's Gulf coast with a possible late Thursday landfall*

Paul Dorian

The next few days will remain on the cool side around here as high pressure centered over southeastern Canada continues to have an influence on the weather in the Mid-Atlantic region. These next few days will also remain unsettled with multiple frontal systems to deal with and the threat of showers from time-to-time. Elsewhere, a tropical system now over the Caribbean Sea will intensify as it moves northward in coming days over the very warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico. This system should make landfall later in the day on Thursday - perhaps as a “major” hurricane of category 3 status or higher - likely somewhere along Florida’s Gulf coast (Big Bend region).

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12:15 PM | ****Hurricane threat for Florida’s Gulf coast later Thursday and it can become a “major”...changing weather pattern results in enhanced upward motion...the "Fujiwhara effect"****

Paul Dorian

A strong tropical wave has developed over the northwestern Caribbean Sea during the past day or so and it is likely to threaten Florida’s Gulf coast as a hurricane later in the week...potentially a “major” hurricane of category 3 classification or higher. A significant change to the overall large-scale weather pattern in the Atlantic Basin is now underway and it is much more conducive to the formation and intensification of tropical systems. This change is the result of a re-positioning of a tropical disturbance known as the “Madden-Julian Oscillation” and it is leading to enhanced upward motion over the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico. This more favorable weather pattern for tropical cyclone activity will likely last well into the month of October. In the near-term, all residents from New Orleans to Tampa should continue to monitor this current threat closely over the next couple of days.

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6:15 AM | *A cool week and unsettled with the threat of showers from time-to-time...all eyes this week on the Caribbean Sea/Gulf of Mexico*

Paul Dorian

The next few days will be on the cool side as high pressure centered over southeastern Canada extends into the Mid-Atlantic region. The week will be unsettled with multiple frontal systems to deal with and the threat of showers from time-to-time. Elsewhere, all eyes on the tropics this week as as tropical system will pull out of the northwestern Caribbean Sea and head northward over the Gulf of Mexico likely threatening the west coast of Florida as a hurricane by around Thursday morning.

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6:15 AM | *A cool week and unsettled with the threat of showers from time-to-time...all eyes this week on the Caribbean Sea/Gulf of Mexico*

Paul Dorian

The next few days will be on the cool side as high pressure centered over southeastern Canada extends into the Mid-Atlantic region. The week will be unsettled with multiple frontal systems to deal with and the threat of showers from time-to-time. Elsewhere, all eyes on the tropics this week as as tropical system will pull out of the northwestern Caribbean Sea and head northward over the Gulf of Mexico likely threatening the west coast of Florida as a hurricane by around Thursday morning.

Read More

6:15 AM | *A cool week and unsettled with the threat of showers from time-to-time...all eyes this week on the Caribbean Sea/Gulf of Mexico*

Paul Dorian

The next few days will be on the cool side as high pressure centered over southeastern Canada extends into the Mid-Atlantic region. The week will be unsettled with multiple frontal systems to deal with and the threat of showers from time-to-time. Elsewhere, all eyes on the tropics this week as as tropical system will pull out of the northwestern Caribbean Sea and head northward over the Gulf of Mexico likely threatening the west coast of Florida as a hurricane by around Thursday morning.

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7:15 AM | *The Great New England Hurricane of 1938*

Paul Dorian

On September 21, 1938, one of the most destructive and powerful hurricanes in recorded history struck Long Island and Southern New England. It was the first major hurricane to strike New England since the year 1869.  The storm developed near the Cape Verde Islands on September 9, tracking across the Atlantic and up the Eastern Seaboard. The storm hit Long Island and Southern Connecticut on September 21, moving at a forward speed of 47 mph! Today marks the 86th anniversary of storm known as "The Great New England Hurricane of 1938" as well as "The Long Island Express" and the "Yankee Clipper". With no warning, the powerful category 3 hurricane (previously a category 5) slammed into Long Island and southern New England causing approximately 682 deaths and massive devastation to coastal cities and became the most destructive storm to strike the region in the 20th century. Little media attention was given to the powerful hurricane while it was out at sea as Europe was on the brink of war and the overriding story of the time. There was no advanced meteorological technology such as radar or satellite imagery to warn of the storm’s approach.

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