Tropical Storm Helene will intensify rapidly as it moves north-to-northeast during the next 24 hours over the very warm waters of the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This system should make landfall early tomorrow night in the “Big Bend” region of Florida’s Gulf coast….likely as a “major” category 3 classification and even attainment of “category 4” is on the table. Outer bands of showers and thunderstorms associated with Helene will spread northward into the region on Thursday; especially, in areas to the east of I-65. The center of the hurricane is likely to pass by to our east on Thursday night and Friday moving northward through the state of Georgia and then into South Carolina.
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It stays on the cool side of normal today as high pressure centered over southeastern Canada continues to influence the weather in the Mid-Atlantic region. Low pressure will pass by to our north during the next 24 hours and it’ll help to advance a warm front into our area. As a result, there will be occasional showers today, tonight and on Thursday and a thunderstorm or two can be mixed into the picture.
Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Helene continues to intensify early today as it moves towards the southern Gulf of Mexico. It’ll clip the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula later today and likely reach category 1 hurricane status. As it continues to move over the very warm waters of the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday night and Thursday, it should climb to “major” hurricane status of at least category 3 classification. Landfall as a “major” hurricane is likely by late Thursday along Florida’s “Big Bend” Gulf coastal region and “Helene” will then continue on a north-northeast track resulting in with big impacts to the state of Georgia as well as Florida.
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A strong tropical wave continues to churn over the warm waters of the western Caribbean Sea and it is likely to threaten Florida’s Gulf coast as a “major” hurricane by late Thursday. This system should attain named tropical storm status shortly (minimum winds of 39 mph) and then it should take a track in between the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico and the western tip of Cuba as it heads to the southern Gulf of Mexico. Intensification will then continue as it heads on a general northward track over the warm waters of the eastern Gulf and it could climb to “major” hurricane classification (i.e., category 3 or higher) before a likely landfall late Thursday somewhere near Florida’s “Big Bend” Gulf coast region.
After landfall, the remnants of the hurricane will push in a general northward direction through Georgia and South Carolina producing powerful wind gusts and significant rainfall along the way. At this point, the tropical system will become increasingly influenced by very strong “blocking” high pressure to the north and an upper-level trough of low pressure dropping southeastward into the south-central states. In fact, the tropical low may “rotate around” this incoming upper-level trough of low pressure for a brief time in a pattern known to meteorologists as the “Fujiwhara effect” before it ultimately gets absorbed by the upper-level low..
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The next few days will remain on the cool side around here as high pressure centered over southeastern Canada continues to have an influence on the weather in the Mid-Atlantic region. These next few days will also remain unsettled with multiple frontal systems to deal with and the threat of showers from time-to-time. Elsewhere, a tropical system now over the Caribbean Sea will intensify as it moves northward in coming days over the very warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico. This system should make landfall later in the day on Thursday - perhaps as a “major” hurricane of category 3 status or higher - likely somewhere along Florida’s Gulf coast (Big Bend region).
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A strong tropical wave over the northwestern Caribbean Sea is likely to threaten Florida’s Gulf coast as a hurricane on Thursday...potentially as a “major” hurricane of category 3 classification or higher. A significant change to the overall weather pattern in the Atlantic Basin is now underway and is much more conducive to the formation and intensification of tropical systems. This change is the result of a re-positioning of a tropical disturbance known as the Madden-Julian Oscillation and it is leading to enhanced upward motion over the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico. This more favorable pattern for tropical cyclone activity will likely last well into the month of October.
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The next few days will remain on the cool side around here as high pressure centered over southeastern Canada continues to have an influence on the weather in the Mid-Atlantic region. These next few days will also remain unsettled with multiple frontal systems to deal with and the threat of showers from time-to-time. Elsewhere, a tropical system now over the Caribbean Sea will intensify as it moves northward in coming days over the very warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico. This system should make landfall later in the day on Thursday - perhaps as a “major” hurricane of category 3 status or higher - likely somewhere along Florida’s Gulf coast (Big Bend region).
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The next few days will remain on the cool side around here as high pressure centered over southeastern Canada continues to have an influence on the weather in the Mid-Atlantic region. These next few days will also remain unsettled with multiple frontal systems to deal with and the threat of showers from time-to-time. Elsewhere, a tropical system now over the Caribbean Sea will intensify as it moves northward in coming days over the very warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico. This system should make landfall later in the day on Thursday - perhaps as a “major” hurricane of category 3 status or higher - likely somewhere along Florida’s Gulf coast (Big Bend region).
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Much of the remainder of the week will be warm and dry across Colorado with high pressure in control over much of the Rocky Mountain States. Temperatures will peak later today in the upper 70’s and then climb to the 80’s for the second half of the week.
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A strong tropical wave has developed over the northwestern Caribbean Sea during the past day or so and it is likely to threaten Florida’s Gulf coast as a hurricane later in the week...potentially a “major” hurricane of category 3 classification or higher. A significant change to the overall large-scale weather pattern in the Atlantic Basin is now underway and it is much more conducive to the formation and intensification of tropical systems. This change is the result of a re-positioning of a tropical disturbance known as the “Madden-Julian Oscillation” and it is leading to enhanced upward motion over the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico. This more favorable weather pattern for tropical cyclone activity will likely last well into the month of October. In the near-term, all residents from New Orleans to Tampa should continue to monitor this current threat closely over the next couple of days.
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All eyes on the tropical scene this week as a tropical storm is very likely to pull out of the Caribbean Sea and move over the Gulf of Mexico. It is too early to say the direction this system will take, but any potential impact here would be during the second half of the week so stay tuned.
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