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Blog

Weather forecasting and analysis, space and historic events, climate information

7:00 AM | **Very warm today with possible record breaking high temperatures in some spots...much cooler by late tonight following cold frontal passage**

Paul Dorian

Today will be another very warm day across Colorado with record highs on the table in some spots. A cold front passes through the area tonight and late night temperatures will become noticeably cooler. The rest of the week looks to be dry with comfortable temperatures and with the likely rain-free conditions, the chance for wildfires will be on the increase.

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7:00 AM | *A quiet and warm week in store for the Tennessee Valley...another tropical threat looms for the Gulf of Mexico*

Paul Dorian

The remnants of tropical storm Helene will continue to drift away early this week and we’re setting up for a quiet and warm week with minimal chances for shower activity. There are signs for another tropical storm system to make it into the Gulf of Mexico this weekend or early next week as the at least the first part of October will continue to feature much in the way of tropical activity in the Atlantic Basin.

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7:00 AM | *Mid-week frontal passage to finally kick out moist, maritime air mass that has been stuck in the Mid-Atlantic region*

Paul Dorian

The first half of the week remains somewhat unsettled with an upper-level trough hanging nearby, a continuation of moist low-level onshore flow, and a daily threat of showers. The pattern will change at mid-week with the passage of a cool frontal system that will kick the moist, maritime air mass out of here and sunshine should rule later in the week. Temperatures in general will remain on the cool side limited by an abundance of clouds and persistent onshore flow during the next few days and will return to comfortably warm levels later in the week with the return of abundant sunshine.

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7:00 AM | *Mid-week frontal passage to finally kick out moist, maritime air mass that has been stuck in the Mid-Atlantic region*

Paul Dorian

The first half of the week remains somewhat unsettled with an upper-level trough hanging nearby, a continuation of moist low-level onshore flow, and a daily threat of showers. The pattern will change at mid-week with the passage of a cool frontal system that will kick the moist, maritime air mass out of here and sunshine should rule later in the week. Temperatures in general will remain on the cool side limited by an abundance of clouds and persistent onshore flow during the next few days and will return to comfortably warm levels later in the week with the return of abundant sunshine.

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6:15 AM | **The combination of tropical moisture, persistent onshore flow, and an upper-level low will result in a daily threat of showers right through the first half of next week**

Paul Dorian

Hurricane Helen came ashore last night near Perry, Florida as a category 4 “major” hurricane and is now pushing through Georgia as a downgraded “tropical storm”. While the remnants of Hurricane Helene will never make it this far north, some of its tropical moisture field will combine with an upper-level low to produce occasional showers around here during the next few days and some of the rain can be heavy at times. In fact, the upper-level low will be such a slow-mover that the unsettled weather conditions in the Mid-Atlantic region will continue all the way through the first half of next week with the threat of showers on each day.

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6:15 AM | ***Hurricane Helene came ashore last night near Perry, Florida as a category 4 "major" storm...impacts Georgia and Alabama into the weekend***

Paul Dorian

Hurricane Helene pushed ashore last night near Perry, Florida as a category 4 “major” hurricane and is now pushing through Georgia as a downgraded “tropical storm”. It will bring strong winds and heavy rain to Georgia and also to portions of Alabama on Friday and Friday night. The remnants of the hurricane will push northward through much of the day and then will be forced to turn north and west and towards the Middle Mississippi Valley region due to very strong “blocking” high pressure to the north over Canada. Excessive rainfall amounts can spread throughout much of the southern Appalachians as upsloping winds will enhance upward motion and likely result in some tremendous amounts of rainfall.

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6:15 AM | **The combination of tropical moisture, persistent onshore flow, and an upper-level low will result in a daily threat of showers right through the first half of next week**

Paul Dorian

Hurricane Helen came ashore last night near Perry, Florida as a category 4 “major” hurricane and is now pushing through Georgia as a downgraded “tropical storm”. While the remnants of Hurricane Helene will never make it this far north, some of its tropical moisture field will combine with an upper-level low to produce occasional showers around here during the next few days and some of the rain can be heavy at times. In fact, the upper-level low will be such a slow-mover that the unsettled weather conditions in the Mid-Atlantic region will continue all the way through the first half of next week with the threat of showers on each day.

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6:15 AM | **The combination of tropical moisture, persistent onshore flow, and an upper-level low will result in a daily threat of showers right through the first half of next week**

Paul Dorian

Hurricane Helen came ashore last night near Perry, Florida as a category 4 “major” hurricane and is now pushing through Georgia as a downgraded “tropical storm”. While the remnants of Hurricane Helene will never make it this far north, some of its tropical moisture field will combine with an upper-level low to produce occasional showers around here during the next few days and some of the rain can be heavy at times. In fact, the upper-level low will be such a slow-mover that the unsettled weather conditions in the Mid-Atlantic region will continue all the way through the first half of next week with the threat of showers on each day.

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2:45 PM | ****Hurricane Helene headed for Florida’s Gulf coast as a "major"...landfall early tonight...Georgia to be hit hard...southern Appalachians especially vulnerable to severe flooding****

Paul Dorian

Hurricane Helene has strengthened during the past 24 hours and is now classified as a strong category 2 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 110 mph. It should continue to intensify today as it closes in on Florida’s Gulf coast with the likelihood of reaching category 3 hurricane status featuring sustained winds of 111 mph or higher and category 4 designation is still on the table. Landfall is expected early tonight along Florida’s “Big Bend” Gulf coastal region as a “major” with a significant storm surge; especially, just to the right of the landfalling location where levels can reach 15-20 feet. With some acceleration expected later today, Helene will not have much time to weaken after landfall and, as such, it is likely to reach into southern Georgia as a hurricane during the wee hours of the morning. The lasting strength of Helene and its expected track into the Tennessee Valley assures significant impact inland to include the state of Georgia, and an especially vulnerable region is the southern Appalachian Mountains where upsloping winds can result in massive rainfall amounts of 1-2 feet and severe flash flooding.

By mid-day on Friday, the tropical system will become increasingly influenced by very strong “blocking” high pressure to the north and an upper-level trough of low pressure located in the southern Mississippi Valley. The tropical low will “rotate around” this upper-level trough of low pressure for a brief time in a pattern known to meteorologists as the “Fujiwhara effect” before it ultimately dissipates and gets absorbed by the upper-level low.

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10:15 AM - ****Hurricane Helene headed for Florida’s Gulf coast likely as a "major" with landfall early tonight...Georgia/southern Appalachians to be hit hard****

Paul Dorian

Hurricane Helene has strengthened during the past 24 hours and is now classified as a category 2 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 100 mph. It should continue to intensify today as it closes in on Florida’s Gulf coast with the likelihood of reaching category 3 hurricane status featuring sustained winds of 111 mph or higher. Landfall is expected early tonight along Florida’s “Big Bend” Gulf coastal region – likely as a “major” – with a significant storm surge; especially, just to the right of the landfalling location where levels can reach 15-20 feet. With some acceleration expected later today, Helene will not have much time to weaken after landfall and, as such, it is likely to reach into southern Georgia as a hurricane during the wee hours of the morning. The lasting strength of Helene and its expected track into the Tennessee Valley assures significant impact inland to include the state of Georgia, and an especially vulnerable region is the southern Appalachian Mountains where upsloping winds can result in massive rainfall amounts of 1-2 feet and serious flash flooding.

By mid-day on Friday, the tropical system will become increasingly influenced by very strong “blocking” high pressure to the north and an upper-level trough of low pressure located in the southern Mississippi Valley. The tropical low will “rotate around” this upper-level trough of low pressure for a brief time in a pattern known to meteorologists as the “Fujiwhara effect” before it ultimately dissipates and gets absorbed by the upper-level low.

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