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Blog

Weather forecasting and analysis, space and historic events, climate information

1:15 PM | ***Powerhouse storm to slam Pacific NW...significant storm coming to Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, Northeast US...multiple cold shots on the way central/eastern US***

Paul Dorian

The weather map is quite busy currently across North America with intense high pressure ridges combined with deep troughs of low pressure and on top of that we have some tropical moisture on the playing field as well. A deep trough over the northeastern Pacific Ocean will help to spawn a rapidly intensifying storm system that will slam into the Pacific Northwest from later today through tomorrow with hurricane-force winds, tremendous rainfall in low-lying areas, and substantial snowfall in the inland, higher elevation locations that will be on the order of several feet in some spots. This storm system will become a slow-mover and there will be lingering effects from northern California to Oregon and Washington all the way through the second half of the week.

Another upper-level trough will slide south and east during the next couple of days from the north-central states and deepen markedly as it reaches the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US by later Thursday. An initial low pressure system will head to the Great Lakes while a secondary forms near the northern Mid-Atlantic coastline. This unfolding storm system will also become a slow-mover during the latter part of the week and will bring with it beneficial rains, accumulating snows across inland, higher elevation locations, and a prolonged period of strong NW winds.

Looking ahead, there are signs for multiple cold air outbreaks to make their way from northern Canada into the central and eastern US as we push through the remainder of November and into the early part of December...quite a winter look to the overall pattern that should include threats of snow as well.

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7:00 AM | ***Beneficial steady rain from early tonight into early Thursday...maybe a thunderstorm...windy, colder on Thursday and Friday with instability showers...first snowflakes possible***

Paul Dorian

High pressure will generally remain in control of the weather during the next couple of days, but then a complex low pressure storm system will dominate the scene later in the week. An upper-level trough of low pressure will push into the central US by mid-week and then deepen by later Thursday as it slides into the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US. At this point, the deep upper-level trough will become quite a slow-mover and “forced” to rotate around the northeastern states for a few days thanks to intense blocking high pressure to the north that will be centered over the northeastern part of Canada. At the surface level, an initial low pressure system will push into the Great Lakes region, and then a secondary low will form somewhere near the northern Mid-Atlantic coastline during the latter part of the week.

The end result here will be occasional (and very beneficial) rain from later tomorrow into early Thursday likely in the range of 0.25” to 0.50” and there can be a thunderstorm or two mixed into the picture as a strong cold front pushes through the area. Occasional “instability” rain showers will be possible from Thursday afternoon through Friday night as the atmosphere remains quite unstable given the strong upper-level trough that will rotate around the northeastern states for awhile. As colder air becomes better established, snow and ice pellets can mix in with the “wraparound” showers from later Thursday through Friday in the some of the far N/W suburbs and look for significant accumulating snow across western Maryland and portions of West Virginia.

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7:00 AM | ***Rain from later tomorrow into early Thursday...windy, colder to follow with instability rain showers...snow and ice pellets can mix in at times***

Paul Dorian

High pressure will generally remain in control of the weather during the next couple of days, but then a complex low pressure storm system will dominate the scene later in the week. An upper-level trough of low pressure will push into the central US by mid-week and then deepen by later Thursday as it slides into the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US. At this point, the deep upper-level trough will become quite a slow-mover and “forced” to rotate around the northeastern states for a few days thanks to intense blocking high pressure to the north that will be centered over the northeastern part of Canada. At the surface level, an initial low pressure system will push into the Great Lakes region, and then a secondary low will form somewhere near the northern Mid-Atlantic coastline during the latter part of the week.

The end result here will be occasional (and very beneficial) rain from later tomorrow into early Thursday and there can be a thunderstorm or two mixed into the picture as a strong cold front pushes through the area. In fact, this is likely to be the most significant rainfall event in several weeks for this area with 0.50” to 1.00” on the table. Occasional “instability” rain showers will be possible from Thursday afternoon through Friday night as the atmosphere remains quite unstable given the strong upper-level trough that will rotate around the northeastern states for awhile. As colder air becomes better established, snow and ice pellets can mix in with the “wraparound” showers from later Thursday through Friday and look for accumulating snow in the Poconos.

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7:00 AM | **Much colder and windy today with the chance of snow showers...a quieter and much milder second half of the week*

Paul Dorian

A low pressure system is going to rotate around the base of a longwave upper-level trough today as it tracks from Utah to eastern Colorado and it can produce snow showers in the metro region. In addition to the chance of snow showers, today will be much colder than yesterday and quite windy with gusts up to 35 mph. The second half of the week will feature a warming trend and temperatures will climb back to above-normal levels.

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7:00 AM | ***Beneficial rain from later tomorrow into early Thursday...windy, colder conditions to follow on Thursday and Friday with instability showers ...snow and/or ice pellets can mix in***

Paul Dorian

High pressure will generally dominate the scene in the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US during the first half of the week, but then a complex low pressure storm system will dominate the scene later in the week. An upper-level trough of low pressure will push into the central US by mid-week and then deepen by later Thursday as it slides into the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US. At this point, the deep upper-level trough will become quite a slow-mover and “forced” to rotate around the northeastern states for a few days thanks to intense blocking high pressure to the north that will be centered over the northeastern part of Canada. At the surface level, an initial low pressure system will push into the Great Lakes region, and then a secondary low will form somewhere near the northern Mid-Atlantic coastline during the latter part of the week.

The end result here will be occasional (and very beneficial) rain from later tomorrow into early Thursday and there can be a thunderstorm or two mixed into the picture as a strong cold front pushes through the area. In fact, this is likely to be the most significant rainfall event in several weeks for this area with 0.75” to 1.25” on the table. Occasional “instability” rain showers will be possible from Thursday afternoon through Friday night as the atmosphere remains quite unstable given the strong upper-level trough that will rotate around the northeastern states for awhile. As colder air becomes better established, snow and ice pellets can mix in with the “wraparound” showers from later Thursday through Friday and look for significant accumulating snow across portions of upstate NY to the north and west of here.

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11:30 AM | **An active and unusual weather pattern across North America...”bomb cyclone” to slam into Pacific Northwest...significant late week storm to impact Great Lakes/Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US**

Paul Dorian

Quite an active and somewhat unusual weather pattern is developing across North America and one that will feature multiple intense upper-level ridges of high pressure and deep troughs of low pressure. One result of this overall pattern will be a powerful storm system that will slam into the Pacific Northwest from later tomorrow into Wednesday. This storm will feature explosive intensification with as much as a 70 millibar drop in 24 hours of its central pressure yielding the strength of a “category 4” hurricane and easily classifying it as a “bomb cyclone”. Another significant storm system will develop in this active weather pattern during the late week bringing with it rain, accumulating snows, and a sustained period of strong winds across the Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast US.

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7:00 AM | **Slow-moving storm system to bring us rain here late Wednesday into Thursday...strong NW winds, colder conditions to follow**

Paul Dorian

The first half of the new work week will be relatively quiet and mild, but the weather turns quite active later this week as a deepening upper-level trough dives into the Mid-Atlantic region. This strong upper-level trough will become a slow-mover thanks to strong blocking high pressure to the north over northeastern Canada. At the surface, an initial low pressure system will head towards the Great Lakes in the late week time period and then a secondary low should form near the northern Mid-Atlantic coastline.

The end result of this unfolding scenario should be occasional rain here from later Wednesday into Thursday morning and there is a slight chance of a thunderstorm. Scattered rain showers are then likely from Thursday afternoon through the day on Friday as the atmosphere will remain quite unstable and it is not out of the question that a few flakes or ice pellets mix in at times. In terms of temperatures, after a mild day on Wednesday ahead of the cold front, it turns noticeably colder on Thursday and it’ll remain cold on Friday with highs limited to the middle 40’s to close out the work week. The winds will become quite strong on the backside of this low pressure system from a northwesterly direction and should last all the from later Thursday through much of the upcoming weekend given the storm’s slow movement. One final note, skiers in the northeastern states may be happy after this late week event as early season accumulating snow is quite likely from upstate PA to upstate NY to interior New England.

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7:00 AM | *An unsettled next couple of days with occasional showers and thunderstorms*

Paul Dorian

The next couple of days will be unsettled across the region as a cold front swings through the Tennessee Valley bringing with it the chance for occasional showers and thunderstorms. Some of the rain on Tuesday can be on the heavy side as the front pushes through the region and there can be some gusty winds as well. The second half of the week will be quieter and colder following the passage of the cold frontal system.

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7:00 AM | **Slow-moving storm system to bring us rain here late Wednesday into Thursday...strong NW winds, colder conditions to follow**

Paul Dorian

The first half of the new work week will be relatively quiet and mild, but the weather turns quite active later this week as a deepening upper-level trough dives into the Mid-Atlantic region. This strong upper-level trough will become a slow-mover thanks to strong blocking high pressure to the north over northeastern Canada. At the surface, an initial low pressure system will head towards the Great Lakes in the late week time period and then a secondary low should form near the northern Mid-Atlantic coastline.

The end result of this unfolding scenario should be occasional rain here from later Wednesday into Thursday morning and there is a slight chance of a thunderstorm. Scattered rain showers are then likely from Thursday afternoon through the day on Friday as the atmosphere will remain quite unstable and it is not out of the question that a few flakes or ice pellets mix in at times. In terms of temperatures, after a mild day on Wednesday ahead of the cold front, it turns noticeably colder on Thursday and it’ll remain cold on Friday with highs limited to the middle 40’s to close out the work week. The winds will become quite strong on the backside of this low pressure system from a northwesterly direction and should last all the from later Thursday through much of the upcoming weekend given the storm’s slow movement. One final note, skiers in the northeastern states may be happy after this late week event as early season accumulating snow is quite likely from upstate PA to upstate NY to interior New England.

Read More

7:00 AM | **Slow-moving storm system to bring us rain here late Wednesday into Thursday...strong NW winds, colder conditions to follow**

Paul Dorian

The first half of the new work week will be relatively quiet and mild, but the weather turns quite active later this week as a deepening upper-level trough dives into the Mid-Atlantic region. This strong upper-level trough will become a slow-mover thanks to strong blocking high pressure to the north over northeastern Canada. At the surface, an initial low pressure system will head towards the Great Lakes in the late week time period and then a secondary low should form near the northern Mid-Atlantic coastline.

The end result of this unfolding scenario should be occasional rain here from later Wednesday into Thursday morning and there is a slight chance of a thunderstorm. Scattered rain showers are then possible on Thursday afternoon and evening as the atmosphere will remain quite unstable. In terms of temperatures, after a mild day on Wednesday ahead of the cold front, it turns noticeably cooler on Thursday and it’ll remain quite chilly on Friday with highs limited to the upper 40’s to close out the work week. The winds will become quite strong on the backside of this low pressure system from a northwesterly direction and should last all the from later Thursday through much of the upcoming weekend given the storm’s slow movement.

Read More