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Blog

Weather forecasting and analysis, space and historic events, climate information

12:00 PM | ***Slow-moving storm system to impact the Mid-Atlantic region...first snow in many spots along I-95 corridor...significant snow in many higher elevation locations...additional cold shots***

Paul Dorian

If you are a skier in the northeastern part of the country then this upcoming storm system will be quite good news as early season significant accumulating snow is likely in much of the Appalachian Mountain chain including in the region from West Virginia to the Laurel Highlands of southwestern PA and from the Poconos in northeastern PA to the Catskills and Adirondacks of upstate NY. In fact, snow is quite possible during this event all the way into the I-95 corridor and small accumulations are possible on Friday in some of the northern and western suburbs; especially, to the north of the PA/MD border.

A deepening trough of low pressure in the upper atmosphere will slide south and east to a position over the Mid-Atlantic by tomorrow night and this will help to spawn a (secondary) low pressure system near the northern Mid-Atlantic coastline. This system will become a slow-mover thanks to intense blocking high pressure to the north that will be parked over northeastern Canada. In addition to the threat for the first snows of the season, the northeastern states will experience very beneficial rainfall on the storm’s front end as a cold front pushes through from late today into early Thursday…and that won’t be the end of the precipitation.

Looking ahead, there are signs for multiple cold air outbreaks to make their way from northern Canada into the central and eastern US as we push through the remainder of November and into the early part of December.. It is quite a wintry look to this unfolding weather pattern that will include additional snow threats…perhaps one late next week right around Thanksgiving Day.

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7:00 AM | ***Beneficial rain from late today into early Thursday...maybe a thunderstorm...windy, colder on Thursday and Friday with instability showers...first snowflakes possible***

Paul Dorian

A developing storm system will begin to impact the region with beneficial rainfall from late today into early Thursday and there can be a thunderstorm mixed into the picture. This developing storm system will be a slow mover due to strong blocking high pressure to the north and its impacts here will continue from tomorrow afternoon through Friday with “wraparound” showers and persistently strong winds. From late tomorrow through Friday enough cold air could feed into the system for a mixing with or even a changeover to snow all the way down to the northern and western suburbs of DC. Significant snow is likely across western Maryland (Garrett County) during the next couple of days and also in the higher elevation locations of West Virginia.

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7:00 AM | ***Beneficial rain from early tonight into early Thursday...maybe a thunderstorm...windy, colder on Thursday and Friday with instability showers...first snowflakes likely***

Paul Dorian

A developing storm system will begin to impact the region with steady beneficial rain from early tonight into early Thursday and there can be a thunderstorm mixed into the picture. It is likely to turn out to be the highest rainfall totals from a single event that we’ve seen in quite awhile with 0.50” to 1.00” likely by early tomorrow. This developing storm system will be a slow mover due to strong blocking high pressure to the north and its impacts here will continue from tomorrow afternoon through Friday with “wraparound” showers and persistently strong winds. From late tomorrow through Friday enough cold air could feed into the system for a mixing with or even a changeover to snow all the way down to the Philly metro region. Significant snow is likely up across northeastern PA with several inches on the table for the Pocono Mountains...an early season gift for skiers.

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7:00 AM | ***Beneficial rain from tonight into early Thursday...maybe a thunderstorm...windy, colder on Thursday and Friday with instability showers...first snowflakes likely***

Paul Dorian

A developing storm system will begin to impact the region with rainfall from early tonight into Thursday and it is likely to turn out to be the highest rainfall totals that we’ve seen in quite awhile with 0.75” to 1.25” possible by morning. This developing storm system will be a slow mover due to strong blocking high pressure to the north and its impacts here will continue through Friday with “wraparound” showers and persistently strong winds. From tomorrow afternoon through Friday, instability rain showers are likely and enough cold air can wrap into the system for a mixing with or even a changeover to snow; especially, in the far northern and western suburbs. Significant snow is likely across some interior, higher elevation locations across northwestern NJ and upstate NY to include the Catskills and Adirondacks...an early season delight for skiers.

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1:15 PM | ***Powerhouse storm to slam Pacific NW...significant storm coming to Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, Northeast US...multiple cold shots on the way central/eastern US***

Paul Dorian

The weather map is quite busy currently across North America with intense high pressure ridges combined with deep troughs of low pressure and on top of that we have some tropical moisture on the playing field as well. A deep trough over the northeastern Pacific Ocean will help to spawn a rapidly intensifying storm system that will slam into the Pacific Northwest from later today through tomorrow with hurricane-force winds, tremendous rainfall in low-lying areas, and substantial snowfall in the inland, higher elevation locations that will be on the order of several feet in some spots. This storm system will become a slow-mover and there will be lingering effects from northern California to Oregon and Washington all the way through the second half of the week.

Another upper-level trough will slide south and east during the next couple of days from the north-central states and deepen markedly as it reaches the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US by later Thursday. An initial low pressure system will head to the Great Lakes while a secondary forms near the northern Mid-Atlantic coastline. This unfolding storm system will also become a slow-mover during the latter part of the week and will bring with it beneficial rains, accumulating snows across inland, higher elevation locations, and a prolonged period of strong NW winds.

Looking ahead, there are signs for multiple cold air outbreaks to make their way from northern Canada into the central and eastern US as we push through the remainder of November and into the early part of December...quite a winter look to the overall pattern that should include threats of snow as well.

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7:00 AM | ***Beneficial steady rain from early tonight into early Thursday...maybe a thunderstorm...windy, colder on Thursday and Friday with instability showers...first snowflakes possible***

Paul Dorian

High pressure will generally remain in control of the weather during the next couple of days, but then a complex low pressure storm system will dominate the scene later in the week. An upper-level trough of low pressure will push into the central US by mid-week and then deepen by later Thursday as it slides into the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US. At this point, the deep upper-level trough will become quite a slow-mover and “forced” to rotate around the northeastern states for a few days thanks to intense blocking high pressure to the north that will be centered over the northeastern part of Canada. At the surface level, an initial low pressure system will push into the Great Lakes region, and then a secondary low will form somewhere near the northern Mid-Atlantic coastline during the latter part of the week.

The end result here will be occasional (and very beneficial) rain from later tomorrow into early Thursday likely in the range of 0.25” to 0.50” and there can be a thunderstorm or two mixed into the picture as a strong cold front pushes through the area. Occasional “instability” rain showers will be possible from Thursday afternoon through Friday night as the atmosphere remains quite unstable given the strong upper-level trough that will rotate around the northeastern states for awhile. As colder air becomes better established, snow and ice pellets can mix in with the “wraparound” showers from later Thursday through Friday in the some of the far N/W suburbs and look for significant accumulating snow across western Maryland and portions of West Virginia.

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7:00 AM | ***Rain from later tomorrow into early Thursday...windy, colder to follow with instability rain showers...snow and ice pellets can mix in at times***

Paul Dorian

High pressure will generally remain in control of the weather during the next couple of days, but then a complex low pressure storm system will dominate the scene later in the week. An upper-level trough of low pressure will push into the central US by mid-week and then deepen by later Thursday as it slides into the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US. At this point, the deep upper-level trough will become quite a slow-mover and “forced” to rotate around the northeastern states for a few days thanks to intense blocking high pressure to the north that will be centered over the northeastern part of Canada. At the surface level, an initial low pressure system will push into the Great Lakes region, and then a secondary low will form somewhere near the northern Mid-Atlantic coastline during the latter part of the week.

The end result here will be occasional (and very beneficial) rain from later tomorrow into early Thursday and there can be a thunderstorm or two mixed into the picture as a strong cold front pushes through the area. In fact, this is likely to be the most significant rainfall event in several weeks for this area with 0.50” to 1.00” on the table. Occasional “instability” rain showers will be possible from Thursday afternoon through Friday night as the atmosphere remains quite unstable given the strong upper-level trough that will rotate around the northeastern states for awhile. As colder air becomes better established, snow and ice pellets can mix in with the “wraparound” showers from later Thursday through Friday and look for accumulating snow in the Poconos.

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7:00 AM | **Much colder and windy today with the chance of snow showers...a quieter and much milder second half of the week*

Paul Dorian

A low pressure system is going to rotate around the base of a longwave upper-level trough today as it tracks from Utah to eastern Colorado and it can produce snow showers in the metro region. In addition to the chance of snow showers, today will be much colder than yesterday and quite windy with gusts up to 35 mph. The second half of the week will feature a warming trend and temperatures will climb back to above-normal levels.

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7:00 AM | ***Beneficial rain from later tomorrow into early Thursday...windy, colder conditions to follow on Thursday and Friday with instability showers ...snow and/or ice pellets can mix in***

Paul Dorian

High pressure will generally dominate the scene in the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US during the first half of the week, but then a complex low pressure storm system will dominate the scene later in the week. An upper-level trough of low pressure will push into the central US by mid-week and then deepen by later Thursday as it slides into the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US. At this point, the deep upper-level trough will become quite a slow-mover and “forced” to rotate around the northeastern states for a few days thanks to intense blocking high pressure to the north that will be centered over the northeastern part of Canada. At the surface level, an initial low pressure system will push into the Great Lakes region, and then a secondary low will form somewhere near the northern Mid-Atlantic coastline during the latter part of the week.

The end result here will be occasional (and very beneficial) rain from later tomorrow into early Thursday and there can be a thunderstorm or two mixed into the picture as a strong cold front pushes through the area. In fact, this is likely to be the most significant rainfall event in several weeks for this area with 0.75” to 1.25” on the table. Occasional “instability” rain showers will be possible from Thursday afternoon through Friday night as the atmosphere remains quite unstable given the strong upper-level trough that will rotate around the northeastern states for awhile. As colder air becomes better established, snow and ice pellets can mix in with the “wraparound” showers from later Thursday through Friday and look for significant accumulating snow across portions of upstate NY to the north and west of here.

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11:30 AM | **An active and unusual weather pattern across North America...”bomb cyclone” to slam into Pacific Northwest...significant late week storm to impact Great Lakes/Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US**

Paul Dorian

Quite an active and somewhat unusual weather pattern is developing across North America and one that will feature multiple intense upper-level ridges of high pressure and deep troughs of low pressure. One result of this overall pattern will be a powerful storm system that will slam into the Pacific Northwest from later tomorrow into Wednesday. This storm will feature explosive intensification with as much as a 70 millibar drop in 24 hours of its central pressure yielding the strength of a “category 4” hurricane and easily classifying it as a “bomb cyclone”. Another significant storm system will develop in this active weather pattern during the late week bringing with it rain, accumulating snows, and a sustained period of strong winds across the Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast US.

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