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Blog

Weather forecasting and analysis, space and historic events, climate information

****An active February with multiple winter storms...mid-week ice threat in Mid-Atlantic...possible front end snow...back-end plain rain...similar scenario this weekend...snow threat next week****

Paul Dorian

February is now a few days old, and it looks like it will be a very active month with plenty of cold air around and it is likely to feature a polar vortex “split” and high-latitude blocking. There should be plenty of opportunities for snow, ice and rain in the Mid-Atlantic region as we progress through the month with just the next week or so likely to feature as many as three precipitation events. The first opportunity comes at mid-week, and it may turn out to be the first significant icing event in quite awhile for much of the Mid-Atlantic region with possible snow on the front end and plain rain on the back end. A similar scenario may take place this weekend with frozen precipitation possible on the front-end of the next storm system and plain rain on the back end. A third storm may threaten by the middle of next week and this one should have more cold air to work with raising the chance of accumulating snow in the Mid-Atlantic region.

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*The role of the weather on “The Day the Music Died” – February 3rd, 1959*

Paul Dorian

It was a little past 1 AM on February 3rd, 1959 when American musicians Buddy Holly, Ritchie Valens and J.P. “The Big Bopper” Richardson were killed in a plane crash near Clear Lake, Iowa along with pilot Roger Peterson.  Weather conditions were certainly contributing factors in the plane crash as there was poor visibility on that cold night with snow blowing across the runway. Hours before, Holly and his tour mates were on the eleventh night of their “Winter Dance Party” tour through the snow-covered Midwest.  It was a Monday and a school night, but 1,100 teenagers crammed into the Surf Ballroom in Clear Lake, Iowa for two sold out shows with the second one ending around midnight.  The event later became known as “The Day the Music Died” after singer-songwriter Don McLean referred to it as such in his 1971 song “American Pie” which paid homage to the tragedy of February 3rd, 1959. 

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7:00 AM | *70+ degrees for highs first half of the week*

Paul Dorian

It turns very mild around here for the next few days as south-to-southwest winds develop on the backside of high pressure pushing well to the east of here. Temperatures can peak each day at 70+ degrees right through the mid-week, but it does become more unsettled as the week progresses with an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms.

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6:15 AM | ***Becoming noticeably milder today...colder by mid-week with good chance for some icing before plain rain***

Paul Dorian

A warm front lifted through the region last night and today will become milder with afternoon temperatures likely reaching into the upper 50’s for highs. A colder air mass pushes in by mid-week and it’ll be supported by a strong high pressure system situated over New England. This is likely to set the stage for some frozen precipitation around here from later Wednesday into Wednesday night including a period of sleet and freezing rain. On Thursday, temperatures should climb to warm enough levels for plain rain in most of the Mid-Atlantic region. Looking ahead, there may be a somewhat similar scenario to deal with this weekend with the possibility of some frozen precipitation at the onset of a second system with plain rain to follow. Yet another system could threaten us with snow by the middle of next week as the overall pattern looks very active for the month of February.

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6:15 AM | ***Becoming milder today...colder by mid-week with good chance for some icing before plain rain and a similar scenario possible this weekend***

Paul Dorian

A warm front lifted through the region last night and today will become milder with afternoon temperatures likely reaching into the lower 50’s for highs. A colder air mass pushes in by mid-week and it’ll be supported by a strong high pressure system situated over New England. This is likely to set the stage for some frozen precipitation around here from late Wednesday into early Thursday including a period of sleet and freezing rain. On Thursday, temperatures should climb to warm enough levels for plain rain in most of the Mid-Atlantic region. Looking ahead, there may be a similar scenario to deal with this weekend with the possibility of some frozen precipitation later Saturday/Saturday night and then likely plain rain on Super Bowl Sunday. Yet another system could threaten us with snow by the middle of next week as the overall pattern looks very active for the month of February.

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6:15 AM | ***Becoming milder today...colder by mid-week with good chance for some icing before plain rain and a similar scenario possible this weekend***

Paul Dorian

A warm front lifted through the region last night and today will become milder with afternoon temperatures likely reaching into the upper 40’s for highs. A colder air mass pushes in by mid-week and it’ll be supported by a strong high pressure system situated over New England. This is likely to set the stage for some frozen precipitation around here from late Wednesday into early Thursday including a period of sleet and freezing rain. On Thursday, temperatures should climb to warm enough levels for plain rain in most of the Mid-Atlantic region. Looking ahead, there may be a similar scenario to deal with this weekend with the possibility of some frozen precipitation later Saturday/Saturday night and then likely plain rain on Super Bowl Sunday. Yet another system could threaten us with snow by the middle of next week as the overall pattern looks very active for the month of February.

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****A look ahead to the month of February…a polar vortex split, plenty of cold air around, and a very active pattern which includes the potential of significant icing in some cases****

Paul Dorian

February is now underway and it looks like it will be a very active month with plenty of cold air around and is likely to feature a stratospheric polar vortex split that can impact US temperatures all the way into March. There should be plenty of opportunities for snow, ice and rain in the Mid-Atlantic region and Northeast US as we progress through the new month with just the next week or so likely to feature as many as three precipitation events. Another player on the field that will have to be monitored this month will be the occasional appearance of the Southeast US high pressure ridge – often seen during La Nina winters – and this enhances the possibility of quite warm conditions across the southern states and also chances for severe weather.

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