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Blog

Weather forecasting and analysis, space and historic events, climate information

**An active tropical scene with Tropical Storm “Humberto” and the likely-to-be named “Imelda” which can impact the Bahamas this weekend and potentially the Southeast US**

Paul Dorian

The Atlantic Basin is quite active with three tropical systems of note as we head towards the end of September. There is a newly named Tropical Storm Humberto situated to the northeast of the Northern Leeward Islands, a likely-to-be named Imelda which is now located near the Dominican Republic, and a weakening Hurricane Gabrielle in the far eastern Atlantic Ocean. It is the likely-to-be named Imelda that may be of most concern at this point as it could threaten the Bahamas this weekend and potentially has a chance of impacting the Southeast US.

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6:00 AM | *Setting up for a nice weekend with plenty of sunshine on Saturday and Sunday and moderately warm conditions*

Paul Dorian

The weather remains quite unsettled today with the threat of showers and thunderstorms as an upper-level trough drops into the Great Lakes. After a possible lingering shower on Friday, the overall weather pattern will become more settled by the weekend with sunshine prevailing on both Saturday and Sunday and temperatures climbing into the low-to-mid 80’s for afternoon highs.  

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6:00 AM | **Occasional rain through tonight with embedded thunderstorms...some of the rain will be heavy...some of the storms can be strong-to-severe**

Paul Dorian

Low pressure has developed in the Ohio Valley and it will push northeastward to New England during the next 24 hours or so riding along a stalled-out frontal boundary zone. The combination of the low pressure system and front will bring numerous showers and thunderstorms to the Mid-Atlantic region through tonight…some of the rain will be heavy and some of the storms can be strong-to-severe. The weather remains somewhat unsettled for Friday and the upcoming weekend with the chance of a couple of showers on each day.

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6:00 AM | **Occasional rain through tonight with embedded thunderstorms...some of the rain will be heavy...some of the storms can be strong-to-severe**

Paul Dorian

Low pressure has developed in the Ohio Valley and it will push northeastward to New England during the next 24 hours or so riding along a stalled-out frontal boundary zone. The combination of the low pressure system and front will bring numerous showers and thunderstorms to the Mid-Atlantic region through tonight…some of the rain will be heavy and some of the storms can be strong-to-severe. The weather remains somewhat unsettled for Friday and the upcoming weekend with the chance of a few showers on each day.

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6:00 AM | **Occasional rain through tonight with embedded thunderstorms...some of the rain will be heavy...some of the storms can be strong-to-severe**

Paul Dorian

Low pressure has developed in the Ohio Valley and it will push northeastward to New England during the next 24 hours or so riding along a stalled-out frontal boundary zone. The combination of the low pressure system and front will bring numerous showers and thunderstorms to the Mid-Atlantic region through tonight…some of the rain will be heavy and some of the storms can be strong-to-severe. The weather remains somewhat unsettled for Friday and the upcoming weekend with the chance of a few showers on each day.

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**Two tropical systems to dance with each other off the east coast in coming days...”Fujiwhara effect” makes for a challenging forecast**

Paul Dorian

The Atlantic Basin is quite active as we head towards the end of September with three tropical systems currently on the playing field including a “major” Hurricane Gabrielle which is now racing off to the east-northeast and is no threat to the US. In fact, Hurricane Gabrielle could impact the Azores Islands and Portugal down the road in a weakened state after crossing over the cooler waters of the North Atlantic.

Meanwhile, the other two tropical systems pose more of a challenge in terms of forecasting their eventual paths and magnitudes. It appears quite likely that both systems will reach named tropical storm classification and potentially, both may climb to hurricane status. It also appears quite likely that these two systems will end up doing some sort of a dance around each other for awhile (“Fujiwhara effect”) and at least one may come uncomfortably close to the US east coast and we may not know the end of the story until we get ten or so days out from now.

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6:00 AM | **Afternoon showers likely and a possible thunderstorm...numerous showers and thunderstorms from tonight into tomorrow night...an inch or more of rainfall on the table**

Paul Dorian

A cold frontal system will inch its way across the region today and stall out just to our south before pushing back to the north later tomorrow as a warm front. Low pressure will develop in the Ohio Valley on Thursday and push towards the northeastern states riding along the frontal boundary zone. Another cold front slides through at week’s end to be followed by high pressure which will gradually build back into the region during the upcoming weekend.

As a result of this combination of fronts and low pressure systems, more rain is coming to the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor and this looks like a soaking rain event with an inch or more on the table. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely later today and then numerous showers and thunderstorms are on the way for later tonight, tomorrow and tomorrow night. There can be a few lingering showers on Friday and Saturday with plenty of clouds around and it should be generally dry on Sunday and Monday (one caveat on the expected generally dry conditions on Sunday and Monday…we will need to keep our eyes on a couple of tropical systems that should be over the western Atlantic this weekend).

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6:00 AM | *Afternoon showers are likely with possible thunderstorms...numerous showers and thunderstorms from tonight into tomorrow night*

Paul Dorian

A cold frontal system will inch its way across the region today and stall out just to our south before pushing back to the north later tomorrow as a warm front. Low pressure will develop in the Ohio Valley on Thursday and push towards the northeastern states riding along the frontal boundary zone. Another cold front slides through at week’s end to be followed by high pressure which will gradually build back into the region during the upcoming weekend.

As a result of this combination of fronts and low pressure systems, more rain is coming to the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor and this looks like a soaking rain event with an inch or more on the table. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely later today and then numerous showers and thunderstorms are on the way for later tonight, tomorrow and tomorrow night. There can be a few lingering showers on Friday and Saturday with plenty of clouds around and it should be generally dry on Sunday and Monday (one caveat on the expected generally dry conditions on Sunday and Monday…we will need to keep our eyes on a couple of tropical systems that should be over the western Atlantic this weekend).

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