“Melissa” became the first named tropical storm of the year so far in the Caribbean Sea and it had been moving westward at a fairly rapid clip until just recently. A dramatic slowdown has taken place with Tropical Storm Melissa as it has moved into an area with very weak winds in the atmosphere. The slow movement of TS Melissa may last for the next several days and it is occurring over some very warm water in the central Caribbean...fully capable of supporting further intensification. Environmental conditions will become quite supportive of intensification as well in coming days with overall wind shear likely to diminish. This combination of favorable water temperatures for intensification along with improving environmental conditions raises the chance that TS Melissa intensifies all the way to “major” hurricane status by late this weekend or early next week. Looking ahead to later next week, with a deepening trough of low pressure likely to form just inland, there certainly can be some interaction between the inland trough and the western Atlantic tropical system…stay tuned; especially, if a resident in the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US/New England.
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The next few days will feature decent weather conditions across the Tennessee Valley with some sunshine on each day and comfortable temperatures peaking in the lower 70’s on a daily basis. The weather becomes more unsettled this weekend with an increasing chance of showers by Saturday night and Sunday and that threat of rain will continue early next week.
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A cold front passed through the Mid-Atlantic region last night and today will turn out to be a cooler day than yesterday with a noticeable breeze and a mix of clouds and sun. A secondary cold front passes through the area later tomorrow and the end result of these frontal passages will be a stretch of cooler-than-normal conditions from today right through the upcoming weekend.
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A cold front passed through the Mid-Atlantic last night and today will turn out to be a cooler day than yesterday with breezy conditions and some sunshine returning to the area. A secondary cold front passes through the area later tomorrow and the end result of these frontal passages will be a stretch of cooler-than-normal conditions from today right through the upcoming weekend.
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Seasonal temperatures are likely during the next couple of days and there can be some shower activity from later tomorrow into tomorrow night. The weekend turns slightly milder, but a storm system will approach, and it could have an impact here by early next week bringing colder conditions to the area.
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A cold front passed through the Mid-Atlantic region last night and today will turn out to be a cooler day than yesterday with a noticeable breeze and a mix of sun and clouds. A secondary cold front passes through the area later tomorrow and the end result of these frontal passages will be a stretch of cooler-than-normal conditions from today right through the upcoming weekend.
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The European model run on Monday morning produced some stunningly high rainfall amounts of a foot or more in much of the Mid-Atlantic region for the 5-day period ending on Saturday, November 1st. Meanwhile, the Canadian model run from Monday night featured what is likely to be a hurricane (Melissa) producing accumulating snow over some of the higher elevations of the Northeast US late next week after it shifts northwest towards the New England coastline and encounters an unusually cold air mass. While odds are against either of these scenarios coming to fruition, they do suggest to me that the models are correctly sniffing out the potential for some energetic weather from later next week into the following week and there are several ingredients likely to come into play for just such a pattern. The ingredients include a powerful jet streak that will push into the western US this weekend from the northern Pacific Ocean, intense blocking in the upper part of the atmosphere that is likely to develop across central Canada by the middle of next week, a cold air intrusion into the US from Canada, and a likely hurricane over the western Atlantic Ocean.
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Yesterday featured strong winds across the region, but it turns out calmer today with lighter winds and seasonal temperatures. In fact, temperatures should remain close to seasonal averages for the remainder of the week and after dry conditions for the next couple of days, the threat of showers returns on Thursday.
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There will be a slight chance of showers on Tuesday across the Tennessee Valley, but for the most part, the reminder of the week looks quite decent. High temperatures this afternoon should be near the 75-degree mark and likely in the low-to-middle 70’s for the rest of the week.
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One cold front passed through the Mid-Atlantic region early yesterday and a second one arrives later tonight. This next cold front can cause some shower activity in the area during the nighttime hours, but nothing significant in terms of total rainfall amounts. Breezy and cool conditions will prevail on Wednesday behind the front to go along with increasing amounts of sunshine. Slightly cooler-than-normal conditions are likely to continue in the Mid-Atlantic region from Thursday through the upcoming weekend with plenty of sunshine on each day.
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