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Blog

Weather forecasting and analysis, space and historic events, climate information

***Numerous signals point to a colder-than-normal start to the winter season...a look at the MJO, NAO, AO, EPO, WPO, and a potential rare November Stratospheric Warming Event***

Paul Dorian

An Arctic air mass that originated near the North Pole has infiltrated the eastern states today and it will have an impact all the way down to southern Florida by Tuesday morning. In fact, temperatures on Tuesday morning are likely to bottom out in the 30’s across the central part of the Sunshine State and the 40’s in southern Florida. At the same time, many suburban locations along the Mid-Atlantic’s I-95 corridor region from DC-to-Philly-to-NYC will feature the first hard freeze of the season with overnight lows well down in the 20’s in many spots. There is accumulating snow to go along with this early week Arctic blast with favored areas including the Great Lakes, interior sections of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US, and the central Appalachians where a vigorous upper-level low is helping to destabilize the atmosphere in a big way.

While there will likely continue to be colder-than-normal temperatures across the northeastern states during the second half of the week, this winter-like pattern does not look like it’ll continue through November. In fact, there are signs for warmer-than-normal conditions to cover much of the nation from next week into the following week and it may include one or more severe weather outbreaks as well. Looking farther down the road, numerous signals point to a sustained colder-than-normal period to start the winter season as we transition into the month of December.

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*The role of the weather in “The Wreck of the Edmund Fitzgerald” fifty years ago today...November 10th, 1975*

Paul Dorian

Fifty years have passed since a major storm over the Great Lakes helped to sink the SS Edmund Fitzgerald on Lake Superior taking the lives of all 29 crew members on November 10th, 1975. When launched on June 7, 1958, it was the largest ship on North America's Great Lakes, and to this day she remains the largest to have sunk there. The Edmund Fitzgerald was in the worst possible location during the worst weather of the ferocious storm. The wind and waves from the west hit the freighter broadside as it tried to flee south to safety in Whitefish Bay. The Edmund Fitzgerald was loaded with about 26,000 tons of taconite pellets on November 9th, 1975, at Superior, Wisconsin and was bound for Detroit, Michigan when the storm hit.

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6:00 AM | ***Coldest air mass of the season next couple of days...first hard freeze of the season in many spots late tonight...strong winds add to the chill on Tuesday***

Paul Dorian

An Arctic cold front passed through the region last night and the coldest air of the season pushes into the eastern US for the next couple of days. Temperatures will peak this morning in the low-to-mid 50’s for highs and then drop to the upper 20’s later tonight for overnight lows….the first hard freeze of the season in many spots. It remains unseasonably cold on Tuesday and a tight pressure gradient will result in stiff winds around here making it feel even colder than the actual air temperature. While temperatures relax at mid-week, another cold front will usher in a chilly air mass for the latter part of the week with below-normal conditions remaining on Thursday, Friday, and Saturday.

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6:00 AM | ***Coldest air mass of the season next couple of days...first hard freeze of the season in many spots late tonight...strong winds add to the chill on Tuesday***

Paul Dorian

An Arctic cold front passed through the region last night and the coldest air of the season pushes into the eastern US for the next couple of days. Temperatures will likely hold in the upper 40’s this afternoon for highs and then drop to the upper 20’s later tonight for overnight lows….the first hard freeze of the season in many spots. It remains unseasonably cold on Tuesday and a tight pressure gradient will result in stiff winds around here making it feel even colder than the actual air temperature. While temperatures relax at mid-week, another cold front will usher in a chilly air mass for the latter part of the week with below-normal conditions remaining on Thursday, Friday, and Saturday.

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6:00 AM | ***An Arctic invasion next couple of days...temperatures struggle to reach 40 degrees today along with a stiff wind and overnight lows likely way down in the lower 20's***

Paul Dorian

An Arctic air mass has pushed into the eastern states and temperatures around here will be way below normal for this time of year. Despite some sunshine today, temperatures will struggle to reach the 40-degree mark for afternoon highs, and a stiff wind will make it feel even colder than the actual air temperatures. A hard and widespread freeze is in the offing for later tonight with overnight low temperatures likely way down into the lower 20’s.  

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6:00 AM | ***Coldest air mass of the season next couple of days...first hard freeze of the season in many spots late tonight...strong winds add to the chill on Tuesday***

Paul Dorian

An Arctic cold front passed through the region last night and the coldest air of the season pushes into the eastern US for the next couple of days. Temperatures will likely hold in the upper 40’s this afternoon for highs and then drop to the mid-to-upper 20’s later tonight for overnight lows….the first hard freeze of the season in many spots. It remains unseasonably cold on Tuesday and a tight pressure gradient will result in stiff winds around here making it feel even colder than the actual air temperature. While temperatures relax at mid-week, another cold front will usher in a chilly air mass for the latter part of the week with below-normal conditions remaining on Thursday, Friday, and Saturday.

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6:00 AM | ***A mild weekend and then an Arctic blast for the early part of next week***

Paul Dorian

A cold front crosses the region later tonight and it will bring some shower activity to the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor. Temperatures behind the cold frontal passage will not drop with highs on both days likely in the 60’s with some sun and Saturday and clouds on Sunday with the chance for rain. An Arctic cold front arrives on Sunday night and it’ll usher in the coldest air yet this season for the early part of next week and many areas will experience their first hard freeze on Monday night. The atmosphere will be quite unstable by later Monday with a vigorous low pressure system nearby in the upper part of the atmosphere. This setup could lead to some snow shower activity around here late Monday and accumulating snow is likely just downstream from the Great Lakes (e.g., western PA, western NY) and also in the higher elevations of the western Mid-Atlantic (e.g., western MD, western VA, West Virginia). Temperatures relax by mid-week, but there will be a shot of chilly air by late next week.

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6:00 AM | ***A mild weekend and then an Arctic blast for the early part of next week***

Paul Dorian

A cold front crosses the region later tonight and it will bring some shower activity to the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor. Temperatures behind the cold frontal passage will not drop with highs on both days likely in the 60’s with some sun and Saturday and clouds on Sunday with the chance for rain. An Arctic cold front arrives on Sunday night and it’ll usher in the coldest air yet this season for the early part of next week and many areas will experience their first hard freeze on Monday night. The atmosphere will be quite unstable by later Monday with a vigorous low pressure system nearby in the upper part of the atmosphere. This setup could lead to some snow shower activity around here late Monday and accumulating snow is likely just downstream from the Great Lakes (e.g., western PA, western NY) and also in the higher elevations of the western Mid-Atlantic (e.g., western MD, western VA, West Virginia). Temperatures relax by mid-week, but there will be a shot of chilly air by late next week.

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6:00 AM | ***A mild weekend and then an Arctic blast for the early part of next week***

Paul Dorian

A cold front crosses the region later tonight and it will bring some shower activity to the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor. Temperatures behind the cold frontal passage will not drop with highs on both days likely in the 60’s with some sun and Saturday and clouds on Sunday with the chance for rain. An Arctic cold front arrives on Sunday night and it’ll usher in the coldest air yet this season for the early part of next week and many areas will experience their first hard freeze on Monday night. The atmosphere will be quite unstable by late Monday with a vigorous low pressure system nearby in the upper part of the atmosphere. This setup could lead to some snow shower activity around here later Monday and accumulating snow is likely just downstream from the Great Lakes (e.g., western PA, western NY) and also in the higher elevations of the western Mid-Atlantic (e.g., western MD, western VA, West Virginia). Temperatures relax by mid-week, but there will be a shot of chilly air by late next week.

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