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Blog

Weather forecasting and analysis, space and historic events, climate information

6:00 AM | ***Chance of some PM snow on Friday with Arctic front...maybe a snow squall...bitter cold weekend with powerful winds***

Paul Dorian

Temperatures climbed above freezing on Tuesday for the first time in awhile in many spots and this allowed for some melting of the “snowcrete” that has been stuck in place in recent days. Yesterday’s “warmup” is the good news…the bad news is that much colder air returns by tonight and we’re headed for a bitter cold weekend in the Mid-Atlantic region. The next weather system of note will be a strong Arctic cold front that arrives later in the day on Friday and it can produce some snow during the afternoon and evening hours…perhaps even a snow squall. The passage of the late week Arctic front will result in a direct discharge of Arctic air from eastern Canada and temperatures are likely to be confined to the mid-to-upper 20’s for afternoon highs. In addition, the winds will be powerful on both Saturday and Sunday as the result of a very tight pressure gradient across the northeastern states and wind chill levels will be below zero at times. Another clipper system will drop southeast on Sunday from the Great Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic and it can produce snow showers in parts of the area.

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6:00 AM | ***Chance of some PM snow on Friday with Arctic front...maybe a snow squall...bitter cold weekend with powerful winds***

Paul Dorian

Temperatures climbed above freezing on Tuesday for the first time in awhile in many spots and this allowed for some melting of the “snowcrete” that has been stuck in place in recent days. Yesterday’s “warmup” is the good news…the bad news is that much colder air returns by tonight and we’re headed for a bitter cold weekend in the Mid-Atlantic region. The next weather system of note will be a strong Arctic cold front that arrives later in the day on Friday and it can produce some snow during the afternoon and evening hours…perhaps even a snow squall. The passage of the late week Arctic front will result in a direct discharge of Arctic air from eastern Canada and temperatures are likely to be confined to the mid-to-upper teens for afternoon highs. In addition, the winds will be powerful on both Saturday and Sunday as the result of a very tight pressure gradient across the northeastern states and wind chill levels will be below zero at times. Another clipper system will drop southeast on Sunday from the Great Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic and it can produce snow showers in parts of the area.

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6:00 AM | ***Chance of some PM snow on Friday with Arctic front...maybe a snow squall...bitter cold weekend with powerful winds***

Paul Dorian

Temperatures climbed above freezing on Tuesday for the first time in awhile in many spots and this allowed for some melting of the “snowcrete” that has been stuck in place in recent days. Yesterday’s “warmup” is the good news…the bad news is that much colder air returns by tonight and we’re headed for a bitter cold weekend in the Mid-Atlantic region. The next weather system of note will be a strong Arctic cold front that arrives later in the day on Friday and it can produce some snow during the afternoon and evening hours…perhaps even a snow squall. The passage of the late week Arctic front will result in a direct discharge of Arctic air from eastern Canada and temperatures are likely to be confined to upper teens for afternoon highs. In addition, the winds will be powerful on both Saturday and Sunday as the result of a very tight pressure gradient across the northeastern states and wind chill levels will be below zero at times. Another clipper system will drop southeast on Sunday from the Great Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic and it can produce snow showers in parts of the area.

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**Keeping a close eye on the sun**

Paul Dorian

Solar cycle 25 has potentially passed through its maximum phase during the latter part of 2025 (don’t really know for sure until after the fact), but it continues to be very active time with lots of sunspot activity in recent weeks. One particular sunspot region known officially as AR4366 has grown rapidly in recent days and it has become the most active sunspot of solar cycle 25. This sunspot region is now more than ten times wider than Earth and is moving into a position that more directly faces our planet. The rapid growth of AR4366 has made the sunspot region unstable and it has indeed unleashed dozens of solar flares during the past few days. More explosions are quite likely and - given its movement in the near-term - all eyes are closely monitoring the situation.

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6:00 AM | ***Some snow later today/tonight...more snow likely on Friday...very cold weekend on the way***

Paul Dorian

Weak low pressure will head in this direction today and it can produce some snow around here by later in the day and tonight with small accumulations on the table of a coating to an inch. The next weather system of note will be a strong Arctic cold front that arrives at the end of the week and it can produce some snow in the Mid-Atlantic region during the afternoon and evening hours on Friday. The passage of the late week Arctic front will result in a bitter cold weekend in the DC metro region with temperatures likely to be confined to the middle 20’s for afternoon highs on both Saturday and Sunday. In addition, the winds will be powerful on both days as the result of a tight pressure gradient across the northeastern states and the combination of the bitter cold and strong winds will produce much lower wind chill values. Looking ahead, it does appear that, for the first time in awhile, milder weather might just make it all the way into the northeastern states by the second half of next week.

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6:00 AM | *An increasing chance of showers for the PM hours*

Paul Dorian

There will be an increasing chance for showers today as weak low pressure moves in this direction from the middle of the country, but the remainder of the week should be rain-free across the Tennessee Valley. In fact, the dry weather pattern setting up at mid-week can last all the way into the early part of next week and it will be accompanied by mild conditions on Friday, Saturday and Sunday.

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6:00 AM | ***Some snow later today/tonight...more snow likely on Friday...very cold weekend on the way***

Paul Dorian

Weak low pressure will head in this direction today and it can produce some snow around here tonight with small accumulations on the table of a coating to an inch. The next weather system of note will be a strong Arctic cold front that arrives at the end of the week and it can produce some snow in the Mid-Atlantic region during the afternoon and evening hours on Friday. The passage of the late week Arctic front will result in a bitter cold weekend in the Philly metro region with temperatures likely to be confined to the teens for afternoon highs on both Saturday and Sunday. In addition, the winds will be powerful on both days as the result of a tight pressure gradient across the northeastern states and the combination of the bitter cold and strong winds will produce dangerously low wind chill values. Looking ahead, it does appear that, for the first time in awhile, milder weather might just make it all the way into the northeastern states by the second half of next week.

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6:00 AM | **Weak low pressure stays to our south today...some snow likely on Friday with Arctic front...bitter cold weekend on the way**

Paul Dorian

Weak low pressure will head in this direction today and it can produce some snow in the southern Mid-Atlantic by tonight, but probably not this far to the north. The next weather system of note will be a strong Arctic cold front that arrives later Friday and it can produce some snow in the Mid-Atlantic region during the afternoon and evening hours on Friday. The passage of the late week Arctic front will result in a bitter cold weekend in the NYC metro region with temperatures likely to be confined to the teens for afternoon highs. In addition, the winds will be powerful on both weekend days as the result of a tight pressure gradient across the northeastern states and the combination of the bitter cold and strong winds will produce much lower wind chill values. Looking ahead, it does appear that, for the first time in awhile, milder weather might just make it all the way into the northeastern states by the second half of next week.

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*The role of the weather on “The Day the Music Died” – February 3rd, 1959*

Paul Dorian

It was a little past 1 AM on February 3rd, 1959 when American musicians Buddy Holly, Ritchie Valens and J.P. “The Big Bopper” Richardson were killed in a plane crash near Clear Lake, Iowa along with pilot Roger Peterson.  Weather conditions were certainly contributing factors in the plane crash as there was poor visibility on that cold night with snow blowing across the runway. Hours before, Holly and his tour mates were on the eleventh night of their “Winter Dance Party” tour through the snow-covered Midwest.  It was a Monday and a school night, but 1,100 teenagers crammed into the Surf Ballroom in Clear Lake, Iowa for two sold out shows with the second one ending around midnight.  The event later became known as “The Day the Music Died” after singer-songwriter Don McLean referred to it as such in his 1971 song “American Pie” which paid homage to the tragedy of February 3rd, 1959. 

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