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Blog

Weather forecasting and analysis, space and historic events, climate information

Filtering by Category: DC

11:15 AM (Thurs) | **Rain and/or snow showers later Fri./Fri. night in the Mid-Atlantic due to “clipper” system and an ocean storm…small grassy accumulations possible tomorrow night in some spots**

Paul Dorian

A strong “clipper” system will drop southeastward into the Mid-Atlantic region on Friday and it’ll feature some rather cold air in the upper part of the atmosphere. At the same time, the southern storm that continues today to produce significant rainfall in the SE US will intensify after it moves out over the open waters of the western Atlantic. In fact, this storm could intensify to a point where it is produces hurricane-force winds by tomorrow night in the western Atlantic. While this ocean storm will be situated well off the east coast, it’ll still have an influence in the Mid-Atlantic region as an inverted trough (aka “norlun” trough) will extend from the low pressure center all the way back to the Mid-Atlantic. The combination of the “clipper” system in the northern stream and the inverted trough associated with the ocean storm is likely to lead to rain and/or snow showers in the Mid-Atlantic later tomorrow and tomorrow night. In some “norlun” trough cases, small-scale heavier precipitation bands can develop and we’ll have to closely monitor that possibility late tomorrow and tomorrow night.

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7:00 AM | *"Clipper" system and an ocean storm to result in rain and/or snow showers activity on Friday and Friday night...spring fever alert for Monday*

Paul Dorian

A strong “clipper” system will drop southeastward on Friday across the Great Lakes and into the northeastern part of the nation and it’ll create lots of instability in the atmosphere around here. At the same time, the southern storm that continues to produce significant rainfall in the southern states will intensify as it moves off the east coast and out over the western Atlantic. While this storm will be well off the east coast by late Friday, there can be an inverted trough (aka “norlun” trough) extending from the low pressure center all the way back to the Mid-Atlantic region which will also contribute to some instability in the atmosphere. The combination of the “clipper” system and the inverted trough is likely to lead initially to rain on Friday and then some rain and/or snow showers are likely on Friday night with small grassy accumulations possible in the far northern suburbs. The weekend will start off on the chilly and dry side, but a big time warm up will take place early next week. In fact, Monday will turn out to be a "spring fever" alert type of day with sunshine and afternoon highs well up in the 60's.

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2:10 PM (Wed) | *“Clipper” system and an inverted trough (aka “norlun” trough) to bring rain and/or snow showers to the Mid-Atlantic/NE US…possible small-scale heavier bands of precipitation*

Paul Dorian

A strong “clipper” system will drop southeastward across the Great Lakes on Friday and it’ll feature some quite cold air in the upper part of the atmosphere. At the same time, the southern storm that continues today to produce significant rainfall from Texas to the Carolinas will intensify after it moves into the western Atlantic. While this storm will be situated well off the east coast by later Friday, there can be an inverted trough of low pressure (aka “norlun” trough) extending from the low pressure center all the way back to the Mid-Atlantic region which can also contribute to some instability in the atmosphere. The combination of the “clipper” system and the inverted trough is likely to lead to rain and/or snow showers on Friday and Friday night and we’ll have to closely monitor the situation to see if any heavier bands of precipitation develop; especially, across places like eastern PA and NJ.

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7:00 AM | *Quite windy today following nighttime cold frontal passage*

Paul Dorian

A cold front passed through the region last night, but the air behind it will not be all that chilly for today. However, the winds will pick up noticeably today from a northwesterly direction and can gust to 30 mph or so. High pressure from our west will take control of the weather for later today, tonight and Thursday and then it will push offshore tomorrow night. A strong "clipper" low pressure system will then drop southeastward across the Great Lakes region likely resulting in some rain shower activity around here on Friday and Friday night. The weekend starts off on the chilly side, but a big warm up takes place early next week.

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3:20 PM (Tuesday) | *Possible brief downpours tonight and an embedded thunderstorm…”clipper” system to bring rain and/or snow showers to the Mid-Atlantic/NE US on Friday/Friday night*

Paul Dorian

An area of showers and embedded thunderstorms has developed across eastern Ohio and West Virginia associated with a cold frontal system and they’ll advance to the east over the next few hours. By later this evening, brief downpours will be possible in the I-95 corridor region and there can be an embedded strong thunderstorm or two as well. High pressure will take over for much of Wednesday and Thursday, but then a strong “clipper” system will create instability in the Mid-Atlantic/NE US on Friday and Friday night with the threat of rain and/or snow showers.

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7:00 AM | **Rain returns later today/early tonight and there can be some strong thunderstorm activity as well**

Paul Dorian

A strong wave of upper-level energy is pushing across the Midwest this morning and it'll move overhead late in the day and early tonight. As a result, clouds will increase this morning after a bit of a break and rain returns later in the day and continues into early tonight. In addition, there may be enough instability in the atmosphere by late today and early tonight for some strong thunderstorms to form in the I-95 corridor. A cold front sweeps through the region in the overnight hours and tomorrow will turn out noticeably cooler than today and quite windy. A strong clipper system will combine with a southern stream low pressure system in the late week to possibly result in some rain shower activity anytime from Thursday night into Friday night and perhaps some flakes can mix in at times.

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12:00 PM (Monday) | *Monitoring a setup for the late week that will feature a southern storm heading towards the east coast and a northern system that’ll be digging southeast across the Great Lakes*

Paul Dorian

A strong wave of energy is sitting off the coast of southern California at mid-day Monday and it’ll push eastward across northern Mexico and then into Texas by mid-week. This upper-level system will help to spawn the development of a strong surface low pressure system in Texas by early Wednesday and this storm will spread significant rainfall to the southern states from Texas to the Carolinas in the Wednesday/Thursday time period. By late Thursday, the southern low will push towards the Carolina coastline at the same time a northern stream wave of energy drops southeastward across the Great Lakes. This two upper-level features will likely phase together at the end of the week, but it’s a little too early to tell the exact timing and placement of the phase which will have an impact as to how far north and west the southern storm’s precipitation shield can extend. Temperatures are likely to be borderline in the Mid-Atlantic/NE US at the end of the week with respect to rain versus snow; however, colder air will be sitting just to the northwest and it certainly can feed in making this an unfolding scenario to closely monitor in coming days.

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7:00 AM | *Much milder today and it'll stay quite mild right into the mid-week*

Paul Dorian

A warming trend will intensify today and it’ll stay quite mild into the mid-week. Temperatures today should climb to the lower 60's this afternoon and then should do a repeat performance on Tuesday. A weak disturbance will bring us the chance for showers later today, tonight and on Tuesday, but it should turn out to be mainly dry at mid-week. A cooling trend will take place later in the week and we'll have to monitor two systems as the week closes out: one system heading to a position off the east coast and a second dropping southeastward across the Great Lakes.

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11:45 AM (Friday) | *Potential major rain event next week from the Lower Mississippi Valley to the eastern US*

Paul Dorian

The weekend will turn out to be quite cold for this time of year in the Mid-Atlantic region and Northeast US, but a warming trend will begin on Sunday across the Mississippi Valley. At the same time, a strong wave of energy in the upper part of the atmosphere will crash into California and this will become one key player in the eastern half of the nation by the middle of next week. The combination of warmer and increasingly humid air and strong energy aloft may very well result in a major rain event next week from the Lower Mississippi Valley to the eastern US.

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7:00 AM | *Still breezy and cold today as we close out the work week and there can be a couple of snow and/or rain showers*

Paul Dorian

A rather tight pressure gradient remains across the Mid-Atlantic region today and this will lead to continued breezy conditions with temperatures remaining on the cold side of normal for late February. A weak disturbance may cause a few rain and/or snow showers today and then a reinforcing shot of cold air will arrive tonight perhaps with a snow shower. As a result, the weekend promises to start off with colder-than-normal conditions, but a warming trend will begin on Sunday. This warming trend will see a return to the 60’s for highs by Tuesday, but the moderation in temperatures will come with an increasing chance of showers.

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