The 2020 Atlantic Basin tropical season has gotten off to a very busy start and a parade of systems is going to keep it busy right through the remainder of the month of August. There are currently two tropical systems in the Atlantic Basin which are being closely monitored and both are likely to reach tropical storm status in coming days. A third tropical wave has reached the west coast of Africa and it looks quite impressive on satellite imagery and there is yet another wave situated over the central part of Africa. A “teleconnection” index known as the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) which tracks an eastward-moving tropical disturbance supports the idea for increased tropical activity as we progress through the rest of August. In addition, the latter part of August is from a “climatological” point-of-view, a time of year when tropical activity tends to ramp up as sea surface temperatures climb towards their peak supporting the formation and intensification of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Basin.
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A disturbance aloft will produce some shower activity this morning in the Mid-Atlantic region, but high pressure should resume control this afternoon and result in clearing skies. Temperatures today will hold in the lower 80's for afternoon highs and again on Thursday and then top out in the low-to-mid 80's at week's end. A series of additional disturbances will keep it somewhat unsettled here from Friday through the upcoming weekend.
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Today begins with quite comfortable temperatures and humidity levels following the overnight passage of a cool frontal system which will slowly sag to the south of here later in the day. An upper-level disturbance can result in some rain activity late tonight and early Wednesday, but then high pressure will build back into the region with clearing skies expected tomorrow afternoon. Temperatures will remain rather comfortable during the next few days with a reinforcing relatively cool air mass arriving here tomorrow night.
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The overall weather pattern is shaping up to feature cooler weather in the eastern US where temperatures will be well below-normal at times in coming days and very hot weather in the western US where numerous record highs will be challenged. A large upper-level trough of low pressure will extend from eastern Canada to the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week at the same time high pressure ridging will intensify over the Southwest US. The transition to the cooler weather in the eastern US has come about with plenty of rainfall and the buildup of heat in the western US has come with an increase in wildfire activity that often ramps up during this time of year.
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Humidity levels remain rather high this morning and the combination of this moist air mass and a nearby stalled out frontal system will likely lead to scattered showers and thunderstorms later today and tonight. The chance of showers and thunderstorms will continue on Saturday and then likely increase tomorrow night and Sunday as low pressure rides up along the stalled out frontal boundary zone. Some of the rain that falls from tomorrow night into Sunday can be heavy at times and localized flooding may become an issue once again. Temperatures over the next few days will be rather comfortable for this time of year as strong high pressure builds across southeastern Canada and produces a northeasterly flow of air around here.
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The overall weather pattern will remain very unsettled in parts of the Mid-Atlantic region right though the upcoming weekend with the threat for more torrential downpours and localized flash flooding; especially, south of the PA/MD border. The combination of an extremely humid air mass, a stalled out frontal boundary zone, and multiple low pressure systems should provide enough “lift” in the atmosphere to continue to produce heavy rainfall with rain rates of 2+ inches per hour. Given the already very well-saturated grounds, this additional rainfall can lead to some serious localized flash flooding conditions. With limited wind flow in the lower atmosphere, any shower or thunderstorm that develops in this pattern will be slow-moving and potentially resulting in a few inches of rain over a relatively short period of time.
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The overall weather pattern will remain quite unsettled around here over the next few days with the threat for more torrential downpours and localized flash flooding. The combination of an extremely humid air mass, a stalled out frontal boundary zone, and multiple low pressure systems should be able to provide enough “lift” in the atmosphere to result in additional heavy rainfall and given the already well-saturated grounds, this can lead to flash flooding conditions. As far as temperatures are concerned, it will not be as warm today as recent days and below-normal temperatures should be the rule for Friday and the upcoming weekend as strong high pressure builds across southeastern Canada.
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The overall weather pattern will remain quite unsettled in the Mid-Atlantic region over the next several days with the threat for more torrential downpours with rates of 2+ inches per hour and flash flooding conditions. The combination of an extremely humid air mass, a stalled out frontal boundary zone, and multiple low pressure systems should be able to provide enough “lift” in the atmosphere to result in heavy rainfall in coming days and given the already well-saturated grounds, this can lead to some serious flash flooding. In fact, there were torrential downpours in the pre-dawn hours across northern Virginia that resulted in damage to roadways in places like Manassas Park and the entire DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor remains under “flash flood watches” as a result of the potential for more heavy rainfall and saturated grounds.
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An unsettled second half of the week begins today in the DC metro region and lasts right through the upcoming weekend. A weak frontal system will stall out nearby later today and several areas of low pressure will ride along the boundary zone in coming days. As a result, there will be a good chance of showers and possible PM thunderstorms on a daily basis through Sunday and any rain can be heavy at times given the high available amounts of moisture in the atmosphere. Flash flooding is a concern given the potential of some heavy rainfall and the already well-saturated grounds from recent soaking rains. In addition to the increased chances for rain, this unsettled weather pattern will bring about a cool down as we progress through the week with cooler-than-normal highs in the low-to-mid 80’s by week’s end and likely continuing this weekend as well.
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An unsettled second half of the week is coming to the Mid-Atlantic region as a weak frontal system will stall out in nearby proximity. In addition to the stalled out frontal boundary zone, there will be several areas of low pressure that develop and track along this front right through the upcoming weekend. As a result, the chance of showers and thunderstorms will be quite high on a daily basis from tomorrow through Sunday and temperatures will trend downward as the week progresses.
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